'THE EDGE' (COMING SOON!!) |
Albert Pujols (STL) – Probably #2 in player of the decade behind Arod, only because Pujols didn't get going until 2001. Projecting that Pujol's career is half-over at age 30, conservative estimates having him ending up with 700+ home runs, 2100+ RBI, and easily over 3,000 hits with a career .334 batting average thus far. As an extra bonus last year, Pujols also unexpectedly tied his career high with 16 stolen bases. Don't get too comfy with the SB's, but there are good first basemen, there are star first basemen, and then there's Al. If he's available with the #2 overall pick consider yourself fortunate.
Mark Teixeira (NYY) – After Pujols, the next five or maybe even six first basemen on this list are bunched pretty close together. If you wind up with the #3 or #4 ranked first-sacker, or even #5 or #6 – you should be in good shape. Although he did not quite have the RBI production of Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder, I give Teixeira the slightest of nods for the batting average category (should be a little above .300) along with playing in Yankee Stadium which works for him whether he's hitting lefty or righty, and the protection of the NY lineup in general. If you like the power numbers of the next two first basemen on this list, feel free to go in that direction if you wish.
Prince Fielder (MIL) – I'll say straight up that I have Prince and Ryan Howard almost even, they both hit left-handed and are both arguably the most prolific power hitters in the game. The difference – less strikeouts equals a higher batting average for Fielder. The possible offsetting negative is that Prince has pissed some oppositions off and that could lead to a distraction and/or possible incident leading to a suspension, there will be a blowup at some point. There is also a possibility of a trade out of Milwaukee, but Prince is not a free agent until after 2011 so barring the Brewers being well out of contention I expect him to stay put this year. 
Ryan Howard (PHI) – Actually, this would be pretty darn good for #4. The worst Howard has done in the last four years in the power departments are 45 HR/136 RBI. Some will credit Howard's home park for the power boost, but guess what, Ryan hit 27 HR/84 RBI on the ROAD last year. If you think he can hit close to the .305 he hit after the All-Star break last year, then put him ahead of Teixeira and Fielder. Most likely the high strikeout rate will put Howard around the .270-.280 range, but that's the only negative.
Adrian Gonzalez (SD) – As a San Diego Padre, move Adrian off of the top tier of first basemen. The home park absolutely kills him, and the Padres have him relatively cheap for the next two seasons, with a club option coming in 2011, and Adrian is a hometown product and relatively happy there. But even the meager $10.25 owed for the next two seasons is a lot of coin for the San Diego organization, and it's a good bet that Adrian will be moved at some point this year. If so, depending on where he ends up, Adrian's value goes through the roof. Want an idea?? Last two seasons Adrian has hit .307/50 HR/133 RBI – put him somewhere like Fenway Park and the potential is absolutely crazy. If Adrian's slumping early this year, that might be a good time to find an owner who's perhaps down and target him for a trade before the trade market heats up.
Miguel Cabrera (DET) – You will see Miggy ranked as high as #2 on some lists. Cabrera has been annually good for a .320 average, 30+ HR and 110+ RBI in recent seasons, despite playing his home games in pitchers parks in Florida and Detroit. Cabrera is also still listed as only being age 26 and has been money in the durability department, playing in at least 157 games over the last six years. Cabrera's off-field escapades proved to be a huge distraction during the last week of the regular season, but showed up at an off-season function after reportedly spending three months in alcohol rehab. Cabrera currently is in the middle of a monster contract that will see him make $20+ million annually for the next six years. It's possible that Detroit will trade him if they get the right offer.
Joey Votto (CIN) – Starting the 'best of the rest' category, and Votto seemed well on his way to joining the elite at the position after hitting .360 with 8 HR/33 RBI in his first 36 games last year. But then Votto was forced to take some time off to deal with personal matters in the aftermath following the passing of his father. Votto still wound up hitting .322 with 25 HR despite missing that one month. Although he plays in a hitter-friendly park, Votto's hits just as well on the road and actually had a higher BA there last year. Votto has been mentioned in some trade conversation, although the Reds GM vows that will not happen, that Votto is in fact a centerpiece.
Kendry Morales (ANG) – The last couple of years I have had Kendry near the end of this list just in case manager Mike Scioscia actually decided to give him some AB's in the show. That time came last year, and the results were impressive, .306 avg, 34 HR, 108 RBI. There is only that one year to go one, but by next year at this time Kendry may just be one of the 'A' listers at the position.
Pablo Sandoval (SF) – Usually when a player can't hit his weight, that is not a good thing. In Sandoval's case hitting his weight puts him in line for a batting title. OK, that's a slight exaggeration, but Sandoval has become a solid 3-hole hitter coming off a .330 season w/power. Although playing mostly at third last year, Sandoval did play 26 games at first and is expected to play full-time there going forward.
Kevin Youkilis (BOS) – The only downside here is that the evidence is that the last two years may have been the peak for Youk, but still that is not bad, 100 runs, near 30 homers, 100 RBI, .300 average. Don't look at an MVP award, but still a significant contributor in the Boston lineup. If you already have a first baseman Youk is also eligible at third.
Justin Morneau (MN) – Does not hit as many home runs as the big boys, but has driven in 470 over the past four years. Joe Mauer hitting ahead of him does help in that area. But health has become a concern and Morneau is coming off surgery. Another X factor is how the new yard will impact the team, and ultimately his stats going forward.
Mark Reynolds (AZ) – Established himself in 2009 as one of the premiere pure power sluggers in the game, and is listed here at first base on the basis of the 28 games played there last year.
Derrek Lee (CHC) – Put up his best numbers since his 2005 campaign, with 35 HR, 111 RBI and a .579 slugging percentage despite missing three weeks of the season. The days of him making noise on the basepaths are long gone, and Lee only hit 22 and 20 home runs the previous two years. Still if everything goes right you should still get the high average along with the power.
Lance Berkman (HOU) – It has been diminishing returns over the past four years – from 45 home runs to 34 to 29 to 25 last year. Still his stat-lines run very similar to Derrek Lee and are both in the same stage of their careers (age 34). Berkman did steal 18 bases as recently as 2008 but I am not expecting him to approach that again.
Adam Dunn (WSH) – Dunn's streak of 40+ home run seasons ended at five last year, but one can't complain too much about 38 either. It has also been well established that Dunn will be amongst the league leaders in walks as well as strikeouts, and his batting average suffers. At age 30, Dunn is on pace for a career that could conclude with a home run total approaching 600.
Carlos Pena (TB) – If you like pure 40+ home run possibilities than Pena is your man, you cannot argue with 116 HR's over the past three years. But you pay for it with a .247 career batting average. If you have good average hitters or you are in a points format, then Carlos is a good option. David Ortiz (BOS) – DH eligible only in most formats. When looking at his final power numbers (28 HR/99 RBI), you would never know that he was the butt of jokes and concern when he only had one home run at the end of May. The decline in batting average could not be covered up in the final stats, as Ortiz only hit .238 after hitting .332 just two years earlier. His days of hitting 50+ home runs (2006) are over and his name came up in the PED controversy last year as well. Will this be another case of a player who declined badly after being forced to come clean?? The good news is that if you believe he can be had relatively cheap this year.
Billy Butler (KC) After an aborted start in 2008, Butler proved he could handle the grind for the entire season in '09, and wound up hitting .300 with 21 HR/93 RBI. Butler had shown a lot of potential coming through the Royals systems, so his emergence was long anticipated. Fared much better at home, where he hit .362 (.612 slugging pct.) along with 16 of the 21 home runs.
Paul Konerko (CWS) – A basic middle-class first baseman, and as vanilla as you are going to get – 30 HR/90 RBI/about a .270 average. After getting one of the bigger bats Konerko makes a nice backup or DH option.
Garrett Jones (PIT) – There's only a half-year's worth of data to go on, but what a half-season, hitting 21 home runs and slugging .567. The worries are that RBI opps will always be limited on the lowly Pirates, and the book on how to pitch him should now be out as he faces NL pitching the second time around. Like predecessor Jason Bay, Jones will find himself being pitched around often. 
Jorge Cantu (FL) - Re-ups with the Marlins on a 1 year-$6 million deal, and actually has been very solid the last two years driving in 95 and 100 runs, that to go along with a year with Tampa Bay a few years earlier that saw him drive in 117. No longer plays second like he did earlier in his career but eligible at both of the corner positions. Michael Cuddyer (MN) - With Justin Morneau missing time last year, it allowed Cuddyer to log 34 appearances at first, which makes him eligible here as well as in the outfield. After only hitting three home runs in 71 games last year, Cuddyer bounced back with a career campaign with 32 HR/94 RBI. Adam LaRoche (AZ) – His numbers in recent years have actually been well, .270 average, 25 HR, 80-something RBI. After bouncing between the Pirates, Red Sox, and Braves last year Adam actually lands in a pretty good spot in Arizona. He should fit in there.
Chris Davis (TX) – As much of a train wreck as his season was before a mid-season demotion (114 K's in 258 AB's, .202 avg), Davis did right himself later on in the year and still has 30+ home run potential and is still very young. The good news is Davis can be had much cheaper than last year.
James Loney (LA) – The turnoff with Loney is that you look for power at first base, and you won't get it there. That said Loney has still hit .280+ with 90 RBI in each of the last two seasons. Still young enough to develop more power and obviously in a good lineup – but there will always be a power ceiling playing on the West Coast.
Todd Helton (COL) – Health is an issue and is now age 37. That said, Helton is still a factor in the batting average department. Especially at home where he was .348/10/54/.541 last year. At the very least Helton can help you in a pinch and you can platoon him the weeks he's at home.
Troy Glaus (ATL) – Glaus has only played six games at first in his 12-year MLB career, but this is where the Braves plan to use him this year. Power has never been an issue with Glaus, although injuries and maintaining a decent batting average have. Nick Johnson (NYY) – It's between he and Dmitri Young for the Nats first base job, problem is both players have easily gone through their health insurance deductables the past few years. Nick Swisher (NYY) – Then there is the other Nick, who appeared in exactly the 20 games required at first base to be eligible, although now an outfielder by trade. 131 HR's over last five years not bad, but the batting average will bring you down.
Hank Blalock (FA) – A 25-30 HR guy a few years back, injuries derailed his career for a couple seasons but showed last year that he still has the power stroke. Pittsburgh has been mentioned as a possible destination at this writing, formally a third baseman, Blalock is only eligible at first these days. 
Travis Hafner (CLE) – 2006 seems like a long time ago, when Hafner was near MVP material hitting .308/.659/100/42/117, but it has been all downhill from there. Hafner remains in Cleveland and is owed $37.5 million for the last three years, a contract the organization now regrets. Hafner is optimistic about his shoulder being strong enough to handle an everyday workload this coming year. The last time Hafner played the field was 2007. Justin Smoak (TX) – My guess is that he will be a hot property on the waiver wire at some point this year, and with Hank Blalock out of town and Chris Davis a big question mark, Smoak is the next prospect in line to potentially play first for Texas. I don't expect to open with the big club, but will be drafted late in many formats. Before getting a promotion to AAA last year, Smoak had a .449 OBP in AA ball. Russell Branyan (CLE) – For nearly a decade baseball experts had wondered how Branyan would come out over the course of an entire season id he were just given an every day job. 2009 perhaps will be the closest we'll get to that answer, before being shut down in August Branyan was on pace for a 40 HR season and was actually hitting .250. However that was not even enough to impress the Mariners who parted ways at the end of the season. Branyan is now signed on with Cleveleand, where he will be in the 1B/DH mix. Aubrey Huff (SF) - A 30 HR, 100+ RBI man back in .208, Aubrey plummeted last year and now lands in San Francisco, where power has been known to land harmlessly on the warning track. Do not like the final destination here, although the Giants do have an improved lineup.
Fernando Tatis (NYM) – Great option to plug into a lineup, Tatis has eligibility at first, third, and in the outfield. In 613 AB's the past two years Tatis has hit near .290 with 19 HR/95 RBI.. Jim Thome (MN) – After 564 career home runs Thome is slowly closing out his career, he was acquired by the Dodgers late last year for pinch-hitting and possible World Series AB's had LA gone that far. Thome has drawn interest from AL teams this off-season, a return to the White Sox is possible with Detroit and Tampa Bay also mentioned. Don't expect full-time play, and Thome's average has taken a hit in recent years. Ryan Garko (FA) – A late-season acquisition by the Giants as Cleveland cleaned house late in the year, Garko doesn't offer much in home runs but hits very well off left-handers. There has been absolutely no word on where Garko may wind up once camp opens – will probably be a platoon piece for some team that finds itself in need. Martin Prado (ATL) – Guaranteed you will be looking at Prado at either second or third base, where he is also eligible. But in case you need it Prado also saw action in 29 games at first last year.
Daric Barton (OAK) – The frontrunner to be Oakland's opening day first baseman, Barton is probably a nice bench prospect with some potential. There hasn't been a whole lot out of him in the power or batting average departments at the Major League level thus far though. Jeff Clement (PIT) – A former #3 overall pick, Clement had been considered a much brighter prospect in the Seattle system as a catcher the past few years, but did not see any action in an injury-marred 2009. Since catcher was the last position he played in the majors, he should have eligibility there if he's on the big club.
Ty Wigginton (BAL) – Ty's biggest value is actually position eligibility. In some formats Ty was eligible at all four infield spots at the end of the year and has also seen action in the outfield in prior seasons. The departure of Melvin Mora appeared to had bode well, but the Orioles recently reacquired Miguel Tejada and expect to start him at third. Garrett Atkins (BAL) – You think your 401K took a tumble last year?? After three seasons of 20+ home runs and being considered one of baseballs more promising third baseman, Atkins took a nosedive across the board last year, ultimately resulting in the Rockies redeeming him expendable. Whether he can bounce back in the American League is in question, as Atkins is only a .252 career hitter away from Coors Field. Atkins did play enough at first (28 game) last year to qualify at both corner positions. Daniel Murphy (NYM) – Not exactly a big fan favorite with the Mets but he's about the only option they have going into cmap. Murphy is not going to help much in the power department but he does also see action in the outfield.
Lyle Overbay (TOR) – This is not exactly a career on the upswing, as Overbay simply does not hit left-handers. Overbay is always good for racking up a slew of doubles but that has never translated to the home run department. It is no secret that the Blue Jays would love to get rid of Lyle, but have not found any takers.
Casey Kotchman (SEA) – After closing last year in a part-time role not doing much for Boston, the Mariners made off like bandits ridding themselves of Bill Hall to acquire Kotchman. Like most Seattle hitters, do not expect power, but Kotchman does have familiarity with the AL West and usually hits for a decent average. Willy Aybar (TB) – If you double his 296 AB's from last year you would have a nice 24 HR/82 RBI. You may have more use for Aybar at second base, where he is also eligible and just falls short of third base eligibility (18 games in '09). Chad Tracy (FA) – His career seemed to be on the right track after hitting 47 home runs combined in 2005-06, but has been injury-riddled since and hasn't done much even when on the field. The D-Backs declined a $7 million option this off-season and Chad is floating on the open market. Brandon Allen (AZ) – Prospect Arizona got from the White Sox who has plenty of power, but also strikes out a ton (40 K's in 102 MLB at-bats). The departure of Chad Tracy should open the way for him. But Allen could be yet another low-average hitter in the D-Backs lineup. Carlos Delgado (FA) – As recently as 2008 Delgado hit 38 HR/115 RBI, but Delgado is now coming off a major injury and recently underwent a second hip operation which was said to be successful. Delgado hopes to be ready by August but first needs a team to hire him on. Chris Carter (OAK) – Do not confuse with another Chris Carter who is in the Mets organization. The Oakland Carter was acquired in the Dan Haren trade a year ago and was the Texas League MVP and ended up leading all of minor league ball with over 300 total bases. I would expect Carter's ETA in Oakland to be somewhere around mid-season, he could be hot waiver-wire material.