KAC 2007 FANTASY BASEBALL - NL STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS
Chris Carpenter (STL) - The National League may not have a Johan Santana, what it does have however is plenty of options and depth. Carpenter is still the best of that list, although he was not quite what he was in his Cy Young 2005 season. Carpenter had a brief DL stint and ended up winning only 15 games compared to 21 the year befored. Other than that his ERA was up slightly but still much in line with his '05 numbers. 51-18 over the last three years, Carpenter has a niche of getting you a nice stress free complete game in 1:58 flat.
Brandon Webb (AZ) – Despit battling some elbow stiffness late last July, Webb ended up winning the Cy Young award. Dramatically cutting down his walk rate from a few years ago has played a huge part in making Webb an 'A' list starter. Despite specualtion that the pitch put a lot of stress on his elbow, Webb maintains that he will continue to refine his changeup.
Roy Oswalt (HOU) – He only won 15 games last year as opposed to 20 in both 2004 and 2005, but Roy remained outstanding in the other three categories and once again posted a sub-3 ERA. Roy may be one of the smaller pitchers around, but takes a back seat to no one.
Jake Peavy (SD) – May be off some radar screens after going 11-14 along with an elevated ERA for much of the season. Supposedly he was having trouble finding his targets with some outdated contact lenses, although with the stuff he has you'd think he could get away with pitching blindfolded. Has struck out more than one man per inning in each of the last three seasons and had a 2.27 ERA back in the 2004 season. Still just 25, Peavy has as good a shot as anyone of winning the Cy Young.
Carlos Zambrano (CHC) – Unlike teammates Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, Zambrano has been a workehorse and the glue of the Cubs pitching staff in recent seasons. One point of concern was an uptick in free passed allowed which resulted in an elevated WHIP last season. Can be unbeatable on some nights and gets roughed up on other occasions, more maddening is you can't predict when the blowups might occur. Still, with an improved team aournd him, Z should be able to improve on his 15 or so wins from the last couple of years.
John Smoltz (ATL) – Shockingly made the divorce files during the off-season, you can argue at that development alone guaranteeing a Cy Young season. Seriously though, Smoltz remains among the top starters even though he will turn 40 this season. The ERA and WHIP have been climbing slightly in recent years but are still more than acceptable.
Jason Schmidt (LA) – There are still some nights where Schmidt is just unbeatable, but when he's off you can really take a beating. Also don't expect the strikeouts to be what they once were (251 in 20004) The move down the coast in LA should be a wash - Schmidt remains a top-ten NL pitcher.
Ben Sheets (MIL) – Despite a lengthy injury history, Sheets remains high on this list for a couple of reasons. First off he was able to finish last year strong. Secondly, Sheets struck out over a man per inning and allowed only 11 free passes in 106 innings pitched. Sheets had an incredible 10.5 K/BB ratio last year and an 8:1 ratio over an entire season in 2004 - only Greg Maddux and Curt Schilling have been able to approach those ratios in recent seasons. However there were reports of Sheets again having back trouble during the winter. If he ever stays in one piece for the entire season, he could be the class of the NL field.
Chris Young (SD) – In the franchises 38-year history, the Padres have yet to have one of their pitchers record a no-hitter. That record remained intact last season, but you can't fault Young for not trying, as Young and his silly grin seemingly flirted with a no-no several times. There were some other occasions where he did get touched up, a home May start against Atlanta quickly comes to mind. That said, Young averages nearly a strikeout per inning and is coming into the prime of his career at 6'10" 260. A right-handed Big Unit in the making??? Just make sure you are ordering Chris Young the pitcher, and not the Diamondbacks rookie outfielder by the same name.
Matt Cain (SF) – One of the best potential picks out there, cain posted a 3.26/1.18 in the second half last year while holding opponents to a .214 batting average and striking out exactly one man per inning. Despite pitching in tough luck still won 13 games, this should be the the season he puts it together from start to finish. Ranked 64th by CDM with an 840 salary so he will be a good value there.
Chris Capuano (MIL) – The A- or B list of starters basically starts here. Capuano basically became the ace of the Brewers staff the last two years since Ben Sheets is always on the shelf. Pitched in some bad luck with his win total dropping from 18 to 11 last year. Capuano gives up a lot of hits which hurts his ERA/WHIP somewhat, but often gets himself out of trouble with perhaps the best pick-off move in all of Big League ball.
Barry Zito (SF) – As if B*rry wasn't enough for one franchise, the Giants now have forked over $126 million for B$rry. Much as the Giants did in real life, someone in your action/draft is likely to overpay for B$rry's services. In recent year's Zito's strikeout rate has slowly gone down while his walk rate has slowly gone up. But Zito should also benefit by taking the short walk over to the NL which will improve his fantasy value.
Dontrelle Willis (FL) – After a spectacular 2005 season, Dontrelle slipped badly last year, and making the DUI blotter during the off-season raised another red flag. Don't expect 22 wins again, but should do decent in the ERA department while racking up a lot of innings.
Cole Hamels (PHI) – Well, he says he's going to win 20 this season. Is married to a former Playboy model/Survivor contestent, now it's time to see if Hamels will pan out to be anything more than Kris Benson 2.0. Cole put up an impressive strikeout total last year, whiffing well more than a batter an inning. But Hamels has always had injury issues, including once breaking his hand in a bar fight. A 7-4 slate with a 3.39 ERA after the All-Star break last year should make you feel a little better about Hamels going into this campaign.
Brett Myers (PHI) – Seems like he's been around forever, but is still only 26. Has a good strikeout ratio but his ERA/WHIP are a little higher than the top guns out there. Myers also had an off-field issue to contend with during the 2006 season. Suprisingly puts up better numbers at home than on the road. One interesting development is that Brett supposedly told braintrust that he would be interested in closing at some point.
Bronson Arroyo (CIN) – Went from becoming a #3/Boston version of Les Straker to becoming a co-#1 staff ace in Cincinnati last year. Perhaps most impressive was Arroyo posting a 2.60/1.06 at home, although he didget roughed a little more on the road. Arroyo also fared better at night than during the day for some reason. A good example on how a pitcher's fantasy worth can improve with a move to the NL.
Aaron Harang (CIN) – Quick, name those tied for the NL lead in wins last year??? Also name the NL strikeout leader for 2006??? I'm sure Harang wasn't the first name that jumped out but there he was in both categories. Harang does give up home runs and predictably gets cuffed around at home, but don't look at last year's numbers as a fluke.
Dave Bush (MIL) – I'm seeing him ranked a little too high in some pubs, but there's no beating around the Busch, Dave made some tremendous strides last season. Most dramatically was an impressive improvement in strikeouts and a nice 1.14 WHIP. Bush got shelled in a couple starts which resulted in an elevated 4.41 ERA, I would expect that to improve now as well.
Scott Olsen (FL) – Olsen gets a little more love than teammate Anibal Sanchez in these rankings simply because he currently has a little better strikeout rate. The consensus worry about Olsen is that the 187 innings he worked last year by far surpassed his previous professional high - so look for the Marlins to take it easy if he has a twinge. His CDM salary checks in at 750.
Randy Johnson (AZ) – Ah the dwindling few, those still playing in the bigs who are actually older than this writer. Knock off half the San Francisco Giants roster and that list becomes shorter still. You might get scared off with his 5-flat ERA from last year or the fact that he will be out of New York. Also you have to factor in that he is coming off back surgery and also has a bone-on-bone condition in his knee that forces him to inject a lubricant that some consider a steroid-like substance. All of that said, rehab is said to be going well and Johnson feels he will be back on the mound by late-April at the latest. His 2006 WHIP of 1.24 is not exactly the end of the world neither. Don't look for the 16-17 wins from the last three years, but look for strikeouts and a lower ERA.
Roger Clemens (HOU) – As I speak he is probably giving himself a 78.34 percent chance at retiring for good. But we've all seen this game before - Roger will wait a couple months before playing his hand and then getting a nice $9-$10 million for a half-season's worth of work. And considering he had a sparkling 2.30 ERA in 113 innings last year he's definitely earned the right to yet again play the market. Although his status will not be cleared by the time you hold your draft he will almost certainly go in most, if not all leagues. The only difference between this year and last is that I say there's a better chance Clemens will go the Red Sox or Yankees route this time around.
Anibal Sanchez (FL) - The Venezuelan international got some rare Florida pub after a late-season no-hitter, and finished the year with an ERA south of three and a 5-1 September record. Hits 95 on the gun but will have to be handled carefully after throwing 200 pro innings in 2006. Will probably end up getting drafted ahead of teammate Scott Olsen in most drafts.
Kerry Wood (CHC) – A couple years back Steve Stone suggested that if Wood didn't get his act together he could take his considerable income and open a car dealership. Actually, Kerry has been like a trip to the used car lot over his career, looks great on the lot, the only question being would it break down on the second or third day you own it. Wood is one of the wild card among National League starters, as he could very well become the Cubs closer and potentially one of the better RP options around. Trying to solve a perennial problem of listed starters winding up as closers, CDM listed Wood as a relief pitcher with a salary of 800 this year. Keep in mind that Wood is coming off a partially-torn rotor-cuff, any further problems could lead to surgery that would take Wood completely off the baseball radar.
Adam Wainwright (STL) – The Jonathan Papelbon of the NL field, the 2006 World Series hero is slated to open the year in the Cards rotation provided Jason Isringhausen is healthy. Pitched three scoreless racks in his pre-season debut so the Cards are definitely stretching him out. CDM has him listed as a starter as well, going at 800.
Brad Penny (LA) – Reaching into the upper 90's, 1 cent definitely passes the scout test - but was a disaster in the second half of last season recording a 6.25 ERA while the league hit a hefty .317 off him. One Cent still has potential and a good park to pitch in, but I smell a DL stint at some point this year.
Freddy Garcia (PHI) – Hopefully, Freddy isn't telling the Philadelphia scribes about how he's in a much more positive clubhouse these days, even if it's true. Ozzie Guillen reads this type of stuff. Although he racked up a good number of wins in recent years, Freddy's strikeout ratio has dropped and he's been cuffed around the last couple years. Moving to the NL may help, but could be offset by pitching in another bandbox.
John Patterson (WSH) – Back on the bump this spring after undergoing surgery to repair a nerve irritation last July. You may remember his 2005 season, where he only one nine times in 31 starts but otherwise recorded a nice 3.13/1.19 along with 185 K's in 198 IP. Also averaged a strikeout per inning in some limited duty with the Expos the year before that. There's a long injury history, but also some great upside who fly under the radar on draft day.
Mark Prior (CHC) – Only starts the year ranked this highly because he appearantly starts the spring healthy for the first time since 2003. More disturbing was that when Prior did pitch last year, he was roughed around considerably. Prior has the tools and should be in the very prime of his career, he will either (a) finally provide huge dividends or (b) let you down yet again - monitor his spring performance more carefully than anyone.
Derek Lowe (LA) – You may hear more about his romantic life with a former Dodger TV Network reporter than his pitching prowness - but Lowe is not a bad #3 pitcher for your or anyone's staff. Lowe racked up an NL-league tying 16 winds last year along with a decent 3.60 ERA the last two seasons and pitching in Dodger Stadium does not hurt him neither. Don't look for strikeouts, as inducing ground balls are Lowe's game.
Tom Glavine (NYM) – Veteran gives up more than his share of hits, but still provides innings and a solid ERA under four along with a decent, but not great strikeout ratio. Glavine sounds like he wants to close his career with a solid season, while hopefully leading the Mets to a pennant and perhaps World Championship. Could really be worth a look in playoff leagues.
Ted Lilly (CHC) – Has been remembered for a couple things over the past year or so. The first was a scuffle with Blue Jays manager John Gibbons which would had probably been better served occuring at center ice at the Air Canada Center on a Saturday night. The second was Cubs GM Jim Hendry, hooked up to EKG machines and all, closing a deal for Lilly right from a Florida ER room during the winter meetings. Lilly recent history suggest racking up a lot of innings and recording a lot of decisions, but also a hefty ERA. 160 strikeouts in 181 innings pitched last year was a nice total.
Chuck James (ATL) – Left-handers had a good strikeout total in his first extended action as a big-league starter, but is not known to have overpowering stuff. His ERA/WHIP should remain decent pitching in the A-T-L. Could also be eligible as a RP in some leagues.
John Maine (NYM) – Had a great late-season run, but keep in mind there wasn't a lot of pressure since the Mets had all the clinched the NL's best record. Look at as a decent, but not great prospect in the Orioles organization, Maine provides decent strikeouts and shouldn't head too far south as the #4 pitcher in New York's rotation.
Greg Maddux (SD) – Still very much relevant in the fantasy game, especially after recording a 3.30/1.09 in two month worth of action with the Dodgers. Maddux stays on the West Coast, only this time with the Padres - so I still expect solid stats from the 40 year old although his strikeout totals have taken a hit.
Rich Hill (CHC) – After compiling some fantastic numbers in Triple-A (135 K's in 100 IP), Hill didn't do too bad in the show while keeping up a nice strikeout-per-inning pace. Hill still has work to do to secure a starting spot this spring, but could have a real breakthtrough. Has a nice salary of 510 in CDM.
Homer Bailey (CIN) – I really get leary of pitchers named Homer, especially pitchers named Homer whose home park is to be in Cincinnati. That said, Bailey opens the year as the National League's best prospect - thrown in his mullet and upper 90's fastball and the hype starts to go off the charts. Don't be surprised if Homer does not make the trip north and start off in AAA, but will be in the show for good sooner rather than later in 2007.
Ian Snell (PIT) – Winning 14 games with the lowly Pirates have to be worth some sort of award - that's what Snell piled up in 2006, along with 169 punchouts in 186 IP. His ERA/WHIP numbers (4.74/1.46) could use improvement though, but there is upside.
Jeff Francis (COL) – A Canadian All-Star, as well as top draft pick a few years back, Francis could eventually go down as the most relevent Colorado starting pitcher in franchise history. As with all Rockies pitchers, you immediately look at his home/road splits, which in Francis' case was virtually the same, with an ERA in the low-4's and a WHIP in the upper 1.2's. At age 26, everything should come together this year.
Orlando Hernandez (NYM) – Turned things around after returning to New York during the season, and ended up averaging just over a strikeout per inning. El Duque is battling some physical issues in camp and is way too off-and-on to give serious consideration to.
Tom Gorzelanny (PIT) – Had some elbow issues early on, but Gorzelanny dominated at the AAA level before making a very good impression at the big league level. Gorzellanny declares his elbow a 'non-issue' and remains being counted on as one of the building blocks the Pirates hope to lean on.
Jeff Suppan (MIL) – World Series hero parlayed his post-season success into a $42 million contract with the Brewers. As it was Suppan's stats weren't overwhelming, he did get a healthy dose of wins, but was merely average in the ERA/WHIP categories and is not a strikeout specialist. Suppan will no longer be pitching against the Brewers (12-2/3.27 ERA lifetime) but will now be facing the Cardinals. Suppan is durable but shouldn't be looked at for any more but a late-round fill-in.
Pedro Martinez (NYM) – After a number of mysterious injury reports coming out of the Mets, full disclosure finally came out and was finally diagnosed with a rotator cuff tear. The best hope is that Pedro will be ready for duty sometime in July or August - but even then vintage Pedro performances should probably not be expected. The type of player who will be selected well before they should in most drafts.
Jon Lieber (PHI) – Surprisingly, the former Cub/Pirate is now 37 years old. A 17-game winner a couple years back, Lieber takes a beating in ERA but his WHIP is usually not horrible. He is who he is at this point.
Claudio Vargas (MIL) – The hope is that getting away from Arizona and getting with pitching coach Mike Maddux will do wonders this year. Vargas was a decent 4.12/1.22 away from Arizona last year.
Clay Hensley (SD) – His ERA was 4.57 in the first half last year, 2.66 after the All-Star break. However his WHIP remained in the vicinity of 1.33. Hensley does have the best pitchers park in all of baseball to his advantage, and has some (but not a lot) of upside.
Matt Morris (SF) – An 'A' list starter a few years back, Morris is a far cry from that these days, as his ERA now approaches five. Furthermore his strikeout total has gone away although his WHIP is still in the respectable 1.3 range. What can be said about Morris joining the Giants is that he will be a considerable upgrade over Jamie Wright.
Anthony Reyes (STL) – Got cuffed around a bit in a half-season worth's of starts, but 72 strikeouts in 85 IP shows the potential. With Jeff Suppan gone, Reyes looks good as the Cards #3 starter this season.
Randy Wolf (LA) – Got back on the bump after undergoing Tommy John surgery late last season and showed enough to earn a 1 year/$7.5 million contract. Wolf struck out 44 in 56+ innings last year, pitchers often end up showing more velocity after Tommy John surgery. Working with the motivation of a big-money multi-year contract done the road, Wolf will come into this season as hungry as one.
Noah Lowry (SF) – You see all the hype Matt Cain is getting now??? That was actually Noah the last two years or so. However Lowry's production fell off a cliff in 2006, after strikeing out 172 in just over 200 innings in '05, Lowry went down to 84 in 159 last year, and didn't exactly finish with a bang, posting a 10.72 ERA in five September starts. Not even an ark can get you out of that mess.
Jason Jennings (HOU) – After posting more than respectable numbers in Coors Field last year, Jennings now lands in Houston which is not too much better a pitcher's park. 2007 is a contract year for Jennings, so he should be extra motivated.
Livan Hernandez (AZ) – Bump him up several spots if you are in a league that awards those who rack up a lot of innings and wins. That said, Livan also racks up a lot of losses. A better bet in a game such as CDM's point game as opposed to a roto-game. That said Livan is at least dependable.
Zach Duke (PIT) – Hopefully you were not one of the many who overpaid for Zach at this time last year. Duke started the year on the wrong foot and ultimately gave up a MLB-high 255 hits. The combination of being a Pirate plus not being a strikeout pitcher limits Zach's upside.
Doug Davis (AZ) – How's this for consistency, Davis has been 12-12, 11-11, and 11-11 over the last three years. In Milwaukee that almost merits a future spot in the Brewers Walk of Fame. Speaking of walks, Davis provided many of those as both his ERA and WHIP took a hike last year. Those totals could take a further hike in the desert.
Jamie Moyer (PHI) – At age 44, Jamie is not only still pitching, but still pitching well while racking up over 200 innings per year. Strikeouts are not an asset, but Moyer usually ends up check in the low 4's/low 1.3's.
David Wells (SD) – One of the true two-sport stars on the planet, I was totally expecting Wells to retire following the 2006 season. In fact I would have ranked Wells much higher in fantasy poker rankings than fantasy baseball. But after being thrown a contract that could be worth up to $7 million, Wells has decided to stick around for one more hand in the majors. Playing back at home, Wells could still produce some numbers as long as he doesn't fall off his bar stool again. Stick around another 2-3 years and Wells may even outlast Doyle Brunson.
