'THE EDGE' (COMING SOON!!) |
Josh Hamilton (TX) – Not a lot of big-time power amongst the top outfielders on the AL side this year, for that reason I give Hamilton the slightest nod for the top spot. My only worry on Hamilton was that he seemed to have lost some of his mojo in that home run contest last July, before the All-Star break Josh was roaring along at a torrid RBI-per-game pace. But even with the mortal second half Hamilton still finished with a cool 130 RBI.
Grady Sizemore (CLE) – Like Hanley Ramirez, Sizemore's was valuable enough with stolen base numbers, but his power has kind of snuck up on everyone – 33 HR to go along with 38 steals is quite impressive. If Sizemore can pick up on the batting average a little he would be the complete package. A sore groin has knocked Sizemore out of the World Baseball Classic, but that shouldn't lower his value for this year too much – but keep tabs on his progress before your draft/auction. 
Carlos Quentin (CWS) – One of the great late-round finds of 2008, Quentin finished with 36 HR/100 RBI and a .571 slugging percentage despite missing most of the month of September. At age 26 and playing in one of the majors best offensive parks, there shoudn't be much risk of a dropoff. 
Jason Bay (BOS) – Sometimes it's all about location. Being constantly pitched around in the Pittsburgh lineup two years ago, Bay was held to a .247 average and was a bit banged up as well. Then there were the 49 games Bay had in Boston the final two months of '08 - .293 average/39 runs/9 HR/37 RBI. And his numbers in Pittsburgh the first four months were also along the same statistical lines. You think Boston misses Manny??? You think Bay misses the Pirates?? This is a match in fantasy heaven – look for Bay to rack up big numbers in his first full season at Fenway. 
Vladimir Guerrero (ANG) – Sure there has been some slippage. You won't see Vlad steal 30 bases anymore and his RBI's plummeted to 91 after seasons of 116 and 125. However Vlad's slugging percentage (.521) wasn't far off that of previous seasons and Guerrero still produced a .300+ average. Look for Vlad to again hit .300 with 30 HR and 100+ RBI, he will be a relative bargain this year - but also realized that he recently confessed to be one year older (34) than recently listed. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) – Had some bumps in the road in his first full season, and saw some time on the bench as a result. Ellsbury finished the season though with a AL leading 50 stolen bases and hit .315 after August 1. Ellsbury is slated to play full-time now and the left-hander actually hits lefties (.295) better than righties (.275) so there should be no worry about a platoon. Even if he doesn't pick up on his power numbers, Jacoby will still be good for a bushel-ful of runs at the top of the Red Sox lineup. 
Curtis Granderson (DET) – For all the sheer speed he possesses, you would expect a bit more than the 12 stolen bases Granderson had last year. However Granderson has hit 20+ home runs two years running while scoring 122 and 112 (despite missing three weeks) runs. Granderson does better in leagues that reward total bases due to the immense amount of doubles and triples he produces. 
Carl Crawford (TB) – In recent years Crawford has been #1 or #2 on tha AL list, he obviously slides a bit after an injury-marred 2008 campaign. After hitting 18 HR in 2006, many thought his power would improve much like Grady Sizemore. In fact it has not, furthermore, his stolen base total is beginning to dip and may end up with closer to 30 steals this year than the 45+ steals he racked up for five years straight. 
Matt Holliday (OAK) – Early in the off-season Holliday remarked to a Denver paper that he did not want to spend his career on a team waiting for a 'perfect storm' once every ten years. Days after that went to press, the Rockies dealt Holliday to Oakland, an organization that is going to need to see a Category 5 slam into the Bay Area before they get a good look at seeing a World Series again. Needless to say this is going to put a dent into Holliday's old numbers. Here is what Matt did at Coors Field the past three years: 2006 - .373 avg/.692 slug/70 runs/22 HR/78 RBI, '07 - .376/.722/67/67/25/82, '08 - .332/.584/62/15/59. Now on the road: '06 - .280/.485/49/12/36, '07 - .301/.485/53/11/55, '08 - .308/.486/45/10/29. The reason Holliday is still near the top of most draft boards is partly because he exploded with 28 stolen bases last year, doubling his previous career high of 14 – and his offensive numbers are still pretty good away from the performance-enhancer known as playing at 5,200 feet. Still I just don't see much good that can come from moving to a new league in a West-Coast pitchers park, although Matt could very well be dealt again at the trade deadline. If you're fine drafting or bidding for a .300 average, 20 HR, 90 RBI, and MAYBE 20 steals, that's what Matt will be worth – just don't pay a dollar more than that. B.J. Upton (TB) – Another player who I think will be slightly overvalued on draft day. Upton plummeted from 24 to a mere nine home runs last year, although his stolen bases doubled from 22 to 44. However Upton rediscovered his power stroke in Tampa's post-season run, hitting seven out in 16 games. Upton is coming off off-season shoulder surgery, and is questionable for Opening Day. With a top outfield pick I would like to go with someone who I know I'm going to get a potential six months of production from, as opposed to five or even 5 ½ months. At the very least monitor Upton's progress from the Grapefruit Circuit before draft day arrives. 
Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) – As I say every year, about as safe and as conservative a pick as you are going to get. As the Mariners season spiraled out of control towards 100 losses last season, teammates called out an 'un-named player' to the ridiculous accusation that this player was the type who is happier racking up three hits in a loss than going hitless in a win. We figure Ichiro was the un-named player because it sure the hell couldn't of been Richie Sexson. And what if it is true?? Fantasy owners will take someone who racks up nearly 700 AB's, hits over .300, scores 100 runs, and steals 40 bases even if the players real-life team goes 0-162. But safe to say Ichiro is the last of Seattle's problems. There is concern for decline in the not too distant future though, Ichiro turned 35 in the off-season. Magglio Ordonez (DET) – After a career year hitting .363 and driving in an incredible 139 runs, Magglio fell to much more mortal numbers (.317/72/21/103) last year. At age 35 Ordonez is far more likely to repeat the '08 numbers rather than the '07 MVP-type campaign. The good news is that Magglio has shaken off his injury-prone rap the past three years in the D. Jermaine Dye (CWS) – He's had some years in his career when his batting average has not been up to snuff, but there have been other times in two of the past three years where Dye has been on fire, we saw a good stretch of that last year when Dye hit 30 of his 34 home runs from May 1 to August 31. Dye is another player however who just turned 35 so a downturn could occur in the not-too-distant future. 
Nick Markakis (BAL) – A very solid hitter who has gone .300 for two straight years, but his homer total hasn't gotten much past 20 and his RBI plummeted from 112 to 87 in a weak Baltimore lineup last year. Markakis is still only 25 however and Baltimore has just committed to him with a lucrative long-term contract. This is a career still very much on the upswing.
Alex Rios (TOR) -Nice, solid numbers across the board and Rios value goes up a tick after stealing 32 bases last year. Rios has racked up 643 and 635 AB's over the past two years and has hit no lower than .291 in the last three seasons. Only negative is that 20 HR/80 RBI has been Rios' celing thus far. Torii Hunter (ANG) – Leaving Minnesota for Anaheim, Torii's numbers pretty much declined as expected, he still hits in the .280 range and steals close to 20 bases, but his power has declined a bit. I wouldn't be surprised though if he makes a return to at least flirting with the 100 RBI mark in '09. Bobby Abreu (ANG) – Doesn't this guy always fly under the radar, even as he went unclaimed for most of the winter in free agency?? Abreu has only knocked in 100 runs in seven of the last eight seasons, along with at least 20 HR and 20 steals during that span. Abreu has also scored at least 98 runs in each of the last ten seasons. I have to knock down Abreu a little bit this year, as he turns 35 (notice a developing theme here) and joins a very crowded outfield in Anaheim. Pat Burrell (TB) – If you are looking for 30 HR/100 RBI's, you most likely will not be disappointed with Pat, although he annually struggles in the batting average department. Throw out his .209 disaster in 2003 and his .281 year in .05, and Burrell's average has always finished in the .250's, and his high strikeout total suggests that things probably won't change much. One point of view though could be that getting away from the constant criticism faced in Philly could turn out to be good for Burrell. 
Johnny Damon (NYY) – You are paying for the obvious name value here, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with his recent baseline of .285/100/15/70/25 – a solid five-category line. But Damon is yet another player who just hit age 35 and now also has the added distraction of having his Stanford bank account (thank you Scott Boras) getting frozen. But this is also Damon's walk year and that could end up being a positive. Nelson Cruz (TX) – It has taken a while, but it looks like Nelson has finally arrived after years of drifting in the Milwaukee and Texas farm systems. Cruz hit 7 HR/26 RBI with a .330 average in September after hitting .342 with 37 HR/24 stolen bases in AAA. You have to like his home park though, and is being ranked by many as amongst the top 35 outfielders overall. I would make room in the Fanball Diamond Challenge for Cruz, where his salary goes for a mere $470,000. Hideki Matsui (NYY) – Can anyone guess which age Matsui will be come June 12??? Come on – take a wild guess??? After starting every game in his first three years with the Yankees (1,768 consecutive starts dating back to his Japanese Leauge days), Matsui has been felled by injuries for three years straight – and his power has declined as well, hitting only nine home runs in 95 games last year. Matsui still hit .294 last year, very much in line with his career MLB average of .295 Vernon Wells (TOR) – I have not really liked his career direction for a while now, although Wells did close out 2008 with a .318 average with 11 HR/36 RBI in the final two months. Wells has already had a recurrence of hamstring problems from last year and is questionable for Opening Day – assume the worst and don't expect much out of Wells before May 1. Xavier Nady (NYY) – Absolutely nothing wrong with his triple crown numbers (.305/25/97) playing between the Pirates and Yankees last year. Problem is someone is going to lose at-bats after the off-season acquisitions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher. I like Nady over Swisher however so hopefully Nady will see a near full-load of AB's. Carlos Guillen (DET) – Despite only playing two games in the outfield last year, Carlos is included in the rankings since the Tigers are planning on playing him in left field this year. If so, then Guillen would wind up being eligible in the outfield, first base, and third base. His modest home runs totals are dropping off but still that's a lot of flexibility. David Murphy (TX) – Is coming off a fairly decent, albeit injury-riddled first full season in the wbigs. Murphy has never produced spectacular numbers even as a prospect, but anyone playing in Texas deserves at least a look.
Delmon Young (MN) – Delmon has hit a solid .290'ish in his two full seasons in the bigs, but we haven't seen a whole lot in the home run or stolen base categories as of yet. Young is only age 23 however, so the upside definitely remains. Ty Wigginton (BAL) – After playing 30 games in the outfield with Houston last year, Wigginton is eligible here as well as third base last year. Will 20+ home run power, the journeyman seems like a reliable option at either position. Mark DeRosa (CLE) – Yes, he plays enough in the outfield to be eligible there as well as at second and third base, great flexibility for a player with nice power numbers in a hitters park. Carlos Gomez (MN) – You have to like the fact he got 577 AB's last year, and 33 stolen bases to go along with it – but there are no lead-pipe locks in the Twins outfield going into this season. J.D. Drew (BOS) – It's been the same story for a decade now, plenty of production when healthy – but it's a matter of 'when' and not 'if' as far as injuries are concerned. Drew did have a monster June last year with a .337/12/27 month. Adam Lind (TOR) – Had a decent first full season last year, but doesn't have much speed and doesn't project for too much more than 20 home runs at this point.
David DeJesus (KC) – Outside of scoring 100 runs two years ago, there isn't a whole lot a like about DeJesus, who doesn't steal much for a leadoff man. The arrival of Coco Crisp in KC could also cut into DeJesus's playing time. Dernard Span (MN) – A purely speculative ranking here, Span has as much speed as anyone coming up in baseball right now, scoring 70 times in 93 games last year. However the Twins outfield/DH situation is crowded, so Span may be in a fight in regards to playing time. Cocoa Crisp (KC) – Has stolen 15 bases in each of the last six seasons, going over 20 steals in four of those years. Crisp has never been able to lock down a starting job in the show however, and his power numbers took a deep after moving from Cleveland to Boston a few years back. Shin-Soo Choo (CLE) – Had a career breakthrough hitting over .300 with 66 RBI in just over a half-season's worth of work last year. Choo hit .333 with 35 RBI in 45 games at home and hit .317 .vs right-handed pitching. Jose Guillen (KC) – The career journeyman has flirted with 100 RBI the last two seasons, but I wouldn't expect much more than that playing for the Royals. Guillen does most of his damage against left-handed pitching. Jack Cust (OAK) – If you are just looking for home runs, Cust has 59 over the last two seasons. However you are looking at a one-trick pony with a .239 career average and strikeouts in a whopping 42 percent of his at-bats. What you see is what you get here. Ken Griffey Jr. (SEA) – Mr. Griff goes back to where it all started 20 years ago. A 30-HR man as recently as 2007, Griffey has been relatively healthy the last two years, but this is a career on it's last legs as Junior puts a ribbon on everything.
Adam Jones (BAL) – Did not stand out in any one area in his first full MLB season, and by looking at his mugshot it is little wonder why – try opening your eyes!!! Either that or when that picture was taken Adam had just spent the night out on the town with the other Adam Jones. In all seriousness, it is said that Jones added ten pounds in the off-season – and he is still only 23 and is obviously counted on as a big part of the Orioles future after being acquired in the Erik Bedard trade last year. Jason Kubel (MN) – Has had a couple of decent seasons, hitting around .270 and hitting 20 home runs last year. Is your typical blue-collar Twins player, and will be fighting for outfield playing time this year. Nick Swisher (NYY) – Has hit 102 home runs the last four years, but his low batting averages, including all of .219 last year, scares me off. Was projected as a starter for the Yankees until the team acquired Mark Teixeira later in the off-season. Travis Snider (TOR) – Went .275/23/91 while rapidly advancing through Toronto's farm system last year, then hit .300 with 13 RBI in 73 late-season AB's. There's plenty of competition in the Toronto outfield, but I could see him getting some more seasoning at AAA to open this season, but will get a call at some point at age 21. Michael Cuddyer (MN) – Just three years ago Cuddyer was hot property after driving in 105 runs, but last year he was an injury-riddled bust. If you believe in LASIX turning players careers around, Cuddyer underwent that procedure in the off-season. Luke Scott (BAL) – Had a career year with 23 HR's in 475 AB's, but has only hit in the .250's the last two seasons. A .215 average against left-handers in '08 means that Luke is most likely to see platoon duty. Juan Rivera (ANG) – His career hit a major detour with a broken leg a few years back, but Rivera was re-signed to the tune of three years-$12.75 million this off-season, so the Angels obviously still have some trust in him. Travis Buck (OAK) – Has shown some decent power potential, but like most Oakland prospects of late seems to have a hard time hitting his weight. Buck is probably worth exactly one of those in most auctions. Matt Joyce (TB) – Hit 12 home runs/33 RBI in just 242 AB's in his first taste of MLB experience in Detroit, and will be in the mix in Tampa, should platoon regularly against right-handers. Ben Francisco (CLE) – Got a chance to play as Cleveland fell out of contention, and more than held up until slumping in September. He is being looked at as fourth-outfielder material this spring. Gary Sheffield (DET) – This is my 22nd year in fantasy baseball, Gary Sheffield has been involved in every one of them – yup, starting with that September with the Brewers in which he and his gold caps first surfaced, that last link from the past to today. Even in just 114 games last year Sheffield was still good for 19 home runs and nine steals, and is just one home run away from 500 in his career. Still 'only' 40, Gary may be on his last legs however after only hitting .225 last year, his lowest average after hitting .194 while allegedly making errors on purpose to get out of Bud Selig's doghouse in 1991. Franklin Gutierrez (SEA) – Expected to start last year, Gutierrez wound up with only a mere eight home runs in 400 AB's, and now moves from a hitters park in Cleveland to a pitcher's park in Seattle. If you want to go with the post-hype theory go ahead, especially with Gutierrez at age 26. Marcus Thames (DET) – Puts up amazing power numbers, including 25 HR's in 316 AB's last year – but doesn't make enough contact to stay in the lineup consistently, consider him in the Jack Cust/Russell Branyan mold. Melky Cabrera (NYY) – Seems like he's been around a while, but is still just 24. He will battle Brett Gardner for playing time in the Yankees outfield. Felix Pie (BAL) – After a couple of false starts with the Cubs, Felix will now try his luck in the American League. Pie has stolen base potential but hasn't hit for much thus far. Matt LaPorta (CLE) – Did not do well after coming over in the CC Sabathia trade last summer, LaPorta played in the Olympics, then struggled in the Venezuelan winter league. He is obviously still part of Cleveland's plans but will most likely open this season in AAA. Mark Teahan (KC) – Seems like the typical Royals player, decent numbers, just not good enough to really help your fantasy team. A change of address could possibly do Teahan some good. Marlon Byrd (TX) – Gets around 400 AB's per year these days, and has hit in the .300 range the last two campaigns. Not the prospect he was projected as some years back but serviceable. Gary Matthews (ANG) – Hasn't done a whole lot since parlaying a huge walk year (with possibly some 'help') into a huge contract a couple years back. If Matthews could just come close to duplicating his .313 average from a few years back that would be a start. Andruw Jones (TX) – After a disastrous year with the Dodgers that saw the former 'Hurricane Andruw' fizzle to a tropical depression, Jones will get a look this spring in the Rangers camp. See if he can make it to the big club and hit above the Mendoze line before considering. Ryan Freel (BAL) – Even with his numerous injuries, Freel still managed to steal 30+ bases on a yearly basis in a variety of roles with Cincinnati. Now in Baltimore, Freel is projected as seeing most of his time v. left-handers, so even 300 AB's is a stretch. Wladimir Balentien (SEA) – Was high on the list of Mariners prospects, and got a look last year but only hit .202 in 243 AB's. Balentien is still said to have a ton of power potential.