'THE EDGE' (COMING SOON!!) |
CC Sabathia (NYY) – As dominating as Sabathia was in his three months as a Milwaukee Brewers, his owners also didn't forget the disastrous start he had last April when he was still with Cleveland. Still when it was all over CC had established career highs in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts while logging 250+ innings. CC also pitched a no-hitter in 2008, no matter what a dim-whitted official scorer in Pittsburgh might think. I would have liked Sabathia to have remained in the National League just so he could have taken advantage of his hitting prowess, but owners in AL only leagues will target CC as it is a long gap between him and the second best starter. 
Roy Halladay (TOR) – The knock on Halladay had been a relative lack of strikeouts. Well after just barely striking out 130 in 2006 and '07, Roy upped that total to 206 last year along with a 2.78 ERA/1.05 WHIP. Roy's final record of 20-11 becomes much more impressive on a team that sees the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays for a third of their schedule. With 246 innings logged last year, Roy is the true definition of a workhorse. 
Josh Beckett (BOS) – Two of his three seasons in Boston have been somewhat dissapointing, but don't dare drop him from the top tier of AL starters. Beckett still averaged nearly a strikeout per inning last year, and pitching for the Red Sox will always make Josh a threat to win 20. One negative is Beckett tends to miss a few starts for year, so don't expect more than 200 IP. 
John Lackey (ANG) – If you were in a close race in September of '08, and you had Lackey for that fateful final start where he gave up ten earned runs, you have to be pretty hacked off. Oh the wonders of that dreaded post-season tuneup start, basically a glorified Spring Training start that just happened to count for real in his final season stats, and the stats of fantasy owners. Throw that out and you have a starter with an ERA in the low 3's on a team that ran away and hid in the weak AL West. Just think about protecting your stats if Lackey takes the bump again in the final week with his team having clinched everything. Ervin Santana (ANG) – This just might be the best Santana pitching in big league ball in 2008. Everyone kept waiting for Ervin to get rid of the psychological block of pitching on the road – well that happened in 2008, with Ervin actually faring better on the road (11-2/3.02) than at rat-infested Angel Stadium (5-5/4.03). It seems like Ervin has been around for a while, but this is actually his age 26 year. 
Cliff Lee (CLE) – OK, maybe Cliff will never again come close to duplicating last year's 22-3 masterpiece on basically a .500 team. Just maybe this was Cliff's Steve Stone-like throw everything into one campaign sort of a deal. That said, can you let him slip too far in a draft??? True, Cliff is a good, but not great strikeout pitcher, but the key to his 2008 Cy Young winning year was exceptional control. Even if Cliff winds up '09 in the 3.50/1.20 range, that won't be a horrible dropoff. 
Francisco Liriano (MN) – Three years ago, Liriano was absolutely unstoppable. After finally regaining his from after Tommy John surgery and a stint in the minors last year, Liriano was just merely very good down the stretch, with a 2.74 ERA in his last 11 starts. Most MLB teams and fantasy owners will gladly take that. The finally numbers also had Liriano nearly striking out one man per inning. Liriano will also be a fine value in Fanball Diamond Challenge with a salary of $830,000. 
James Shields (TB) – Stat I heard during the Rays AL Championship Series v. the Red Sox last year, Shields is virtually un-hittable in his first 15 pitches of a games, gets cuffed around from pitches 16-30, then is dominant again from pitches 31 through 45. I don't know of any leagues however that allows owners to remove and reinsert pitchers by the pitch though. Shields confirmed himself as a staff ace last season. His ERA will take a hit as he will no doubt be saved for games v. New York or Boston, but you can still count on 15-18 wins. 
Felix Hernandez (SEA) – It seems like Felix has been with the Mariners for ten years, but he is still only age 22. He lowered his ERA last year to 3.45, but his WHIP was still north of 1.30 and issued 80 free passes in 200 innings on a lousy Seattle team. Every year carries the potential of Felix putting it all together, but you still fear those 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 6 BB type of days. Daisuke Matuszaka (BOS) – Ranked tenth amongst the American Leaguer's for second straight year. Dice BB's control will drive you batty at times, but despite issuing 94 free passes, Matsuzaka still wound up with a 2.90 ERA/1.32 WHIP and 18 wins. Daisuke seems able to stay healthy however, and will at at the very least be good for plenty of wins with the Red Sox. Joba Chamberlain (NYY) – This is a conservative ranking, many pubs have Joba in the top-ten overall amongst MLB pitchers. As absolutely intriguing as the upside may be, Joba will unfortunately go too early in most drafts. But with 118 K's in 100 IP pitched last year, you can see the monster potential. Joba was used a lot in relief last year, giving the flexibility of being used as a SP or RP in most formats. He will have a nice salary in Diamond Challenge at $860,000, which should be high enough that at least he won't be on every single roster every week. Be prepared to not expect a workload higher than in the 160-180 IP range. A.J. Burnett (NYY) – 231 strikeouts and 18 wins for the fourth place Blue Jays last year should have your attention, but Burnett also comes with an inflated ERA and a history of not being able to stay healthy. The 221 IP last year represented by far the highest season total for the 32-year old. Burnett should get a lot of wins if he can avoid the DL, Yankee fans are just hoping he doesn't turn into Carl Pavano the sequel. Jon Lester (BOS) – Made his final approach towards being an elite starter last year, recording a 16-6 record with a 3.21 ERA and a memorable May no-hitter v. Kansas City. Target Jon even higher if you like lefties, but also consider that he logged 237 innings including post-season last year. David Price (TB) – Sure, he has all of 14 regular season innings logged in his career, but the sky is the limit for Price. The 2007 #1 overall draft pick will be targeted very highly in all formats. Diamond Challenge even made sure that Price will not come too cheaply, giving him a salary of $730,000. Should also be eligible at RP in most formats. 
Zack Greinke (KC) – He had a couple of detours along the way, but Greinke arrived as a top-flight starter in 2008, striking out 183 in just over 200 IP and posting a 3.47 ERA and a 13-10 record. The only negative left is pitching for a perennial doormat, but the Royals are definitely capable of making noise in a weak AL Central this year, and Zack could very well be the leader of that revival. Matt Garza (TB) – His ALCS Game 7 heroics from last year will probably bump his price up a tad this time around, Garza's ERA/WHIP before arriving in Tampa last year was pretty hefty, but Garza only turns 25 this year. He may wind up being Tampa's #4 starter, but a darn good #4 starter. Jared Weaver (ANG) – This is a great pitcher to target for this year. Weaver has been a relative disappointment since arriving with a blast in the second half of 2006. Although his ERA has been up the last two years, he is a source for strikeouts and has been double-digits in wins the last three years on a playoff-caliber team. If everything camed together for Weaver this year and he contended for the Cy Young award, it would come as no surprise to this observer. Scott Kazmir (TB) – You will probably see him higher on other draft boards, but I'm not buying the Kool-Aid here. Kazmir looked dominant for the first-quarter of 2008, but then struggled racking up high pitch counts and not being able to work late into games. That said, Kazmir still has a ton of talent and potential – and qualifies as a potential post-sleeper gem. You might want to see how he looks in his spring starts before acting.
John Danks (CWS) – Here's one I actually guessed right on in my money draft last year, as Danks blossomed with a 3.32 ERA and 159 strikeouts. The wins (12-9) were not quite there and you worry about him pitching in that South Side bandbox, where his ERA was 3.66 as opposed to 2.92 on the road. Mark Buehrle (CWS) – Is considered a staff ace and is paid as one – but Buehrle's stats suffer partially in result of being the White Sox's bell cow, to the extent last year that he was actually dropped in some leagues. Buehrle still wound up being good for 15 wins, but has allowed 240 and 247 hits in recent years. Buehrle will take his turn every fifth day and work deep into games, but be aware that he may absorb some beating along the way, this is one pitcher where you may want to pick your sports.
Justin Verlander (DET) – He has actually taken a step back since pitching that dominant June 2007 no-hitter. And things even got worse with an ERA above six in the second half of last year. Verlander still possesses a lot of talent, but there seems to be a lot of effort and I wouldn't be surprised if an injury is just around the corner. Erik Bedard (SEA) – A huge fall for my #1 ranked AL starter heading into 2008, didn't I say he would get even better in Seattle?? My bad. Bedard got off to a shaky start, then got hurt, and was not a big fan favorite in the Seattle clubhouse. If Don Cherry did MLB commentary, I'm sure he would of wasted no time questioning his mental toughness. All of that said, remember how filthy Bedard was pitching for Baltimore in 2007. If Bedard can rebound this year, the Mariners would have a valuable commodity come trade deadline time. Chien-Ming Wang (NYY) – More valuable in old school 4X4 leagues since Wang is not a strikeout specialist. A 19-game winner in both 2006 and 2007, Wang was in the middle of another strong season (8-2) in 2008 before suffering a season-ending foot injury in a freak baserunning accident. Due to other splashes made to the pitching staff by the Yankees in free agency as well as the injury and the lack of strikeouts, Wang has fallen off the radar in some circles. Kevin Slowey (MN) – You hear this cat's name, and you envision some Jamey Wright type with 85 MPH pitches being clobbered all over the place. Indeed, Slowey doesn't have the most blazing fastball out there, but he is actually a pretty solid pitcher, and his 1.15 WHIP from last year was more than acceptable. At the very worst, Slowey will not kill you out there. Scott Baker (MN) – Has spent the last several years being touted as one of the Twins' better prospect, and some of that potential has come to fruition, going 11-4 with a very fine 3.45 ERA/1.18 WHIP last year. He could have a higher ERA this coming year but is still solid.. Brandon Morrow (SEA) – Picked ahead of Tim Lincecum in the Amateur Draft a couple years back, Morrow found a breakthrough as the Mariners closer late last year. However Morrow may hold more value starting this year, considering Seattle doesn't figure to win a lot of games. Morrow is also being held back with a sore arm in camp. Another factoid, Morrow is a type I diabetic. One encouraging sign is that Morrow's control improved significantly last year. With a ton of talent (to)Morrow may come in Seattle this year. Joe Saunders (ANG) – Much like Chien-Ming Wang, Saunders totals are absolutely great if you forget about strikeouts. Saunders won 17 games last year with a 3.41/1.21. Most pundits don't think Saunders can duplicate that season, but I still wouldn't let him slip too far, especially pitching in Anaheim. Armando Gallaraga (DET) – The new cat on the block, kind of fitting pitching for the Tigers. Got pressed into service last year and produced a great 13-7 record with a 3.73/1.19 and a decent strikeout ratio. Gallaraga could take his lumps as the AL gets a better look at him this year, he will no longer be sneaking up on anyone. Fausto Carmona (CLE) – After a spectacular 2007 season which saw 19 wins and a 3.06 ERA, Carmona imploded in an injury-riddled '08 campaign where he lost command of finding home plate. Fausto still has to be remembered on draft day, but there is plenty of risk at this point. 
Jeremy Guthrie (BAL) – There are Opening Day starting pitchers, then there are pitchers who start on Opening Day. Guthrie falls into that second category, but he isn't bad to own. He takes his turn in the rotation, and has produced solid ERA's of 3.70 and 3.63 the past two seasons. He won't win many games with the Orioles, but he's one of the safer choices to fill out your rotation, and one of those targets I just missed out on (like taken two picks before me) draft day. Gil Meche (KC) – The Royals are getting their money's worth out of this free agent signing from a couple years back, as Meche has hit his prime, striking out 183 in 210 innings last year while winning 14 games. He will give up his share of walks and hits. Gavin Floyd (CWS) – Was snapped up from many a waiver wire after flirting with a no-hitter on two occasions early in the '08 season. Floyd quickly showed those performances not to be a fluke, as he ended up with 17 wins on the season. Brad Penny (BOS) – Even when he was healthy in 2007 and twirled his way to a 16-4 record and a 3.03 ERA, the league was hitting .260 off him. Last year's numbers turned out to be a complete disaster with Penny poor-mouthing Dodgers management on his way out of town. Penny is still complaining of arm fatigue early in Red Sox camp, but is close to getting the green light. Despite the high maintenance, Penny is in a situation where he could rack up a lot of wins. 
Justin Duchscherer (OAK) – His 2008 numbers were spectacular (2.54/1.00, 141 IP) but Duchscherer had hip surgery before the end of last year and is expected to open this year on the DL with elbow trouble. At age 31 last year's numbers were probably a career year to begin with. Andy Sonnenstine (TB) – You can do much worse for a fifth starter in fantasy or real life, as Sonnenstine pulled his end of the bargain last year racking up 13 wins. His ERA is coming down and his WHIP ended '08 below the 1.30 mark. John Smoltz (BOS) – Be aware that Smoltz is coming off major elbow surgery and is not expected back until June. But Smoltz is one of the game's all-time great competitors and is said to be rehabbing vigorously in camp. Even at age 42, expect Smoltz in some big-time pressure situations once July, August, and September roll around. Andy Pettitte (NYY) – If you want 15 wins, Pettitte could be a pretty good bet considering that's been around his average over the past four years. But Pettitte's ERA/WHIP has been on the rise over the past couple of season's, this veteran's better days may now be behind him although he still delivers a healthy amount of strikeouts. Jesse Litsch (TOR) – ERA/WHIP wise, Litsch has had two solid seasons to open his career, including a fine 3.58 ERA last year. Litsch is not a strikeout pitcher, which limits his potential upside some. Justin Masterson (BOS) – Both his regular and post-season numbers were outstanding, racking up 71 K's in 79 regular season innings in a variety of roles. Starts may be hard to come by and the team appears to be looking at him more as a reliever, but not a bad lottery ticket to take a late round flyer on. Sean Gallagher (OAK) – One of the key pieces that came over in the Rich Harden trade last July, Gallagher racked up 103 strikeouts in 115 IP for the Cubs and A's combined – may have the best potential of anyone on the A's staff. Brett Anderson (OAK) – With David Price now at home at the MLB level, Anderson becomes perhaps the top pitching prospect in pro baseball. Anderson's whirlwind 2008 season started in A Ball, but made his way to AAA before the season was through and also represented the USA at the Summer Olympics. Anderson already has a wide array of pitches that can be thrown for strikes. Will be worth the wait even if he opens the season in AAA. Phil Hughes (NYY) – Can you say post-hype??? Hughes has been nothing short of a disaster in his first two big-league trials, but is still considered one of the game's best prospects. It's going to take a lot however for Hughes to crack the Yankee rotation. Clay Buchholz (BOS) – After a fantastic late-season run late in the 2007 season, Buchholz simply bombed last year. Clay is going to have to take advantage of what spot-starting opportunities may come during the course of the season – while the team can afford to remain patient. Dana Eveland (OAK) – He couldn't get anyone out to save his life in a few stints with the Brewers, but was given 29 starts in Oakland last year a produced a decent 9-9 record. I'm not expecting too much futher improvement beyond that. Nick Blackburn (MN) – Produced a nice 11-11 slate in his first year as a starter. Consider him a little more in 4X4 leagues as he has an awful strikeout rate. Tim Wakefield (BOS) - The old knuckleballer still does his thing, although he only won 10 games last year as opposed to 17 the year before, although the ERA was still decent at just a shade over four. He has his job as the Red Sox #4 pitcher all locked up.
Vicente Padilla (TX) – That I've gone this far without listing a Rangers pitcher should be all you need to know about their pitching staff. Padilla did win 14 games last year, but also with a 4.74/1.46, and those were amongst the best numbers on the Texas staff. . Anthony Reyes (CLE) – Was not a big favorite in St. Louis, but put up decent numbers in a relief role before being shut down for the year. Reyes has emerged as one of the favorites to lock down a starting spot. Jeremy Bonderman (DET) – At age 26, he's still considered part of Detroit's future, but Bonderman has struggled the last couple years, then was diagnosed with a blood clot in his pitching arm, which ended his '08 season. Bonderman is still dealing with shoulder issues in spring camp this year. Carl Pavano (CLE) – Looking for a lottery ticket??? There's been a Carl Pavano sighting, actually pitching in Grapefruit Circuit action. Of course Pavano parlayed a career year in 2004 into a $39 million contract with the Yankees, in which he only pitched 145 innings over four seasons. Pavano has a 1 year/$1.5 million contract with the Tribe, which could be worth as much as $6.8 million if various incentives are meet David Purcey (TOR) – Injuries have decimated the Toronto rotation, Shaun Marcum is out for the 2009 season and Dustin McGowan is also rehabbing from surgery. Enter Purcey, who hasn't done much yet at the big league levels but has some great strikeout potential. Aaron Laffey (CLE) – Waiver wire wonder back in May, recording a sparkling 0.79 ERA in 34 IP. Laffey will again be in the mix for a rotation spot, but unfortunately will have one of the lower strikeout ratios amongst starters. Glen Perkins (MN) – Had a nice 12-4 record last year, but his other peripherals were not much to write home about and he doesn't rack up a lot of punchouts. So you've been warned in case Perkins comes out as flat as a pancake. Ian Kennedy (NYY) – Bombed even worse than teammate Philip Hughes trying to crack the Yankees rotation last year. Now Ian finds himself entrenched in a numbers game. It may take a trade out of the Bronx before Kennedy finds a permanent spot in the bigs. Ryan Rowland-Smith (SEA) - Passed up a chance to play for Australia in the World Baseball Classic in a bid to win a start in the Mariners rotation, where he did well late last year. The most likely scenario has RRS being a swingman for the time being. Chris Tillman (BAL) – A major piece of the 2007 Erik Bedard trade, Tillman had a 11-4 record with a 3.18 ERA in AA ball last year, averaging over ten strikeouts per nine innings. You should see Tillman arrive with the big club at some point this season Jose Contreras (CWS) – Coming off an Achilles tendon injury, Contreras was thought to be out until mid-season. But his recovery so far has been termed to be so remarkable in camp that he might make the Opening Day roster. I'll believe it when I see it. Scott Lewis (CLE) – Has shown excellent control in the minors and went 4-0 in a late-season call-up with the Tribe. Lewis is looking good again this spring but may have a tough time cracking the rotation. Bartolo Colon (CWS) – Colon has not even been able to manage as much as 100 IP in any of the last three years. Colon did put up decent numbers in some limited duty in Boston last year. Daniel Bard (BOS) – I go prospect on you to close things out, Bard was recently clocked at a cool 100 MPH in an exhibition game against Puerto Rico's WBC team. Bard is slated to open the season at Pawtucket and coult see a call-up by mid-season.