'THE EDGE' (COMING SOON!!) |
Albert Pujols (STL) – To get an idea on just how valuable Albert is, lets look at the WORST of his first eight years. A .314 batting average (2002), and 99 runs, 32 HR, and 103 RBI (all in 2007). Now lets look at the average production, a .334 lifetime hitter, averaging 118 runs, 40 HR, and 122 RBI. If Pujols were to equal those numbers for the next eight years, he would close the 2016 season with 3062 career hits and 638 career home runs and would at that point still only be listed at 36 years old. If Al were to last only four more years after that he would be a lock for 3,500 hits and would pass Hank Aaron on the all-time home run list by the end of the 2020 season. Translated, the man is pretty good. This is some worry after off-season elbow surgery, but things are said to have gone so well that Pujols wants to play in the World Baseball Classic in March, although 'insurance issues' may prevent him from doing so. But just from those developments there should be nothing stopping you from listing Pujols as the #1 first baseman and one of the three top overall picks.
Ryan Howard (PHI) – Yes he strikes out 200 times per year and will hurt on the batting average a little, but where else are you going to see an AVERAGE of 51 HR/140+ RBI from the last three years. Howard's average isn't so low that it's puts you in a hopeless hole in the BA department -you can make up for that elsewhere. Another myth is that Howard's monster numbers are the product of his home park, his career home runs are almost split right down the middle (90 home/87 away) and Howard has actually driven 27 more runs in his career on the road.
Miguel Cabrera (DET) – On the surface, it seemed like Cabrera's first season in Detroit was a horrible disappointment, maybe it was because the team in general had a bad year. But when the dust settled, Cabrera still flirted with a .300 average with 37 HR/127 RBI. Think of him as a poor man's Pujols, and perhaps not even that poor. 
Mark Teixeira (NYY) – The man that no one can afford ---- well, except for the Yankees. Teixeira hasn't been good for much more than 30 home runs since leaving the Texas launching pad a couple years back, but in the middle of a loaded lineup Teixeira will at the very least be good for his usual .300/100/30/100, and that is the low-end expectations, look for at least a few more ribbies than that.
Adrian Gonzalez (SD) – If he was playing anywhere else than Diego right now, Adrian would be a MAJOR star. On the road last year he hit .308/63/22/70/.578 slugging as opposed to .247/40/14/49 at home. But unlike pitcher Jake Peavy, don't look for Adrian to be dealt anytime soon, he is from the area and the face of the franchise, and in the final analysis the overall numbers still will not be bad, and at age 26 his numbers could spike even more this year. In a challenge game/salary cap format Adrian would be very useful for weeks the Padres are on the road, in particular 34 RBI in 29 career games at Colorado, where SD plays three series per year.
Prince Fielder (MIL) – After what was actually a pretty significant dropoff after becoming the youngest player to hit 50 home runs in 2007, Prince actually comes as a potential bargain this year. This time around, at least he's gotten things taken care of contract wise – after being angered for being renewed by the team for a measly $660,000 last year, Fielder is now inked to a 2-year/$18 million contract, which is actually a small bargain on the Brewers side. Although thought of as being out of shape, Prince is actually durable, playing in at least 157 games in each of the last three years.
Lance Berkman (HOU) – The final numbers were actually a bummer after a monster May which saw Lance hit .471 and slug .856. After the All-Star break Berkman only went .259/35/7/33, which raises possible alarms going forward. Berkman also surprised last year with 18 stolen bases, by far his career high – don't expect that again. All of this said, keep in mind that Berkman goes in streaks and when all is done should have a .300 average, 30 HR/100 RBI minimum.
Justin Morneau (MN) – His home runs dropped off last season (23), but has not flirted with 130 RBI in two of the last three seasons. You also know he is going to be in the lineup every day, he played in every single one of the Twins 163 games (including the one-game playoff) last season.
Kevin Youkilis (BOS) – Went from being merely serviceable into a pretty darn good fantasy commodity last year, especially considering he's also eligible at third base. A .300+ batting average while pushing 30 HR and driving in 115 in a power-packed lineup???Youk is making some potential 'bust' lists here in the spring but I don't see too much disastrous that can happen with him neither.
Chris Davis (TX) – Double his stats from 80 games last year and you have 100+ runs, 34 HR, and 115 RBI to go along with that .285 batting average. And at 6'4” 235 and 22 years old playing in one of the majors best hitting ballparks – and also eligible at third base??? Let's just say the potential for monster numbers exist – do not wait long on draft day. David Ortiz (BOS) – DH eligible only in most formats. Papi missed significant time last year with a hand injury, but if you projected out for a fill schedule he would had still ended close to 35 HR/120 RBI, but his slugging percentage drop from .621 to .507 is concerning. It seems like he's been in Boston forever, but the left-hander should not have a huge dropoff at age 33.
Carlos Pena (TB) – Just a year removed from a 46 HR/121 RBI campaign in 2007, it's pretty good to find this kind of power outside the top ten. Pena takes a drop for he was in a horrendous slump during the first half of '08 before landing and the DL. But Pena re-emerged as a power threat in the second half, with 17 HR/55 RBI in his final 66 games. You could have some batting average issues but Pena should still have excellent power numbers in the middle of a formidable lineup.
Joey Votto (CIN) – With both Morneau and Votto at it's disposal, you think a trade could be worked out for some pitching for the World Baseball Classic??? Who wants to be a Canadian for two weeks??? I think Bud could find a way for it to work out. Votto should make the final climb towards the elite tier of first basemen this season. Votto's home park in Cincinnati is definitely not a negative, but his numbers are just as good on the road. Even more importantly, the left-hander hits as well against lefties as righties. 30 HR/100 is not an unrealistic expectation.
Aubrey Huff (BAL) - He sees most of his time these days at DH, but got out the leather just enough at first base (24 games) as well as third (33 games) to be eligible at both positions - and is coming off his best statistical year (.304/96/32/108), the dual eligibility seems to slip through the cracks on some publications - I think he is a tremendous value on draft day.
Carlos Delgado (NYM) – Out of desperation, I was forced to draft Delgado in one of my leagues last year, and for the first two months he looked washed up as his batting average struggled to get above .200. But from June 27 on, Delgado was on fire with 27 HR/80 RBI – projecting to 50 HR/150 RBI over a full season. I don't expect that out of a full season at age 37, and his BA may continue to be an issue and the Mets new ballpark is not expected to be a bandbox. Still not a bad option.
Derrek Lee (CHC) – If you like batting average, Lee is always going to be one of the better options available. Problem is Lee only has 20 HR power and usually doesn't make it to the 100 run or 100 RBI plateau, and he doesn't steal nearly as much as he did earlier in the decade. There's a possibility that his power is eroding even more, he only hit five HR's after the All-Star break last year. 
James Loney (LA) – The lack of power numbers (15 HR last year) is a turn-off, but Loney as it stands right now has the tools to contend for a batting title and hit way above .300, and at age 25 could very well bust out this coming season. I'm not going to go that looney over Loney, but there is very good upside potential.
Paul Konerko (CWS) – His stats had been down playing hurt the last two years and had also been subject to trade talks, but Konerko is very capable of bouncing back this year. After August 1 last year Konerko hit .290 with 13 HR/29 RBI – there is still 30 HR/100 RBI upside here. Jim Thome (CWS) – DH eligible only in most formats. His career resume if Hall-of-Fame worthy, and with a couple of more decent seasons he could definitely make a run at 600 career HR's. But Thome turns 39 this season, his batting average is definitely going south, and is high maintenance in regards to keeping him in the lineup. If you need someone good for a possible 30 HR's, he is worth remembering in the middle of most drafts. 
Pablo Sandoval (SF) – Flew through the Giants system last year scoring 120 runs and driving in 114 RBI at all levels, and proved he was ready by hitting .345 with the big club. Sandoval also saw time at third base and is also a catcher by trade. If Sandoval gets 1B/3B eligibility or even better catcher eligibility then his value really goes up – he may be one of SF's best offensive options this year. Hank Blalock (TX) – Saw enough action in yet another injury marred campaign to be eligible at both first and third base last year, which is a good thing because he may only be DH eligible come next year. Blalock has always had the potential, and could well return to 30 HR/100 RBI form if he actually stays in one piece for the entire year.
Mike Jacobs (KC) – Many don't like his move to Florida to Kansas City, but at least he can be used at DH more in the American League. You could get another 30 HR, but not as many RBI as from comparable power guys and your batting average takes a hit as well.
Jason Giambi (OAK) – He can still crank out the home runs, averaging one HR per 14.25 AB's last year – too bad his batting average isn't nearly what it once was, which means he will fit right back into the Oakland line-up. Be prepared to compensate elsewhere for the sub-.250 average from the aging slugger. 
Lyle Overbay (TOR) – I wouldn't go too overboard on Overbay these days, in fact you might be able to find Overbay on Overstock if you look hard enough. There was a time where O-Bay was at least good for 20 HR and possibly a .300 average. Now there isn't one fantasy category where Overbay is an asset in, even his 53 double from back in 2004 is now just a memory. But at least he's penciled in the lineup every day. 
Jorge Cantu (FL) - It's what the Marlins do best, finding someone off the scrap heap who ends up doing very well for them as cheap labor. It wasn't noticed much because (a) it was with the Marlins and (b) he did a lot of his damage in September, but Cantu wound up with 29 HR/95 RBI. Cantu is still only age 27, so it figures that he would at some point return to somewhere near the prominence of that 117 RBI campaign with Tampa a few years back. Cantu is eligible at both first and third, but is considered to be somewhat of a defensive liability. The Marlins also re-signed him to a 1 year/$3.5 million deal, and anyone making that sort of coin with the Marlins instantly becomes someone on the trade block.
Conor Jackson (AZ) – Like a few of his D-Backs teammates, Conor was a stud last April hitting close to .350 while both scoring and driving in 24 runs, but tailed off after that. Jackson is still young, but we haven't seen anything beyond 15 HR at this point, and your looking for more long balls than that out of this position.
Casey Kotchman (ATL) – What the Braves came away with after trading Mark Teixiera last year. Kotchman has been a disappointment in the power department, and only hit two out in 43 games with the Braves. You are banking on the fact that Kotchman is still only 26 this year, so the light could come on at any time. 
Travis Hafner (CLE) – DH eligible only in most formats. .308 with 42 HR/117 RBI, that was only three years ago. Hafner's power then suddenly went south before undergoing shoulder surgery at the end of last year. This is a good player to watch this spring, if his power appears to be back move him up 6-8 spots on this list. 
Adam LaRoche (PIT) – Ranked right around where he was last year - Has actually been pretty serviceable the last three years, hitting 25 HR and averaging close to 90 RBI. But there isn't a lot around him in the Pittsburgh lineup so he's not going to get the knock opportunities he may get elsewhere. Chad Tracy (AZ) – Has a couple of 20 HR seasons under his belt but has battled knee problems the last couple of years. If he proves healthy enough, Tracy could also end up seeing time at third base. Billy Butler (KC) – Was on a lot of sleeper lists in the spring of 2008, but by May Butler found himself back in Omaha before righting himself somewhat. He's still only 22, but is going to find a lot of competitions for AB's amongst the 1B/DH types in KC. It remains to be seen if he develops or just becomes the latest version of Steve Balboni/Bob Hamelin. Ryan Garko (CLE) – Did finish last season with 90 RBI, but only 14 home runs. I don't like Garko's prospects for this year as there will be plenty of other options (Hafner/V. Martinez/Shoppach) at 1B/DH in Cleveland. Carlos Guillen (DET) – With 24 games at first last year, he gets eligibility there as well as third base, but with his pedestrian power numbers doesn't nearly hold the value he did as a shortstop.
Todd Helton (COL) – This slide picked up steam last year, as Helton missed a huge chunk of the season and eventually needed back surgery. The team is hopeful that Helton will be ready by opening day, but he doesn't have much power left these days. Helton is just a guy with a albatross of a paycheck for his organization at this point. Daric Barton (OAK) – Is projected to eventually be a good average hitter without a lot of power. Hopefully that average will come because .226 in his first full season is not going to cut it. Gaby Sanchez (FL) – Was his league's MVP in AA last year, and has the inside track for the starting job this year with Mike Jacobs departing. Not a big power guy though so keep your expectations low. Nick Swisher (NYY) - He's like the prom date who was selected because someone just didn't want to wind up empty-handed, only to find out later he had a much better offer. Swisher was acquired by the Yankees early in the off-season process, but then or course landed that Teixeira guy. Now caught in a numbers game in the Bronx, Swisher has been linked trade rumors ever since. Swisher has averaged 25 home runs the last four years, but BA had always been an issue and took a turn for the worse after hitting .219 last year. Hopefully Nick finds a change of address before he has to report to Legends Fields and tone down his locks.
Jose Vidro (FA) – Part of several players who were purged during the Mariners disastrous 2008 season, Vidro is pounding the pavement along with many other MLB players and Governor Blago right now. But at least Blago has a good book deal coming up. Vidro hit in the .300 range in 2006-07, so you have to think a team takes a look at him in Spring Training. DH eligible only in most formats. Frank Thomas (OAK) - Was released by the Blue Jays early in the season and was on the DL for much of the time after being picked up by Oakland. You have to think this year is the last go around for Thomas. 
Kendry Morales (ANG) – Have been waiting for him to make an impact since defecting from Cuba a few years back. With Teixeira out of town it may be now or never with him this time around. Ryan Shealy (KC) – Had a red hot September and wound up with seven home runs in 73 AB's. But Shealy is out of minor league options and caught in a numbers game with the Royals. His chances at age 29 will probably be better with another club. 
Nick Johnson (WSH) – It's between he and Dmitri Young for the Nats first base job, problem is both players have easily gone through their health insurance deductables the past few years. Kila Ka'Aihue (KC) – Yet another player in the Royals 1B/DH mess. Kila gets your attention by hitting 34 HR in minor league ball last year – someone to keep an eye on with the wavier wire at some point this year. Travis Ishikawa (SF) – Drove in 15 RBI with the big club in 33 games last year and is the front-runner to see the most time at first in Frisco this year. He also figures to sit often against lefties. Dmitri Young (WSH) – Just about literally came off his death bed to earn an All-Star berth a couple years back, but I don't see him being able to stay in once piece any longer. If the Nats drop him in spring training that may well signal the end. Matt LaPorta (CLE) – The main booty Cleveland received in the CC Sabathia deal, and could be 1B and outfield eligible in time. LaPorta has not seen action as of yet in the majors so he figures to open the season at AAA. Rich Aurilia (SF) – Has eligibility at first and third base, but doesn't do a whole lot to help in any position at this late stage in his career, and should be looked at as a cheap waiver-wire one or two week fill-in only. John Bowker (SF) – Was a waiver wire wonder after a hot week last April, but did not do much out of that. He might help you to a title if you play in a Pacific Coast Fantasy League. Ross Gload (KC) – How many Royals do I have on the first base list??? Ross is a nice serviceable player who you should be able to get off the waiver wire if you happen to be very desperate. Sean Doolittle (OAK) – One more prospect for the road. Doolittle hit 22 home runs in A/AA ball last year, then hit .293 with eight homers in the Arizona Fall League. Jason Giambi is up there in years and Daric Barton does not exactly have a firm grasp on things, so there's a good chance Doolittle will get a look with the big club this year.