KAC 2007 FANTASY BASEBALL - AL STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS
Johan Santana (MN) – In AL only leagues, Santana is so far checked out from the rest of the field that he warrents a #1 overall pick. In mixed leagues Santana is top-five at the very worst. Do you possibly say no to someone with a 78-31 career overall record who has now given 230 top-flight innings for three years running. Don't freak if Johan doesn't have a great start, he was 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA/1.36 WHIP in April last year. In the second half he was 10-1, 2.54/.99. ERA was about a run higher on the road last year but I wouldn't worry too much, the rest of his home/road splits were virtually the same.
Roy Halladay (TOR) - – Roy is a tenuous #2 on these ranking for a myriad of reasons. First, Roy's strikeout rate was way down, although he was still near his spectacular effectiveness of the first half of 2005. Also Roy got shut down with some elbow irritation towards the end of last year, and Roy is talking about cutting back on some of his off-speed selection to save his arm a bit, which could be a red flag. Roy is still very capable of spinning the complete game, although closer B.J. Ryan helps take some of that stress off.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS) – You may say this is a little high to rank someone who has never thrown a regular season MLB pitch, but the truth is if you want a chance of greatness from K-Dice, you will have to pull the trigger early because at least one owner in your league is going to want him at least as much if not more so. If early reports from camp are any indication, K-Dice appears very worthy of the hype, recently completing a 130-pitch session with all the intensity of a real game. In an unprecedented move, CDM slapped him with a 950 salary for the Diamond Challenge game, but that only makes him the 36th most expensive pitcher on the board so he should definitely be used there.
Scott Kazmir (TB) – Already owning the AL's top fantasy outfielder, the D-Rays may soon have one of the top starting pitchers as well. Although he did battle some shoulder soreness, Kazmir also averaged well over a strikeout per inning with a very fine 3.24 ERA. Keep in mind Kazmir is still a pup at age 22, but he has already been tabbed as the D-Rays Opening Day starter so his health is obviously checking out so far this spring.
John Lackey (ANG) – With apologies to some people in Detroit, it may be the Angels who wind up with the most imposing staff in 2007. Lackey's WHIP totals (finally under the 1.3 mark last year) may be a little high for some, but his strikeout totals are great and he's almost guaranteed to finish better than last year's 13-11. Lackey was especially stong in the first-half (2.88/1.02) last year before tailing off. If he gets off to a good start again you may want to work him into a trade package.
Rich Harden (OAK) – Why you can't go by those magazines which print back in January, in fact one had Harden listed #51 overall and even only #31 in MLB.com's preview. If all goes well Harden could be much better than that this year. True, Harden has a definite injury history - but also went 2.53/1.06 with nearly a strikeout per inning in 22 starts in 2005. Early reports out of spring training are very encouraging and is scheduled to make his first spring training stuff. If healthy, Harden could very well be a Cy Young contender and right now looks worth the roll of the dice. In CDM Harden is only the 51st ranked pitcher with an 890 salary so he should be a bargain there as well.
C.C. Sabathia (CLE) – I've not been on his bandwagon in past years due to his youth, his home park, and worry about a possible breakdown at some point. However there is absolutely nothing not to like now. ERA in the low 3's, check. WHIP under 1.20, check. Nearly a strikeout per inning, check. Doesn't allow a lot of home runs, check Poised for an even bigger year at age 26, check. The only negative is that he had some non-related arm issues (including one on Opening Night) and that he usually misses a few starts per year.
Jeremy Bonderman (DET) – Despite never having an ERA under 4 or a WHIP under 1.30, Bonderman is a prime breakout candidate this year. Bonderman is still only 24 but his numbers have slowly improved each year and went over 200 strikeouts last year. Add in the fact that Bonderman is in one of the best pitchers park on one of the AL's best teams, and you should have plenty going for you.
Justin Verlander (DET) – Emerged as one of the AL's top pitchers in the first-half (8-3, 3.31 ERA) before getting fatigued and struggling in the second half. Considering he can hit 100, I'm expecting a few more strikeouts from him as well. Have to rank him highly due to the massive upside.
A.J. Burnett (TOR) – If you are looking for top triple-digit velocity, go ahead and put A.J. near the top of your list, just be advised that he has only been able to make as many as 30 starts just once in his career.
Felix Hernandez (SEA) – Remains ranked very high on most cheat sheets despite not living up to admittedly lofty expectations last year. Even when he 'came around' in the second half, Felix still had an ERA over four and a WHIP at 1.26. You are guaranteed nearly a strikeout per inning, but you are probably going to have to endure some occasionaly ugly 5 IP, 6 H, 4 BB like-lines. You have a chance at greatness this year, but remember the man is still only 21.
Curt Schilling (BOS) – I'm not nuts about his prospects this year, mainly because the memory of him doing me in last year is too deep in my mind. Most alarming was the number of home run balls allowed jumping from 12 to 28. Schilling still had 183 K's in 204 innings and pitching in Boston should guarantee 15 wins minimum if he stays healthy.
Dan Haren (OAK) – Not one of my personal favorites, for he flipped immediately after I used on of my last purchases on him in CDM. That night he started in Toronto and gave up nine earned runs, but picked up the win because Ted Lilly managed to be even worse. That started a horrible run that saw Haren's ERA rise from 3.45 fo 4.12 by the end of the year. Still his strikeout and WHIP totals are acceptable, and Haren will now be counted on as the new ace of the Oakland staff.
Mike Mussina (NYY) – Had a great comeback year winning 15 games and an excellent 1.11 WHIP. You should still get a nice solid total of wins, just be warned Mussina has a penchant of giving up nine or ten runs in a start without notice.
Jon Papelbon (BOS) – The true X-factor of the AL field, Jon gets listed as a starter since he is scheduled to do so this season. Everyone knows what Jon did in five months as an ace closer last year. Maybe he won't work deep into games, but Jon could end up winning a lot of a games and be a top starter this year, a return to the closers role cannot be ruled out neither. If nothing else, Jon should be a nice extra starter to plug into a RP position.
Chien-Ming Wang (NYY) – In old school 4 X 4 leagues Wang holds more value, as last year the sinker-baller won 19 games with a fine 3.63 ERA. With anything better than 76 strikeouts in 218 innings, Wang would be more of a fantasy force. Surprisingly, Wang does hit 95 on the gun but he strictly gets his batters to ground out.
Erik Bedard (BAL) – Yet another member of the Canadian All-Star team, his 3.76 ERA/1.35 WHIP is actually a little better when you realize that he had a lousy month of May after missing a few starts due to injury, and still managed to win 15 games on a lousy team. Bedard does well in the strikeout category and has been helped by the arrival of pitching guru Leo Mazzone.
Boof Bosner (MN) – One has to feel for the Minnesota Twins losing the services of Francisco Liriano, who would have challenged Johan Santana for the #1 spot had he not blown out his elbow. So much for the dream rotation, or is it??? Along came Boof last year went 4-1/2.63/1.02 in September, impressing enough to earn a Game 2 playoff start. Boof also had 84 strikeouts in 100 IP and definitely passes the eyeball test at 6'4" 260. Boof should be a real find in the CDM game where he goes off at 530.
Josh Beckett (BOS) – After letting me down getting lit up on a constant basis last year, I don't think you will see Beckett on any of my teams this year, and I especially not going to put Beckett in my lineup when going against the Yankees, where he had a 9.45 ERA/2.00 WHIP. That said, Beckett is very capable of bouncing back and even approaching 20 wins. On the bright side he did manage to get through the season without suffering one of his trademark blisters. You may want to see how Beckett does in the spring games first.
Jon Garland (CWS) – Kind of interesting that we get this deep until finally getting to a White Sox starter, especially one who has won 36 games in the last two seasons. The problem is Garland is not a strikeout pitcher and his ERA/WHIP sore to mediocre levels last season. Garland gives up a lot of homers, but he will at the very least rack up innings and wins for you.
Andy Pettitte (NYY) – He may be a Texan, but Pettitte just seemed out of place outside of Yankee pinstripes. The National Leauge was very good for Pettitte in 2005 with a 2.39 ERA, but both the ERA and WHIP soared last season, although he still won 14 games. Pettitte also gets more strikeouts than you might think. Should get a nice total of wins if nothing else.
Kelvim Escobar (ANG) – Escobar stayed relatively healthy for one of the few times in his career and had a decent 3.61 ERA, but still pitched into plenty of bad luck finishing with a 11-14 record. Escobar also is battling a chronic knee problem which affected the end of last year as well as so far this spring. Don't put your expectations too high.
Ervin Santana (ANG) – Ervin keeps showing signs of being as good as the other Santana, at least when he's pitching at home. In his career Ervin is 19-5 with a 3.09 ERA at home, but 9-11, 6.46 on the road. At the very least you could platoon the guy, but keep in mind he is still only 24 with a nice offense behind him, he should continue to mature.
Nate Robertson (DET) – Robertson is what he is, a solid #3 starter in a strong rotation. Nate gets a decent (but not great) ERA along with decent (but not great) WHIP. The strikeouts are also OK but you would had expected better than 13-13 considering the success of the team as a whole last year.
Jered Weaver (ANG) – Based on a very impressive half-season last year, the former #1 overall pick would definitely merit a top-ten ranking if healthy. But manager Mike Scioscia stretched him out for 110+ pitches in a late-season start saying at the time there was nothing left to save Jered for. Except now Jered has a sore arm and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. His progress will be very much worth monitoring.
Kei Igawa (NYY) – Japanese League star signed with New York for four years/$20 million after the Yankees paid a $26 millon posting fee. Igawa was a league MVP in 2004 and approached 200 strikeouts every year. Igawa will be more of a back-end rotation guy as opposed to Daisuke Matsuzaka, but Kei should at least do well in the wins and strikeout departments.
Javier Vazquez (CWS) – For years I've been waiting for this guy to come around, but it never quite comes to fruition. Vazquez has great stuff and puts up a lot of strikeouts on a good team, but is maddeningly inconsistent. Even though his ERA is in the upper 4's he won't kill you with a WHIP in the upper 1.2's
Kenny Rogers (DET) – Kind of low to rank someone who has won 49 games over the past three seasons and also puts up a more than respectable ERA. But the Roaster is 42 and his biggest trick may have been taken away in Game 2 of the World Series. Of course Kenny did shut down the Cards after getting his hand cleaned up and he'd probably make a great pitching coach someday. But I'd probably let someone else take the cheater on draft day.
Kevin Millwood (TX) – The raging debate nine years ago is whether Kerry Wood or Millwood was headed for a better career. It looks like Millwood has won that hand, if only by default. On the bright side Millwood did win 16 games, but his ERA skyrocketed from 2.86 to 4.52 although his WHIP did remain respectable. He's #1 on the Texas staff, but #1 in a bandbox.
Jose Contreras (CWS) – Contreras' M-O over his U.S. career is to be spectacular one moment and absolutely awful the next. Contreras has been good for 13-15 wins with some good strikeout totals, but can implode at any time.
Adam Loewen (BAL) – A potential member of the All-Canadian team, Loewen already has a nice strikeout ratio. To be honest though, Loewen's ERA/WHIP are a bit rough at this point. But Loewen is only 22 and remains a highly touted prospect, it might be a good idea to draft him late before someone grabs him off the free-agent wire after he pitches an early gem.
Jake Westbrook (CLE) – If you value wins, Westbrook's you man, winning 44 games in the last three years. Jake is a non-factor in K's, but will post a decent ERA/WHIP, nice solid guy to round off your staff.
Joe Blanton (OAK) – Posted some very good ERA/WHIP numbers in 2005, then won 16 games last year - albeit with an elevated ERA/WHIP. Not much of a K factor, but Blanton seems like a very nice #3 pitcher at this point in his career.
Vicente Padilla (TX) – Has kind of cooled off from the potential he showed with the Phillies (2002 All-Star) a few years back. His home park also hurts his numbers but still won 15 games last year and will get you decent K's.
Matt Garza (MN) – Here's another reason not to feel sorry for the Twins about the Francisco Liriano injury. Garza was the Minor League pitcher of 2006, going 14-4 with a 1.99 ERA and well over a strikeout per inning. Garza got cuffed around in a late-season trial but the sky is the limit with experience. Garza also goes for 400 in CDM.
Bartolo Colon (ANG) – And this might even be too early to take the 2005 Cy Young winner who won 39 games between 2004-05. Bart had an injury plaged year before being diagnosed with a partially torn rotator cuff. Current estimates have Bart being out of action until late May at the earliest. Keep him in mind only if you have a slot on the bench to stash him for a while
James Shields (TB) – Got a good half-years worth of experience in 2006, and made a decent account of himself, recording 104 strikeouts in 125 innings pitched. As you might expect, his ERA/WHIP can use improvement and also has the disadvantage of being in the rugged AL East. That said, Shields could develop into a nice #2 for the D-Rays.
Daniel Cabrera (BAL) – I was all over this guy after watching some of his stuff during a stint in the World Baseball Classic. That was good Cabrera, unfortunately he cannot find home plate half the time and even served a stint in the minors to get straightened out last year. Passes the eyeball test at 6'7", 250. See what strides he makes in the spring, he does have a ton of upside.
Esteban Loaiza (OAK) – Had a mostly disastrous season as a free agent pick-up, much of it contributed to a bad back. His strikeout rate in particular was way down, along with his other numbers. He still has some nice hot stretches, so consider him late but only then
Brandon McCarthy (TX) – A highly touted prospect for years in the White Sox organization, Brandon now gets an opportunity in Texas where his ERA/WHIP could take a beating. McCarthy should have a decent strikeout rate.
Gil Meche (SEA) – So we finally get down to the Royals pitching staff, and the pitcher the organization has banked 5 years/$55 million on. Meche has put up good strikeout totals and he actually got his ERA below five last year. That said, his stats are going to take a beating making approximately half his starts against the White Sox, Twins, Tigers, and Indians. Hopefully Gil won't end up regretting signing this deal too much.
Philip Hughes (NYY) – Even though he will probably begin the year in the minors, Hughes definitely should merit your attention.The rare Yankee prospect that the organization has no plans to ever deal for veteran help, and for good reason - Hughes is one of the premiere prospects in all of baseball. Minor Leauge opposition hit only .179 off of Hughes in 2006. Since the Yankees will likely make the playoffs with or without Hughes, the organization can afford to be patient, he will be needed much more from August through October than in April or May.
Jerrod Washburn (SEA) – Absolutely nothing elite, just some decent numbers and a nice player to fill out your squad with, just don't get too dis-illusioned by that 3.20 ERA in 2005.
Jeremy Sowers (CLE) – Came up to the show in '06 and did very well in 14 starts, going 7-4 with a 3.57/1.19. Be aware though that Sowers is strictly a control pitcher who won't be counted on for strikeouts.
Jeff Weaver (SEA) – Parlayed a strong late-season/post-season run with the Cardinals into a 1 year/$8.3 million contract in Seattle. He steps into a great pitchers park, but his AL numbers in particular the last few years have been absolutely scary, and not in a good way.
Cha-Seung Baek (SEA) – Had an outstanding year in the minors last year and also made a good account of himself in the Show. Not a power pitcher, but stands a good chance as a #3 or #4 starter in a great pitchers park.
Jon Lester (BOS) – You are probably aware of his battle with cancer which ended his rookie season, but as of now it sounds like everything has turned out fine. As you might expect, Lester is being brought along slowly and might also spend some time in extended spring training. Although Lester got racked around in 2006, he did have some decent strikeout totals. Good name to think about on the waiver wiver around mid-season.
Tim Wakefield (BOS) – Yes the old knuckleballer is still kicking, although he was on the shelf for part of '06. Keep in mind that even as recent as 2005, Wakefield won 16 games with three complete games a 4.15 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and even 150 punchouts. He usually comes in handy at some point.
Hayden Penn (TX) – Has fared well in the minors but the 22-year old got cuffed around in the show last year. A blown appendix during the season did not help matters. Still a good prospect to track
Zach Greinke (KC) – Missed virtually all of last season after taking a leave of absence to take care of some personal issues, perhaps trying to deal with being with such a sorry organization. Ended up shaking off the rust in AA and should be back in the show this year. Still considered a good long-term prospect.
