'THE EDGE' (COMING SOON!!) |
Ryan Braun (MIL) – Well, he is no longer eligible at third base and his stat lines did drop a bit last year, mainly after trying to play hurt late in the year – but Braun started to rebound in the final week with a pair of huge home runs that ultimately vaulted Milwaukee into the playoffs. And as if the huge power and .300 average is not enough, Braun also chips in about 15 steals. It has not taken Braun long to leap to the top of all Major League outfielders as far as fantasy rankings are concerned.
Carlos Beltran (NYM) – Not a spectacular pick, but Beltran has steadied himself as a reliable five-category player at age 32. Beltran's three best RBI seasons have been the last three (116, 112, 112), and has been over the 100 run mark seven times. The home runs have been on a decline (27 as opposed to 41 two years) ago but is still good for 20+ steals. Beltran is still relatively young at age 32. 
Carlos Lee (HOU) – Another member of my boring but reliable pick team. El Caballo does not look like the fittest man in Major League Baseball – but guess what, he rakes. Carlos was on pace for a 40 HR/130 RBI season when he was knocked out of action in mid-August by a broken hand. And even though you might first think power with El Caballo, also keep in mind that he has hit .300 or better in four of the last five campaigns. 
Alfonso Soriano (CHC) – He's starting to get along in years, doesn't steal quite as many bases as he used to, the batting average is OK but not exceptional, and he doesn't get a lot of RBI's to go along with his home runs. But guess what, the entire package with Soriano is still pretty good. Alfonso tends to be high-maintenance, but is still a top 20-25 overall player, but be aware of the risk. 
Manny Ramirez (LA) – I think it is time to finally take Manny's threats of retiring seriously. I think he has retired – as far as playing exhibition games in March are concerned, which I think is part of why Manny's camp has continued to prolong these protracted contract negotiations. Smart money says that Manny re-signs with LA simply because there are no other options – and personally I do not think you will see Manny drafted onto any of my fantasy teams, mainly because he is now a slow start and an injury-filled campaign waiting to happen with the late start. That said, you can't ignore the .396 average/17 HR/53 RBI in his 53 games with the Dodgers – I just don't think you will see Manny hit at that pace again, especially with the motivation gone once he reluctantly accepts that 2 year/$45 million package. Still, Manny still has to rank near the top of what is a fairly weak National Leauge outfield pool. Matt Kemp (LA) – It isn't quite all there yet, but Kemp has 20+ home run talent to go along with his speed (35 steals last year). At age 24, Kemp should become a 30/30 type fairly soon, whether it's this year or 2010-11. 
Ryan Ludwick (STL) – Out of absolutely nowhere, Ludwick flirted with an MVP-type season at age 30 with a .300 average, a .591 slugging percentage, 104 runs, 37 HR, and 113 RBI. Except for steals the man was on par with Ryan Braun. The only difference here is that you are not looking for additional upside, and that in fact his numbers might slip. Was it just a freakish career year?? Probably more a case of a late-bloomer, even if Ludwick tails off a little his numbers should still be fine. 
Nate McLouth (PIT) – The numbers do not lie, McLouth was an absolute bust-out last year with 26 homers, 23 steals, 113 runs scored, and 94 RBI. But is he capable of repeating those numbers, especially playing in Pittsburgh?? McLouth might not get pitched around the way Jason Bay used to if he makes the pitchers pay for the free passes by stealing second.
Shane Victorino (PHI) – Has stolen 35+ bases the last two years, has some moderate power, and hits a solid .290 from the top of the order. Victorino picked up his game even more in September and was a huge part of the Phillies World Championship run. His stats should remain solid for the forseable future. Corey Hart (MIL) – If September of 2008 had never happened, this would be a much easier pick. Still, the entire body of work thus far has not been bad, going 20/20 in each of the past two seasons. I think Hart is capable of reaching triple-figures in runs and/or RBI depending on where he hits in the lineup. If you took out a couple weeks Hart missed in 2007, he would had been making a run at 30/30. In his third full year, there is a good shot at everything coming together. 
Brad Hawpe (COL) – With Matt Holliday out of town, a larger portion of the Colorado offensive load will now have to fall on Hawpe. Despite getting benched against some left-handers, Hawpe has produced at around the .290/25 HR/90 RBI level the past three years. Unlike most Colorado players Hawpe's batting average was about the same both home and away last year. I easily see him cracking past the 30 HR/100 RBI mark this time around. 
Jay Bruce (CIN) – His highly anticipated debut came last May, and Bruce immediately started hitting the cover off the ball. Pitchers soon adjusted to him, and the rest of the year was a bit of a struggle, although he did find his power groove with 14 HR in the final two months. Still, even at age 21, you have to love the kids potential playing his home games in a great hitting park. Hunter Pence (HOU) – Walking right smack through a glass door last year about this time seemed to set the tone for the first half of 2008. In the end Pence did increase to 25 home runs in his second year although his batting average fell from a lofty .325 to .269. Think Corey Hart, but with a few less steals. 
Chris Young (AZ) – This is more of a potential pick here than anything else. Young fell from 32 to 22 home runs last year and also from 27 to 14 stolen bases. His batting average has also remained in the .240 range during that time. Still I like to look at the skill-set and that his career is still on the upswing. Young hit 19 home runs and stole 18 bases in the last 71 games of 2007 to get an idea of that power/speed potential. Somewhere just south of Carlos Beltran is the possible upside, Mike Cameron is the comparative downside. .
Adam Dunn (WSH) – Another pick for which there is little guesswork, Dunn has hit exactly 40 home runs in each of the last four seasons, and any batting average above .250 is a bonus. Dunn 's homers never translate into a ton of RBI, but he gets walked so often that he ends up doing very well in the run department. The bad news is his signing with Washington, which may hurt his home run totals slightly, although the big man is capable of hitting them out of Dulles airport if asked to. Raul Ibanez (PHI) – Often just an afterthought on draft day, Ibanez has had a tremendous late-career run, hitting a solid .290 and averaging a solid 113 runs batted in per year. And he's not an overnight sensation, Ibanez has also ripped 30+ doubles in each of the last seven seasons. Last year Ibanez played in all 162 games, driving in 110 runs on an awful Seattle team. Now get him off the Mariners and onto a contending team in Philadelphia, moving him from one of the worst hitting parks to one of the best. Age 36 is the only negative, but I say Ibanez easily has two more good years left in him. Rick Ankiel (STL) - Here's skill-set that I believe will run very much like Dunn, with perhaps a slightly better batting average. The sample size still isn't that great, but even since his high school days when he was considered an elite pitching project, his power has been prestigious. Unlike his old pitching days, it looks like Ankiel will be in the bigs for a while as a hitter. Andre Ethier (LA) – His production has taken baby steps, but has steadily improved – reaching the 20 home run plateau for the first time last year, and his run production exploding from 50 to 90 runs. Ethier also makes good contact, doesn't strike out much, and should be good for an average in the .300 range. Justin Upton (AZ) – Last April Upton looked like an emerging superstar, and he very well could be in time. But the rest of his season wound up being a disaster. Also keep in mind that Justin does not steal nearly like his brother. And there is the fact that Justin is still just age 21 – he will pick it up in time but it could be a few years yet. Milton Bradley (CHC) – Look at his last two years worth of work (623 AB's) and you have 35 HR/114. True most of that was in a hitter's haven in Texas last year but remember he played for Oakland and San Diego the year before. Consider he has hit close to .320 during that span and you realize Milton is more than an afterthought this time around. And you can also make the point about manager Lou Piniella being able to relate to Miltdown's anger deals. That said, there is still the injury history, which has already bitten him in Cubs camp. If you really think Milt can play 150 games, then knock him about five spots higher on this board. Lastings Milledge (WSH) – Has been oozing with potential for a couple of years now, and at some point should be good for 20+ home runs and 30+ steals. Hitting for a consistent high average has been a minor issue in his limited time in the bigs. Willy Taveras (CIN) – You want to solve your stolen base category. Draft Willy, and if he stays healthy most likely you won't have to worry about it. Taveras stole 68 bases in just 133 games to lead all of MLB – just make sure to keep him in your lineup as well as he is happy, as he has missed a ton of time in recent years. Jayson Werth (PHI) – Won himself a starting job last year and ended up reaching the 20 barrier in both home runs and stolen bases in just 418 AB's. Only problem is that the righty does not have a great batting average, and could be in risk of being platooned, so tone down projections of a possible 30-30 season. Elijah Dukes (WSH) – It says something to have three Washington outfielders ranked in the top-20 this year. Forget about the off-the-field stuff from a couple years ago which has been well chronicled. In exactly a half a season in Washington he improved from that lousy .190 average from the year before to .264, along with 13 HR/13 steals. Do the math and Dukes is very capable of a 30/30 year, and has plenty of time to do it at age 24. He's worth taking a chance on, especially if his head is screwed on straight. Juan Pierre (LA) – If you miss out on Taveras and crave speed, Pierre is not a bad consolation prize. Pierre has stolen 422 bases since 2001, 107 more than any other major leaguer during that time. Pierre's value goes up if the Dodger's don't re-sign Manny Ramirez. Otherwise Pierre sits behind Manny, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier in the LA outfield – although an injury be just one of those three would put Pierre in the lineup. Usually good for 100 runs, Pierre somehow just scored 44 times despite 40 stolen bases. 
Cameron Maybin (FL) – One of the more highly hyped prospects of the last couple of years, Maybin ended up spending most of last year in AA, and did not really have a spectacular year there – but did go 16-32 in a September look. If he starts last year he will be good for stolen bases and some power at the very least. 
Jeff Francoeur (ATL) – After a pair of 100-RBI campaigns, Francoeur is coming off a distaster last year that saw him only hit .239. Francoeur has not developed the way the A-T-L would like and there could be a change of address at some point. Mike Cameron (MIL) – Despite having to see out the first month of last year, Cameron still had solid numbers including 25 home runs at 17 stolen bases. As anyone who has owned him in the last ten years knows, Cameron suffers a bit in the batting average department. Ryan Church (NYM) – Was very strong in the first two months or '08, hitting over .300 with 33 runs, 9 HR, 31 RBI – but was derailed the rest of the way after sustaining a concussion. Being a lefty, there is risk that Church could fall into a platoon situation. 
Randy Winn (SF) – Hit a solid .300 for the second year in a row and his 25 stolen bases is the second biggest output of his career. Winn's run total is not exceptional and only offers a handful of a home runs. Winn has played in at least 149 games every year since 2002. Michael Bourn (HOU) – Good target here if you are looking at the potential of 50 steals. Bourn was also hot property this time last year, and although he did run a lot, he also spent much of 2008 hovering just above the Mendoza line, which brings back the old line that you can't steal first. Cody Ross (FL) – Had some crazy numbers in just 173 at-bats in 2007, including a .653 slugging percentage. The streaky Ross also had his moments in a more extended role with the Marlins last year, htting 22 home runs in 461 AB's. With Josh Willingham departed Ross is now Florida's everyday left fielder. Conor Jackson (AZ) – Split time between first base and the outfield last year. Has a nice batting average, doesn't strike out much – had decent but not exceptional power. Jeremy Hermida (FL) – Hermida's batting average took a huge drop last year, but Hermida is still just 25 and still has 20+ home run possibilities. The most discouraging thing about Hermida's season was hitting all of .203 at home. Fred Lewis (SF) – Had a very solid breakout year hitting about .280 with 21 stolen bases. 30 stolen bases is a possibility this year. Eric Byrnes (AZ) – One of the more valuable fantasy outfield players of 2007, when Byrnes hit 21 HR's/stol 50 bases, Byrnes crashed with two awful months followed by a season-ending hamstring injury. Despite signing a contract extension after that '07 season, Byrnes is on the outside looking in for a starting
Chase Headley (SD) – As the Padres season spiraled out of control, Headley was able to get his feet wet in the show and put up respectable numbers. One problem is that Chase chased a lot of pitches, a struck out in nearly a third of his at-bats. Garrett Anderson (ATL) – After 15 years in Anaheim, Anderson gets his first taste of the National League in the A-T-L. His stats the last three seasons have been virtually the same, .290 average, around 65 runs, 15 HR, 80 RBI. Aaron Rowand (SF) – Yeah, I did with this guy last year. The move from Philadelphia to San Francisco was a killer for Rowand's stats, as he plummeted from 27 to 13 home runs, and from 105 to 57 runs despite playing 151 games. Slugging percentage went from .515 to .410 while the BA went from .309 to .271. Kosuke Fukudome (CHC) – Kosuke's tenure with the Cubs started joyously enough with a game-tying home run on opening day, but his game deteriorated as the season went on, eventually finding some time on the bench. Kosuke is good at drawing walks and there are openings in the Cubs outfielder, but only 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 501 AB's doesn't make anyone a must have. Seth Smith (COL) – Figures to get first shot at left field with Matt Holliday and Willy Taveras gone, but there are going to be a lot of possible options in Colorado – more of a lottery ticket than anything else. Jody Gerut (SD) – After missing two full seasons due to injury, Gerut was a bright spot in a horrible Padres season, going .296/46/14/43/6 in just over a half season's worth of work. Don't look for him to get much better, especially considering his home park, but a nice late-round player. Chris Dickerson (CIN) – Had a very solid month late last season, going .304/20/6/15/5, but Dickerson is age 26 and his minor league work had never been overwhelming – but is still the front-runner to land an outfield gig in Cincy this year, Chris is a cousin of NFL Hall-of-Famer Eric Dickerson. Skip Schumaker (STL) – Went from bench player to being a decent leadoff man last year, hitting .300 and pushing 90 runs scored. He does not provide the steals you may expect out of a leadoff man however. Is being tried out at second base this spring, Skip has not played the infield since college. Andrew McCutchen (PIT) – Part of what is going to be some very stiff competition for playing time in the Pittsburgh outfield this year. Andrew should be looked at though after stealing 34 bases in AAA last year. Dexter Fowler (COL) – With Willy Taveras gone, Fowler has a tremendous chance to make it up north with the big club. It's said Fowler has the skill-set and the speed to make it in the show, but may get some more seasoning in AAA to start out – but keeping a bench spot for him may be worth the wait, especially playing in Colorado. Josh Anderson (ATL) – Very small sample size, but has hit .315 in the bigs thus far in just over 200 AB's the last two years. Does not walk, nor strike out too often, could steal 30 bases over the course of a full season. Comes into camp with the inside track to be the Braves center fielder. Scott Hairston (SD) – Had a fantastic July, hitting eight home runs in 63 AB's, and wound up with 17 HR in 326 AB's overall. Hairston smacks more of a nice utility bench player than an everyday bellcow. Nyjer Morgan (PIT) – This former NHL hockey prospect is still plenty fast even without the ice skates on, stealing 44 bases in the minors and reaching base in 25 of his 27 games in a second consecutive September look-see. However Nyjer is age 28 and Andrew McCutchen appears to have more upside. Colby Rasmus (STL) – Did not have a tremendous year in AAA, but is still considered one of the Cards best prospects, and did hit six home runs in 200 AB's. A little more value right now in keeper leagues. Josh Willingham (WSH) – The last time he had any real value was the first year he started in left field in Floria when he was still catching eligible. The recent Adam Dunn acquisition makes Josh odd-man out in DC. Even as a starter, Josh only offers so-so power numbers. Ryan Spilborghs (COL) – Could produce decent power/RBI numbers if he plays full-time, and should get a bigger piece of the action this year. Spilborghs role always seems to be that of a utility man so best case scenario is 400 AB's. Brandon Moss (PIT) – Is said to be the Pirates starting left fielder coming into the year. Showed decent power after coming over in the Jason Bay/Manny Ramirez trade last year, but is coming off off-season knee surgery. Daniel Murphy (NYM) – Hit .308 with 13 HR/14 SB in AA ball before getting a shot in the show late last year. The Mets would like to try him at second base, but he got hurt playing in the Arizona Fall League and is now coming off surgery. Chris Duncan (STL) – Had an injury plagued campaign, and eventually needed upper back/neck surgery. He has to fight his way back for playing time but has a 4-4 game with 5 RBI this spring . Duncan hit 20+ home runs in 2006 and 2007 so he could definitely get back in the mix, also eligible at first base. Steve Pearce (PIT) – Has had a chance to earn a spot in the Pittsburgh lineup before but has not really taken advantage. Had a good final week of 2008 and is now battling Nyjer Morgan and Andrew McCutcheon for coveted playing time. Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – Did OK in a half-season trial in Oakland and comes over in the Matt Holliday trade. His potential and playing for Colorado are plusses, but it's going to take a lot to get into the every day lineup. Matt Diaz (ATL) – Hit .327 and .338 in part-time action in 2006 and 2007 but missed most of last year due to injury. He would mostly see platoon duty against left-handers. Fernando Tatis (NYM) – Came back from being out of the bigs and did very well (.297/11/47) when pressed into service last year. Is more veteran insurance than anything else at this point. Brian Giles (SD) – If he could hit National League pitching half as good as he whacks his girl around, he'd be worth a flyer. The Padres are still on the hook for the final year of his considerable contract, but his declining skills say he should not be a part of your lineup. Austin Kearns (WSH) – The sky seemed to be the limit a few years ago, but maybe that was former GM Jim Bowden's imagination. Kearns is buried deep on the Nationals depth chart now after only hitting .217 last year. Johnny Gomes (CIN) – His batting average in recent seasons in Tampa was horrendous, but he's off to a strong start in Reds camp, could see action against lefties. Nate Schierholtz (SF) – Has hit over .300 in limited action the last two years and also hit .314 in AAA last year. The Giants will work Nate in the outfield as well as first base. Corey Patterson (WSH) – A Jim Bowden non-roster invitee for spring camp this year after just hitting .205 with the Reds last year. With recent seasons of 45 and 37 stolen bases we'll keep Patterson listed on the rolo-dex, just in case. Brian Barton (STL) – Former Loyola-Marymount product steals some bases but not a great hitter or fielder. You might be better interested if in a NASA dynasty league – mission to Mars in 2028 anyboby???