KAC 2007 FANTASY BASEBALL - RELIEF PITCHER RANKINGS
Joe Nathan (MN) – The last of my ten fantasy rankings is the most fun - just don't spend too high of a pick on a reliever. Brandon Funston takes a lot of heat for never including a RP in his top-50 rankings, but I see his point - where was Takashi Saito and J.J. Putz last year at this time??? Saves are always the most volitile category, almost anyone is just a few categories away from being bounced from their role - or let's put it this way, the setup man is always the most popular guy in town. With all of that said, Nathan goes into this year as the safest bet around after sporting a 1.58 ERA, .79 WHIP, and 95 K's in 68 IP. Nathan's saves did drop from 43 to 36, but some of that was a product of the complete games pitched between Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano.
Francisco Rodriguez (ANG) - – Has saved 92 games over the last two years while still striking out over 12 men per nine innings. Was more consistent while lowering his ERA to 1.67.
B.J. Ryan (TOR) – Considering that effective closers are often found on the scrap heap, many thought that the Blue Jays were spending their money in the wrong place in acquiring Ryan to a big money contract last year. But Ryan turned out to be well worth the investment while posting a 1.37/.86. Despite escaping Baltimore, Ryan's saves only improved from 36 to 38, part of that was Roy Halladay's penchant for pitching complete games.
Mariano Rivera (NYY) – Quite possibly the greatest closer of all-time, Mariano is probably ranked lower than at any point in the last decade, and even being at #4 is not that terrible. Rivera's strikeouts have dropped considerably over the last two years, as well as his savees, from 53 to 34. Rivera still has a solid ERA under two for a sure-fire team to make the playoffs as the Yankees have for the last decade-plus. Rivera has as much, if not more job security than any other closer in baseball.
Billy Wagner (NYM) – When his name appearred among the finalists for MLB's last man balloting for the All-Star Game, many Met fans wondered if Wagner was still qualified to pitch the ninth inning, let alone participate in the Mid-Summer Classic. But look at the final numbers, 94 K's in 72 innings, solid ERA and a decent WHIP, albeit up from recent years. But throw in closing for the NL's best teams and you should be looking at 40 saves from the veteran once again.
Huston Street (OAK) – There is enough going on under the hood to keep Huston from being in my top-five closers. A groin here, an pec muscle there, a hammy somewhere else - nothing totally debilitating but something to keep him out of the lineup without notice for a week at a time. Throw in a 3.31 ERA and you have someone who can be had from time to time, and did blow 11 saves opps last year. Street is still just a couple years removed from the University of Texas and remains one of the top young closers in the game, but has risk.
J.J. Putz (SEA) – Here is one reason against drafting closers early, as Putz was a free agent in many leagues early on in the season. Putz had elite-level stats after taking over for Eddie Guardado, averaging 12 K's per nine innings along with a 2.30/.92. Sub-.500 team is the biggest thing working against J.J. at this point.
Trevor Hoffman (SD) – If Mariano Rivera is the best closer of all time, then TH51 is not far behind, and Hell's Bells has been ringing in Diego for a decade now. If you're looking for an eye-popping total of strikeouts Trevor's not your man, but even at age 39 you have to be impressed with 41, 43, and 46 saves over the last three years.
Takashi Saito (LA) – This is a typical story of the rise and fall of a fantasy closer, which often happens in the blink of an eye. The Japanese 'rookie' began last year not only behind Eric Gagne, but also behind Danys Baez who was brought in as insurance. Gagne got hurt, Daeys bombed, and Saito was a revelation striking out 107 in 78 inning pitched. I would have Saito ranked higher except for one reason, Saito is 37 and Jonathan Broxton is considered the closer of the future, which may come as soon as this year with Saito possibly returning to a setup role.
Brad Lidge (HOU) – At this time last year, I said not to worry about Lidge's 2005 postseason misadventures. Well it turned out that the end of 2005 indeed had a lasting effect - as Lidge became a bit of a mini Derrick Turnbow and was actually removed from the closers role at one point. So far this spring, Lidge has been similarly inconsistent, great one outing and very shaky in the other. What is not in doubt is that Lidge still has great stuff, 104 K's in 75 IP last year.
Jose Valverde (AZ) – Another one who has had his blowups, but is also very capable of being a top-five closer. Valverde started last year closing 14 straight without incident, then blew up to the extent that he was sent to AAA before reclaiming the closers role and having a successful September. As is the case with Lidge, I think Valverde is still very much worth the roll of the dice.
Chris Ray (BAL) – Was very solid and very steady in his first year in the closers role, saving 33 of 38 games. Only problems are Ray doesn't do very good in the strikeout department and save opps in Baltimore are sometimes few and very far between. Ray is one of the lower-risks options out there however.
Chad Cordero (WSH) – Very similar makeup to Ray, still relatively young, mostly unspectacular, just gets the job done - but is stuck on a bad team in the same general region of the country. Although his ERA rose from 1.82/.97 to 3.19/1.10, the drop from 47 to 29 saves can be attributed mainly from the team no longer being able to take 1-run leads into the ninth.
Brian Fuentes (COL) – Look past the fact that he's in Colorado and you really have a pretty solid reliever. Fuentes strikes out well more than a man per inning and his ERA/WHIP is in the acceptable range. But will the team around him allow Fuentes to exceed the 30-save plateau??? You do have the knowledge that he's handled to job well for two years running.
Jon Papelbon (BOS) – I will rank Jon in exactly the same position I did as a starter, if you like getting starters stats form a RP position Jon should be acceptable this year.
Francisco Cordero (MIL) – Kind of a 21st century version of former Orioles closer Dan Stanhouse, in the end he usually gets the job done - but will make you very nervous in the process. Be ready to stomach some slightly elevated WHIP totals if you have Cocoa on your roster.
Tom Gordon (PHI) – He just might have one of his nine lives still left. But the cold truth is Flash's ERA/WHIP are in steady decline although he still strikesout more than a man per inning. Current starter Brett Myers is among those already angling to succeed Gordon as Phillies closer.
Adam Wainwright (STL) – Pretty much in the same boat as Papelbon making the transition to starter. Adam's numbers as a reliever last year were pretty solid, and he should fare pretty well in the middle of the Cardinals rotation, and is a candidate for 15+ wins.
Akinori Otsuka (TX) – Sure, the Rangers signed Eric Gagne - but he's been out for two years, and is just now getting to the point of throwing off a mound. Otsuka is a know quantity and is coming off an outstanding season, saving 32 of 36 games. Otsuka should get you through the first part of the season, use Gagne has a handcuff if anything.
Bobby Jenks (CWS) – I know you will see him rated much higher in other publications, but there are some vibes I don't like here. Jenks was shaky at the end of last year battling a sore hip, and now he's battling a sore shoulder in camp. At any moment Ozzie Guillen might just tell him to mix in a salad and keep him on the bench. I give you top-ten if healthy, but there are definite red flags.
Jason Isringhausen (STL) – Seemingly hurt every year, Isringhausen was even shaky when healthy last year. However Issy is still the closer for a winning team, and is schduled to make his spring debut by Mid-March - your expectations should be limited however.
Joe Borowski (CLE) – All the guesswork on who Cleveland's closer will be was solved when Keith Foulke abruptly retired on the first day in camp - and in the words of the team's GM, Borowski is indeed the Cleveland closer. On the surface that would seem sound, as Joe did save 36 games for the Marlins last year, but there are other bullpen options with the Tribe, and Borowski is not bulletproof. The team could definitely chance course during the season.
Todd Jones (DET) – On the surface, the closer for the defending AL champions does not sound like a bad option. Problem is Jones is unlikely to make it through the season holding off both Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney. If you draft Jones, stay a step ahead and check out other options on the FA market, or handcuff Zumaya.
Bob Wickman (ATL) – Has kind of become the Jake Plummer of closers. Whether it be in Milwaukee, Cleveland, or now Atlanta, Wickman does his job, but there's always someone younger waiting in the wings to take over. Your best hope here is that Wickman does well in the first half, then gets dealt to yet another team who needs a veteran closer.
Armando Benitez (SF) – Once upon a time, Mando was a top closer, but has been hobbled by injuries so much in recent years that you can no longer really gauge how much effectiveness is left in the tank.
Ryan Dempster (CHC) – To be honest, I don't know how Dumpster has made it through two years as Cubs closer. No doubt I don't see Lou Pinella going through the anxiety like Dusty Baker did. I have a feeling Kerry Wood could be closing sooner rather than later.
Octavio Dotel (KC) – The good news is that Dotel is now the Royals closer. The bad new is that Dotel is now the Royals closer. Not long ago Dotel was an elite closer, racking up 122 K's in 85 innings in 2004. We will get a good read on how the post-surgery Dotel will fare this year.
Joel Zumaya (DET) – If you told me right now that Zumaya would be the Tigers closer from Day 1, I might be inclined to draft him top-five. I say chances of Zumaya overtaking Todd Jones at some point as better than 50-50, but another scenario would be Fernando Rodney becoming closer with Zumaya still a setup man. What is not in question is Zumaya's stuff is as electric (and I don't mean his guitar) as anyone in baseball.
Kerry Wood (CHC) – You've probably heard of him, and you probably need no introduction to his velocity, his wildness, or his lack of health. It's said that K-Wood has lost some weight in the off-season and actually looks good in camp. His shot at being a closer only seems to be a matter of time.
Jonathan Broxton (LA) – Here's all you need to know about Broxton, 97 K's in 76 innings last year and just 22 years old. Definitely keep an eye on his progress this year, he could very easily be top-ten at this time next year.
Taylor Tankersley (TB) – Rookie is slated as the Marlins closer, but there is a couple of qualifiers. First Taylor skipped AAA on the way to Florida, and is also battling shoulder inflammation. I think other options will come into play in the Marlins bully.
Todd Coffey (CIN) – Think of the Reds co-closer as kind of a latter-day John Rocker, hopefully that scares you enough right there. Unspectacular veterans Mike Stanton as well as David Weathers are also options.
Joel Pineiro (BOS) – You would think a Red Sox closer would rank much higher on these rankings, however Pineiro is one of just many candidates, including 89-year old Mike Timlin, who could close in Fenway. Wait until later on this spring to see how this situation plays out.
Eric Gagne (TX) – Once the kingpin among closers, Gagne still faces a long road back in Texas. Even if he does make it back as closer, Gagne will be in a far-less favorable park for pitchers. Until I see him get back on the horse, I can only recommend him as little more than a handcuff for Akinori Otsuka.
Justin Duchscherer (OAK) – On the numerous occasions that Huston Street has been dinged, Duchscherer has been able to do the job without much, if any dropoff and strikes out a man per inning. If Huston has a problem this year, I would not be surprised to see Justin start getting the ball.
Seth McClung (TB) – Got a September look late last year, and did well enough to be of great use of those who took a chance on him with their final purchase in CDM, where he was listed as a 400 starter. That said, McClung's career totals are not good so I don't consider his job to be in cement by any means.
Rafael Soriano (ATL) – Was closer of the future seemingly forever in Seattle, but Putz ended up getting there before Rafael. His numbers in middle reilief are still very good, he's got a good chance of inheriting the closers role in the A-T-L.
Solomon Torres (PIT) – He seems to have been around forever, he actually seemed to be retired forever too - and he was. Now the journeyman is slated to at least open the season as Pittsburgh's closer, although youngster Matt Capps is among those poised to succeed him. The very definition of a transitional closer.
Kevin Gregg (FL) – Former Angel middle-man deserves a look after getting traded out of Cali and landing in South Florida. With Taylor Tankersley possibly having arm problems, Gregg may just get an opportunity to close. Has a good, but not spectacular track record.
Jorge Julio (AZ) – Had a couple of decent years as the Orioles closer a few years back, and then filled in well for Jose Valverde last season. Although his ERA/WHIP wasn't great, he did have 88 K's in 66 IP.
Matt Capps (PIT) – His control stands out most of all, the stats the jump out most are a 9-1 record (impressive anywhere, especially Pittsburgh) along with only 12 free passes in 81 IP, a great middle reliever at the very least with a potential to close.
Scott Linebrink (SD) – The bridge between the starting pitcher and closer Trevor Hoffman has been particularly strong in recent years. Linebrink's ERA did rise from 1.83 to 3.57 last year, but if you are in a league that awards holds Linebrink should be among the league leaders.
Bob Howry (CHC) – Averages nearly a strikeout per inning and had a solid September closing five games. Could figure into the closing mix on the North Side, but the Cubs will probably think of Howry as more of an eighth-inning specialist than a closer.
Scot Shields (ANG) – Barring a Francisco Rodriguez injury, he won't close. What he will do however is rack up a phenomonal number of innings for a reliever, and will contribute in strikeouts while lowering your WHIP/ERA.
Dan Wheeler (HOU) – Posts solid numbers including nearly a strikeout per inning. And considering the roller-coaster ride Brad Lidge is, Wheeler could be called on to close from time to time.
Fernando Rodney (DET) – Has an acceptable makeup to close and would probably do well with a lot of teams, but will likely have to continue to settle for set-up work in Detroit. Could move up to top-15 if Jim Leyland was to turn to him to close.
David Weathers (CIN) – The classic 'he is what he is' guy. Weathers is served best in middle-to-late relief, but also fills in very capably as a closer. Veteran doesn't strike out a lot, but won't hurt you in the other categories.
Juan Rincon (MN) – Had some amazing numbers out of the pen a few years back, including winning 11 games. His numbers have fallen considerably after getting busted by baseball's steroid policy early in 2005. Still one of the better eighth-inning people around.
Mike MacDougal (CWS) – Perhaps my deepest sleeper of all, MacDougal has come a long ways control-wise since his Kansas City days. Keep him in mind if Bobby Jenks doesn't get in shape.
Bill Bray (CIN) – A 2004 first-round pick, Bray could wind up being the biggest piece of the puzzle in the Reds mid-season trade with Washington. Bray figures in the Reds closer mix, but could also fall into becoming a situational left-hander.
