'THE EDGE' (COMING SOON!!) |
Tim Lincecum (SF) – The worst thing to happen to Tim during the 2008 season?? Getting sick the day of the All-Star game. Other than that the #10 overall pick of the 2006 Amateur draft has been everything as advertised and then some. Among other mind boggling stats, Lincecum struck out 265 in 227 IP. Tim won 18 games despite the non-support of an offensively challenged Giants offense. Pitching in one of the major's best hitters parks, the sky is the limit for Lincecum – especially look out when he takes his Opening Day assignment at home against Milwaukee.
Johan Santana (NYM) – His first season in the National League was not a disappointment, his ERA lowered from 3.33 to 2.53, although his strikeout total dipped a bit. The bigger stir is Santana being sidelined this spring due to some elbow trouble, and is questionable for Opening Day. Santana should still be at his prime at age 29, but I can also see him slipping a bit this year.
Brandon Webb (AZ) – You can't quibble with a pitcher who has been top-TWO in the Cy Young balloting for three straight seasons, can you?? Webb won a MLB leading 22 games last year, although his WHIP was a little high for his lofty status at 1.20. Webb seems slightly high-maintenance, but still very much amongst the top starters.
Cole Hamels (PHI) – The only red flag on drafting Hamels this year is his injury history (and now a sore arm in camp) and a hangover after logging a ton of innings culminating with the Phillies World Championship. Hamels also only won 14 games last year and didn't strikeout nearly as many batters as Tim Lincecum. Still, Hamels has developed quickly into one of the top left-handers in the game. 
Jake Peavy (SD) – After an aborted trade to the Chicago Cubs and a shelling in the World Baseball Classic, I've lowered my expectations for Peavy for the coming season, as Jake has become frustrated pitching for a losing team, feeling that he has to pitch a shutout every time he takes the hill. Elbow and shoulder woes are also starting to get to him and causing him to miss time. When Peavy was on the mound last year, his stats were plenty fine, a 2.85 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. Dan Haren (AZ) – The only knock on Haren is that he still can't seem to get over the 15 win hump, even after leaving Oakland. Haren's first year in the NL was as good as was expected, as Haren got over the 200 strikeout plateau.
Rich Harden (CHC) – Easily capable of winning the National League Cy Young. After arriving in a mid-season trade to answer Milwaukee's acquisition of CC Sabathia, Harden struck out 89 in 71 IP, went 5-1, and held opposing hitters to a .157 batting average. Unfortunately with Harden it's never a matter of if he will get hurt but when. If you like throwing the bones, Harden's peripherals are as potentially strong as anyone's.
Chad Billingsly (LA) – Can very easily make it to the top of this list this year after striking out 200 in as many innings pitched last year. A high walk total as well as a broken leg suffered in an off-season accident are of some concern heading into the season. 
Roy Oswalt (HOU) – Every year people have Oswalt on the injury watch list, but he keeps churning out the 200+ IP with a quality record and ERA. Some thought Oswalt had lost something over the first quarter of 2008, where he had a 5.61 ERA. The final numbers however (17-10, 3.54/1,18) were pretty much along the lines of his recent norms.
Ricky Nolasco (FL) – Over the last two-thirds of '08, you could stack up the numbers of this emerging ace right along anyone not names CC Sabathia, as Nolasco averaged a strikeout per inning from that point onward along with a sub-3 ERA. An excellent bonus, Nolasco has the control, walking only 42 in 212 IP for the season. Another year like this and the Marlins will definitely not be able to afford Nolasco any longer. 
Javier Vazquez (ATL) – His ERA's have taken a hit over his career, and especially in recent years on the South Side, finishing at 4.67 last year. You cannot blame Comiskey Park for all of his woes, the ERA was a hefty 5.10 on the road. But Vazquez has one of the better strikeout totals around, and the move to the Braves and the National League should help his value somewhat. Carlos Zambrano (CHC) – Sure, he had that September no-hitter against a distracted Astros team, but the one word to describe the rest of that month might be fiasco. Outside of that game Z game up 16 runs in just 11 1/3 IP and Zambrano had a 5.80 ERA after the All-Star break. Z has seen his ERA approach 4 in recent years while walking over 100 batters a couple times. Zambrano is still listed as being only 27 years old, but he's looking much older than that. Consider him high-maintenance at this point. 
Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – May 1 was the low point of the Milwaukee Brewers season as Gallardo's knee buckled at an awkward angle while trying to make a play at first base. Although Yo was able to finish that inning, further tests the next day revealed a torn ACL – but miraculously Gallardo was able to return before the end of the season, helping the Brewers get into the playoffs. Gallardo now has a tall task ahead of him as he will suddenly be counted on as Milwaukee's staff ace. But be aware that Gallardo also sustained an injury to his other knee in Spring Training last year. Sure they're not arm injuries – but those types of things can lead to arm trouble later on. Ryan Dempster (CHC) – I was not buying into Dempster in his transition from closer (where he was shaky) to starter last year. But Dempster ended up with a career year, winning 17 games with an ERA slightly under three. Dempster walks his share of batters, so I would expect the ERA to go up although he should win at least 15 games if healthy. Chris Young (SD) – In their 40-year history, no San Diego Padre pitcher has ever pitched a no-hitter, but Young has one hell of a chance to become the first. Young had a perfect game going into the eighth inning in one late-season start in Milwaukee, a rare bright spot on the road in a season which saw Young carry a 5.23 ERA on the road as opposed to 2.35 at home. Young's season was also marred by missing two months after taking an Albert Pujols liner off his face. As dominant as Young is at times, he's also just as capable of getting bombed early, which hurts his ranking here.
Edinson Volquez (CIN) – Many owners who did their homework and drafted Edinson in the later rounds last year were richly rewarded with a 17 win season, although the workload caught up to Volquez later on in the season. Volquez struck out slightly more than one man per inning last year, but walked 93 batters in the process. Matt Cain (SF) – Could easily sue his own offense over the events of the last two years – let's just say Cain may be one of the best pitchers ever to lose 30 of his last 45 decisions. However some fault lies with Cain as he has walked 87, 79, and 91 batters the last three years. Lower that total some and Cain could take his place as an All-Star caliber pitcher, at age 24 there is plenty of time to take the next level. Max Scherzer (AZ) – The official company line out of AZ is that Scherzer is the front-runner to be the D-Backs fifth starter this year. Don't buy that – Scherzer has the potential to be so much more. Between AAA and the show Max struck out 145 in 109 innings pitched. This will be a situation where the team will closely monitor his innings (don't expect any more than 180 IP) but don't sleep on Max on draft day – he's got a very high celing. Aaron Harang (CIN) – One of the un-sung workhorses in the game, Harang racked up 230+ plus in 2006-07 before an injury-riddled campaign ended with a 6-17 record and an ERA approaching five. Ted Lilly (CHC) – His ERA has not gone done much since moving to the National League, but his WHIP has – and Lilly has won 47 games over the last three years, and double-figure wins in each of his last six campaigns. Reliability and a strong offense behind him and the biggest selling points for this 33 year-old. Derek Lowe (ATL) – Is coming off one of his better season's (3.24/1.13 WHIP) and while he's not in Dodger Stadium anymore, the A-T-L is not a bad pitcher's park neither. Doesn't get eye-popping strikeout totals but is good for a reliable 200 IP. Brett Myers (PHI) – The final numbers were not impressive, 10-13 with a 4.55 ERA – at first glance you might think that it was at home at Citizens Bank Park where Myers got roughed up. That wasn't the case at all, it was on the road where Myers needed a bailout with a 6.21/1.61/.301 opposing batting average. At home Myers was just fine at .01/1.17/.235. With Myers in his walk year pitching for the defending World Champions, Myers has a good chance to surpass his previous high-water mark in wins, which stands at 14. Clayton Kershaw (LA) – When none other than Vin Scully refers to someone's curveball as 'Public Enemy #1', it better get your attention. He should do well in his first full year in the rotation but keep in mind he is still only 21, it will take a couple more years for Clayton to become a finished product. Randy Johnson (SF) – It was assumed a few years ago that MLB had seen it's last 300-game winner for a while, in part because few saw a way that Randy Johnson could keep things going into his mid-40's. Still, here Johnson is, coming off a pretty solid season that saw him log 180 innings with an ERA under four, and still being good for nearly a strikeout per inning. Now moving to San Francisco, Johnson should keep going as a #4 starter in a great pitchers park, and should easily get the five wins required to join the 300-win club. Johnny Cueto (CIN) – He looked like the real deal in his first few starts in April, but in the long run Johnny got roughed up en route to going 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA in his rookie campaign. Cueto did strike out nearly a man per innings, so there is ample opportunity to blossom. 
Adam Wainwright (STL) – Will tend to fly under the radar, but Wainwright's numbers were just fine when healthy last year, a 11-3 record along with a 3.20/1.18. The strikeout ratio is good but not great. I wouldn't expect too much better than that but a solid mid-tier type guy. Josh Johnson (FL) – Proved late last year that he was indeed back from Tommy John surgery, going 7-1 and striking out nearly a man per inning over the last two months of the season. It is possible that he could approach his 2006 numbers (12-7, 3.10). The biggest hurdle will be proving he can last for an entire season. Oliver Perez (NYM) – Over this decade Oliver has been fantastic, Oliver has been awful, and most recently Oliver has been in between. Perez is a pretty good strikeout pitcher, with 174 and 180 K's over the past two seasons, and has been 25-17 in his last two years with the Mets – but his high walk total (105 last year) is a drawback. Manny Parra (MIL) – Was not really that impressive in his first full season, as his WHIP was a sky-high 1.54. But Parra showed some potential with 147 strikeouts in his 166 IP. An increased responsibility is going to fall on Parra this year after some of the Brewers' pitching departures in the off-season. John Maine (NYM) – Is not very consistent, but the full body of work is not bad – Maine has been 25-18 the last two years with an ERA/WHIP hovering around the 4.00/1.30 area. Also carries a very good strikeout total. 
Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – We usually do not rank Rockies starters until near the end of this list. But Ubaldo did his best work at home last year, recording a 3.31 ERA/1.23 WHIP at home last year, and Jimenez also recorded 172 K's along the way. I would still be leary of drafting Rockies pitchers, but Ubaldo is possibly turning into one of Colorado's better pitchers in quite a while. Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) – Improved from being a #4 type to a solid #2 last year with a 3.54 ERA and nealy averaging 9 K's per 9 IP. Wandy has not been able to stay healthy however, falling below 150 IP in two of the last three innings. Wandy also improved markedly pitching on the road, a sore spot during the 2007 season. Chris Carpenter (STL) – One of the wild cards out of the NL fleet this season – Carpenter has missed nearly all of the last two seasons after Tommy John surgery. But Carpenter has looked great this spring, recording only four hits in 8 IP. Back in 2005, Carpenter was one of the best in the game win he was a 21-game winner. Hiroki Kuroda (LA) – As expected was decent but not spectacular in his first season in the states. Kuroda is not a big strikeout guy, but only walked 42 in 183 innings pitched. Kuroda is your typical #3 or #4 pitcher who won't kill you. Jonathan Sanchez (SF) – Sanchez has shown some potential, particularly with strikeouts over the last couple of years. But Sanchez has been cuffed around, and his ERA approached eight in the second half of last year. If Sanchez can improve his control, he could do very well as SF's #4 starter. Kenshin Kawakami (ATL) – Similar to Hiroki Kuroda, Kawakami signed a 3-year/$23 million contract with the A-T-L in the off-season. Kawakami won 112 games over 11 seasons in Japan with a 3.22 ERA, and was MVP of his league in 2004. Kenshin does not have an exceptional fastball and projects as a #3/#4 type starter. Jair Jurrjens (ATL) – All in all, Jurrjens first full season as a starter was a great success, winning 13 games with a 3.68 ERA. Jair's strongest asset is that he allows very few home run balls and induces a lot of grounders. Mike Pelfrey (NYM) – Took on a full load for the first time last year and did pretty well, winning 13 games in 200 IP. Pelfrey relies on a sinker that induces ground balls, but not a lot of strikeouts. Kyle Lohse (STL) – Parlayed a career year that saw Lohse go 15-6 into a 4 year/$41 million contract with the Cards. Lohse has excellent control and doesn't give up many long balls, but outside of last year his previous results have never been extraordinary. Tommy Hanson (ATL) – A future star, Hanson has lit it up during the spring. Very well worth drafting, but keep in mind he will get some work at AAA before he gets his call-up. Bronson Arroyo (CIN) – Here's a good pitcher to target in a trade somewhere around mid-season – the last three years Arroyo has sported ERA's of 2.99, 3.55, and 3.47 after the All-Star break. However Arroyo has been 4.84 and 5.97 the last two years before the break. Arroyo also struggled mightily on the road last year, where opponents hit a cool .313 off him last year. 
Paul Maholm (PIT) – Being the 'ace' of the Pirates staff isn't usually worth much more than a bus token, but Maholm emerged during the 2008 season, especially in the second half with a 3.40 ERA, albeit it only with three wins to go along with it. Look elsewhere if seeking wins, but Maholm should help in ERA, WHIP, and some K's. Chris Volstad (FL) – Was brought out of the AA ranks for a spot-start last July, but wound up as a fixture in the rotation the rest of the way, recording an excellent 2.88 ERA in 84 IP. Volstad is an imposing fixutre at 6'8”, but is not a strong strikeout man. Volstad should do decent, but remember he is still just 22 and should regress a bit as the National Leauge gets a second look at him.
Scott Olsen (WSH) – Was traded by the Marlins over the winter after a few years of diminishing returns, including his strikeout rate going in the wrong direction. Olsen gets bitten by the home run ball a lot, giving up 82 long balls the past three years. Dave Bush (MIL) – You could make like former manager Ned Yost and choose just to put Bush in your lineup when the team is at home, where he was 3.50/1.06 last year. The bigger problem, whether it was away or home, is that Bush never seems able to stay in the game long enough to be able to earn the 'W'. Todd Wellemeyer (STL) – Great waiver wire pick-up early last year, as the converted reliever ended up winning 13 games with a 3.71 ERA. I wouldn't expect numbers quite that good the second time around. Randy Wolf (LA) – A pretty good strikeout man, Wolf has taken his lumps in the ERA department but did win 12 games splitting his time between the Padres and Astros. Now Wolf is back with the Dodgers, where he went 9-6 in just over 100 IP in 2007. 
Perdo Martinez (FA) – The Domincan Republic's brief stay in the World Baseball Classic was a disaster, but scouts came away impressed with Pedro and some renewed velocity after his two appearances. Pedro has hinted wanting to sign with a NL team, with the Dodgers being one of the possible landing spots. Don't expect the dominating Pedro of a decade ago, in fact he is now being projected as a possible set-up man, which would be a much different role for Pedro. John Lannan (WSH) – Perhaps the best starter the Nationals have, unfortunately that is not likely to result in many wins. Lannan was a mainstay in the DC rotation last year, losing 15 games despite sporting an ERA just under four. Jon Garland (AZ) – Has been very durable for most of this decade, logging at least 32 starts each year since 2002, recording double-digit wins in each of those seasons. But Garland's ERA is often in the 4.50 range and gives up plenty of long balls. Expect more of the same moving from the White Sox to the D-Backs, plenty of wins while giving up his share of runs. Sean Marshall (CHC) – Fifth starter position is his to lose coming into this season, although the Cubs schedule dictates that a fifth starter will not be needed until late April. If all goes well, Marshall should be good for some wins as well as strikeouts. Aaron Cook (COL) – Coming off a career year winning 16 games with an ERA under four. Cook doesn't strike out many, but pitches well to contact and doesn't rack up high pitch counts. But Cook gives up plenty of hits, including 236 last year and 242 in 2006. Add in the fact that the Rockies do not figure to be that good and Cook's win total is bound to take a fall. Jamie Moyer (PHI) – Forget the fact that he is now 46 years old, Moyer won 16 games with a very respectable 3.71 ERA last year. The obvious fact however is that Moyer is bound to fall statistically in both areas this year. You are probably better off taking a big swing at some younger guys with upside potential later on in drafts. Ian Snell (PIT) – Has survived three years in the Pirates rotation with so-so success, but walked 89 in 164 innings last year. Doug Davis (AZ) – Has been amazingly consistent in recent years, recording records of 12-12, 11-11, 11-11, and 13-12 with a decent ERA and giving up a lot of hits. Davis is battling some arm issues this year in camp, which further reduces his value. Joe Blanton (PHI) – Did win 30 games over 2006-07, but gave up a ton of hits in the process. And that was pitching for Oakland as opposed to the bandbox he will be pitching in now in Philadelphia. Blanton could obviously be still good for some wins if he isn't booed out of town first. Jorge Campillo (ATL) – Was pressed into service last year and did well, compiling a 8-7 record with a 3.91/1.24. But thanks to a total revamping in the Braves rotation, Campillo appears slated to relief duty to at least open this year. Jeff Suppan (MIL) – The good news is that Suppan takes the bump every fifth day, actually, that's the bad news for fantasy owners. Suppan gets hit hard, and gets hit often, and I think even you and I can get a knock off him. All I know is the Brewers give Supp a pretty nice salary. Jason Schmidt (LA) – After being signed to the tune of 3 years/$46 million a few years back, Schmidt has spent most of his time in LA on the disabled list. Schmidt has looked decent in some spring training outings, but figures to open the regular season making some rehab starts down in the minors. Even if everything goes well, don't expect the Schmidt that dominated with the Giants earlier this decade. Anibal Sanchez (FL) – You may remember him being outstanding in a half-season's worth of work back in 2006 (2.83 and a no-hitter in 114 IP) before blowing out his arm. Sanchez has been taking the slow road back, but did strike out 50 in 52 IP last year, could very much be worth a lottery ticket. Braden Looper (MIL) – Picked up by the Brewers late this off-season, Looper is coming off consecutive 12-win seasons and is projected as Milwaukee's fifth starter, However Looper has been on the shelf this spring and could open the year on the DL. Tom Gorzelanny (PIT) – Looked to be the future star of the Pirates rotation after winning 14 games in 2007, but was rocked to a tune of a 6.66 ERA last year, along with six wins and 67 strikeouts. That's way too many sixes for my liking. Ben Sheets (FA) – At least top-15 on this list when he's healthy, which is not often, Sheets blew out his arm in his last days in Milwaukee and will now miss the majority of this season after elbow surgery. Would be better suited in the American League especially considering Sheets' fragile health and the fact that he is a terrible hitting pitcher. Carlos Carrasco (PHI) – Considered the best pitcher in the Phillies farm system, Carrasco will in all likelihood open this season in AAA, but look for him to get a call at some point. Barry Zito (SF) – Nobody needs to tell you how awful B$rry was last year, and early indications from spring camp is this year will not be much better. Only the albatross of that $126 million contract that the Giants are on the hook for five more years keeps Barry in the rotation. Micah Owings (CIN) – Perhaps one of the best hitting pitchers in the history of the game, with a .552 slugging percentage in 116 career AB's - multiply that over the course of a full season and Owings would project at .319/25/105 - too bad hitting stats can't be used for pitchers. Homer Bailey (CIN) – You would love this cats name if he were a position player and not on the mound. Considered one of the Reds prized prospects for a couple years now, Homer and Micah Owings are in a pretty good duel right now to land the #5 spot in the rotation for Cincy. Tom Glavine (ATL) – Signed an incentive laden contract with the Braves this off-season, but has been cuffed around the last two years and is dealing with arm soreness in camp. At age 43 Glavine is near the end of the line. Yusmeiro Petit (AZ) – Got a look in the D-Backs rotation late last year, but the acquisition of Jon Garland likely has him again on the outside looking in. Unless someone goes down Petit is looking at spot duty. Mark Prior (SD) – This story has been very well documented, Prior has not thrown a pitch in a regular season MLB game since 2006. For what it might be worth, Prior says he is farther along than he was this time last year. But I have to see Prior back in the saddle before I believe it at this point.