Albert Pujols (STL) – The first base position is absolutely loaded, and in all but the largest of leagues you should find someone you are comfortable enough with at the position. That said, Albert deserves serious consideration as the #1 overall pick, and will probably be #1 overall in the majority of mocks. Pujols was probably the happiest guy in history to land on the DL for three weeks back in June, for it stopped the talk of Pujols being on pace to break Bonds record, and speculation on whether Albert could possibly be on something himself. I don’t need to analyze the stats here, Pujols is a Triple Crown threat with his consistent .330 average and 50+ bomb potential. Only worry here besides injury is Pujols could be walked a bunch.
Ryan Howard (PHI) – Looked to be heading towards the mythical ‘all-natural’ single-season home run record, before opposing pitching wised up and walked him more later in the season. Nonetheless, Ryan was very worthy of the NL MVP award with 58 HR and 149 RBI. Howard may be in a plus-hitters park, but his amazing stats were virtually the same on the road as at home. I am worried that Howard could take a small drop in the BA department this year. Ryan also recently begged off the off-season banquet circuit as he felt it was detracting from his preparation for the 2007 season.
David Ortiz (BOS) – Rather than do a designated hitter section with about four worthy names on it, I am including first basemen who are listed as such in CDM’s games. Ortiz is one of those who fall in that category, and I give Ortiz a very small demerit over the ticker problem that cost him a week late last year – but ultimately checked out fine. If there were another incident with his heart it could be his career. That said, I say there is about a five percent chance of that happening, if he makes it through spring then that should be an all-go. Had it not been for the missed week Ortiz would had made a run for 60 home runs last year. As it is 139, 148, and 137 RBI over the last three years with a near .300 average is not bad.
Travis Hafner (CLE) – Like Ortiz, eligible only at DH. I’m going to say the following as a positive, Hafner has a very McGwire-esque physique. Again, that is not a rip. Hafner hits a steady .300+ and was on pace for 50 home runs before missing the last month with a busted hand. His slugging percentage also improved from .595 to .659. Only negative is you might want to bench Hafner during inter-league play, he only put on the first basemen’s mitt four times last year.
Lance Berkman (HOU) – Put up some of the quietest 45 home runs and 136 RBI you’ll ever see last season and will now benefit from the protection of Carlos Lee. You might even want to move up Lance a slot or two if you like the outfield as well as first base eligibility.
Justin Morneau (MN) – Except for a few less home runs, Morneau’s stat-line read much like Hafner’s in a true breakout campaign. At age 25, I feel Morneau is still not close to his peak and could surpass the 40 home run mark this year. Also coming off a year in which he hit .321.
Mark Teixeira (TX) – Never mind how low Teixeira is listed in these rankings, there is a good chance that you will be getting first-round stats with what will probably be a late second/early third round pick this time around. Teixeira’s awful first half (9 HR/45 RBI) will probably resonate with many who got burned last year. Teixeira rebounded with 24 HR/61 RBI after the break in 2006.
Paul Konerko (CWS) – Again, this is not meant to be a slam or even a criticism, Konerko is turning out to be the Rafael Palmeiro of this generation. What I mean by that is that Paul is money for 35-40 HR, over 100 RBI and even hit .313 last year to boot. It’s just that he flies under the radar and is overshadowed even on his own team.
Derrick Lee (CHC) – Not bad to have an MVP from a couple years ago (slugging pct. .662) ranked this low. A revamped Cubs lineup will off Derrick plenty of RBI opportunities. Derrick usually also has the most stolen bases of anyone at the position.
Jim Thome (CWS) – For much of last season Thome went bomb for bomb with the likes of Travis Hafner and Justin Morneau in the same division. Thome gets docked some for his injury history, his DH-only eligibility, and the fact that he is now 36 and at the very least will take a back seat in the BA department to Hafner and Morneau.
Carlos Delgado (NYM) – This is not a bad way to start off the second-ten, a player with 40 HR/120 RBI potential. Only problem is the BA will usually run in the .270 range and that there isn’t much upside at age 34.
Frank Thomas (TOR) – Then you have this guy, who came back completely from the dead last year, hitting 39 HR/114 RBI in just 137 games. Now in a great offensive lineup in Toronto, the Big Hurt should continue to relive some of his past glory, and would love a shot at the White Sox in the playoffs.
Richie Sexson (SEA) – The first base field now starts to finally taper off a bit, but Sexson is still good for 35 HR/100+ RBI on an annual basis. You’re going to have to make sure you have good average hitters elsewhere, as you will have to live with Sexson’s .260 avg and occasional 0-20 skids.
Prince Fielder (MIL) – You have to throw Prince into the mix at this point at the latest just for the potential upside. You are not seeing the big-time power quite yet, but should get more consistent as a hitter. 35 HR and a .290 batting average are realistic goals in his second full season.
Jason Giambi (NYY) – Comparable to Sexson, still good for 30 something bombs and 100+ RBI, but not the greatest in the BA department. And of course Jason gets hurt a lot and hears it a lot more in the Bronx when he goes 0-20 than Sexson would in Seattle.
Todd Helton (COL) – A stock that everyone is down on last year. You may remember Todd being hospitalized and DL’d with something originally thought to be potentially serious. Helton did recover, but his stats were way down, especially in the BA department. On the trading block all off-season, this is a great buy low candidate, especially if you’re one of those who feel that Coors Field dumped the humidor last September. If not Boston had also shown interest, and he probably wouldn’t fit in bad there neither.
Nick Swisher (OAK) – You get the 35 HR and 100 RBI, and anything over a .250 batting average would be a bonus. At age 26 this would be the year Swisher needs to prove he’s more than a poor man’s Adam Dunn. Also has outfield eligibility.
Lyle Overbay (TOR) – In real life, a fantastic player who racks up doubles and goes all out like no-one’s business. The scouting report that had him ending up very similar to Mark Grace coming up are proving to be very accurate. And from a fantasy perspective that is exactly where Overbay is a problem. 20 HR/90 RBI and a .300 average may be nice, but you usually don’t get a lot out of those 50 doubles and Overbay also doesn’t cross home plate a whole lot. Still a nice utility/bench type player for your team but not much more than that.
Adam LaRoche (PIT) – This is pretty low for someone coming off a 32 HR season. However I’m not crazy about the trade to Pittsburgh, which might cause Adam to get even less focused than he usually is, although being arbitration eligible the next few years should get his attention. And he still struggles somewhat against left-handers, and am worried he could fall back into a platoon situation. The good news is LaRoche figures to hit cleanup for the Buccos, as apposed to sixth or seventh in the A-T-L. Pick your poison.
Adrian Gonzalez (SD) – Became perhaps the Padres biggest power threat last year, hitting over .300 with 24 HR’s. Still just a pup at age 24 so he could improve even more.
Mike Jacobs (FL) – Classic ‘post-hype’ sleeper here. Was on everyone’s radar after hitting 11 HR in 100 late season at-bats in 2005, but initially struggled upon being in the show for good to start last year. The final numbers wound up not being too bad, but Jacobs is going to have to take it to the next level this year and prove he is more than platoon fodder.
Howie Kendrick (ANG) – The first guarantee here is playing time, and Kendrick is being touted as an immense talent as well as a future batting champ. However it is at second base where Howie's permanent home will be starting this year, and he will be a key cog in the CDM Challenge at that position. More on Howie in my second base preview.
Nomar Garciaparra (LA) – Even with all of his frequent injuries, Nomar still had to be mentioned near the top when he was ranked with the shortstops. At first base however, he’s just another guy. Nomar was among the league leaders in BA for quite a while in 2006, but not enough power for the position. If (or when) Nomar goes on the shelf this year, rookie James Loney might prove to be not much of a dropoff.
Conor Jackson (AZ) – Got a nice 140 games in last year, and hit .290 with 15 home runs. Playing in one of the majors best hitting parks, Conor has plenty of upside potential at just age 24 this year. Target him as a potential late-round steal.
Chris Duncan (STL) – 23 HR/46 RBI pretty impressive work for literally a half-season's worth of work. Albert Pujols missed just enough time last year to earn Duncan eligibility at first as well as the outfield. Duncan's minor-league stats wasn't nearly that impressive, so don't use his 2006 Cardinals numbers as a baseline.
Victor Martinez (CLE) – 22 games at first last year is just enough to get Vic eligible here as well as behind the dish.
Ryan Garko (CLE) – 45 RBI in just 50 games last year ought to get your attention. Don’t expect 150 games though as Cleveland has other options at first base.
Kevin Youkilis (BOS) – Offers things you would not expect out of a first basemen, such as hitting leadoff, a near .400 on-base percentage, and 100 runs scored last year. Did cement himself as the Red Sox first basemen last year, appearing in 147 games while forcing J.T. Snow into retirement. If he’s in your lineup you will have to look for your power elsewhere though.
Mike Sweeney (KC) – Only eligible at DH these days, Sweeney would probably still be worth 20 HR/80 RBI if he just stayed reasonably healthy. Obviously this is an entry that gets branded with a red cross, crutch, ambulance, or any other icon you can get your hands on.
Nick Johnson (WSH) – Perhaps the closest thing the Nationals have to a true power hitter these days, Nick is coming off a fairly grisly leg injury that ended last season.
Xavier Nady (PIT) – Has had some pretty good moments with the Mets and Padres in recent years, but he seems to falling into a platoon fourth outfielder/first baseman type. Anything more than 20 homers would be a bonus.
Casey Kotchman (ANG) – A true wild card that may be worth your while late in a draft. Projected as a top rookie last year, Kotchman hit a buck-50, caught mono, and done for the year by early May. Kotch will have spring training competition, but if he’s fully recovered he end up being a top talent at a very low price. Goes for 400 in the CDM Challenge.
Dan Johnson (OAK) – This may be his final chance to prove that he is more than just prospect material. A batting average drop from .275 to .234 was his most alarming development last year.
Shea Hillenbrand (ANG) – He sure had an interesting 2006, got ran out of Toronto after an ugly confrontation with manager John Gibbons, everyone thought Shea was nuts until another Blue Jays player dropped the gloves with the manager later on in the year. Shea finished the year in San Francisco, where he kept a low profile and actually finished the year with a career-high 21 home runs. Now enters a crowded situation in Anaheim, and should see time at both first and third.
Scott Thorman (ATL) – The Braves new first basemen is a lot like their old first basemen. Thorman could be good for at least decent power numbers if he plays full-time, but struggles mightily against lefties.
Rich Aurilia (SF) – After getting discarded and bouncing around some organizations the last few years, Aurilia exceeded expectations with 23 HR's for Cincinnati last year. Things now come full-circle for Aurilia as he now returns to the Giants, where he will be hard-pressed to match those power numbers. A shortstop by trade but only eligible at first base, at least to start the season.
James Loney (LA) – Considered the Dodgers first baseman of the future, jump him up about 15 spots if something were to happen to Nomar in spring training. Considered a Lyle Overbay type who will hit, just not for a lot of power.
Wes Helms (PHI) – Has a great shot at regular playing time for the first time in a few years, as he should be an improvement over the departed David Bell at third base, and his eligibility there as well as first gives his value a boost, along with playing in one of the better bandboxes in the bigs.
Sean Casey (DET) – If you had him in a playoff league last year, he probably helped you in the World Series as he was literally the only thing the Tigers have. Was a 25 HR/100 RBI guy as recently as 2004, but I would be surprised if he were to even approach 20 this year.
Ryan Shealy (KC) – Former Rockies prospect will at the very least find regular playing time for the Royals. What I don’t like is that he strikes out about once every four appearances.
Olmedo Saenz (LA) – 11 HR and 48 RBI in just 179 AB’s would translate into a pretty good season if you were multiply it by three. Worth a waiver-wire pickup if injuries were to strike at either first or third.
Greg Norton (TB) – Another player whose part-time stats would look pretty good projected into a full-season, 17 HR, 45 RBI in just under 300 AB’s. The problem is Norton had his ‘career year’ at age 33 and is likely to be run over by the D-Rays youth movement.
Ben Broussard (SEA) – Strictly a platoon guy, Broussard is worth 20 HR/70 RBI at the very most.
Chris Shelton (DET) – Went from a threat to catch Barry Bonds (9 HR in his first 13 games) to a trip back to the minors by August. 107 AB’s in just 373 AB’s turned out to be his downfall.
Phil Nevin (FA) – Ever hear that song ‘I’ve been everywhere man’, that’s been Phil playing for four different teams in just over a year. Still had 22 HR’s in just under 400 AB’s last year, but barely hits his weight these days and has never been the greatest clubhouse guy. Other end game possibilities include Dmitri Young, who is also looking for a taker after some legal troubles last year. Craig Wilson is also on the FA list at press time. And then there’s Julio Franco, you have to like a 48-year old who stole six bases in just 165 AB’s last year.
