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Welcome to what may sadly be the last great dance, the last NCAA tourney before the TV contract is renegotiated and the field possibly expanded to possibly as high as 96 teams, a subject that I covered in my last blog. Don't know what would be worse, the field expanding or the TV contract moving to ESPN, my cable rates then going even higher, and worst of all - Gus Johnson being left out in the cold.

There is no shortage of bracket projections in the media these days, with a couple of networks doing bracket specials in an endless 24/7 loop. The following is just my possible take on how the tourney may play out. 

The trend that can't be ignored is the glass slipper has gone away the past few years, all four #1 seeds made the Final Four two years ago and recently a #11 beating a #6 has been referred to as a monumental upset. 

However I see a little more turbulence this time around, regular staples North Carolina and Connecticut incredibly did not make the field this year, while Kentucky is now a #1 seed - last year at this time UK's coach was literally (and I mean literally) being run out of town. Tells how much bringing in a marquee coach and recruiting a couple of blue chip NBA Lottery one-and-doners will get you turned around.

My #1 rule for bracketology is to simply stay away from the #16's, #15's, and even #14's. Maybe Vermont will become the first #16 seed in 26 years to knock off the #1. But what is the upside?? You get a mere one game up on the competition. And it probably means that for one wild upset that you do nail, you probably also picked four or five other upsets that won't happen. If Vermont were to beat Syracuse, you at least have a lot of company taking an L on that one, if you don't like the Orange, wait until the regionals before predicting an upset, and in general - shoot for the rounds of 32 and 16 to make your upset picks.

Also, there is not a lot of depth this year, as evidenced by the likes of Georgetown (finished eighth in the Big East regular season), Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Baylor, and a fast freefalling Purdue team all earning top-four seeds in their regionals - a few teams out of that list could not make it past the first weekend. 

And one other general statement, look out for the Big East teams to potentially dominate this tournament, as that conference has become hoop's answer to the powerful SEC in football.

Now to target specific games and regions with the purpose of mapping out specific strategies to pull off that special bracket...

(8) UNLV v. (9) Northern Iowa - I almost have to flip a coin on this game, and it is in fact about a push in Vegas. With a final RPI ranking of 17 after winning their conference tourney, UNI got about as raw a deal as anyone in the field. I would like their chances of winning this game, but I like UNLV's chances as well. The winner of this game gets #1 overall seed Kansas, so don't wast too much time on this one, if playing multiple brackets I'd say split them up.

(5) Michigan St. v. (12) New Mexico St. - Everyone loves the #12 v. the #5, but I'm not too excited about the #12 offerings this year. Michigan St. get much more respect in the polls (#11 and #12) than in the RPI (#28). That said, I like Tom Izzo's crew as a darkhorse who could give Kansas a run in the round of 16. 

(6) Tennessee v. (11) San Diego St. - The Aztecs made damn sure this time that they didn't get a raw deal from the selection committee, winning the Mountain West tourney.  Mission accomplished. But as Mike Leach would say, that was LAST (BLEEPIN') WEEK!!! SDSU does have a nice #18 RPI, but they go only seven deep and don't shoot well from the line. I says the Aztecs shot their wad in the conference tourney and Bruce Pearl's crew should advance to Round 2.

(4) Vanderbilt v. (13) Murray St. - As much as I don't like the 12's this year, there are two very attractive 13's, both of whom will go off this week as only four-point underdogs. Vanderbilt is not exactly a perennial power, and could be ripe for the picking.

(7) BYU v. (10) Florida - It seems like the NCAA is hellbent on an annual basis to get rid of BYU as soon as humanly possible, seeding the Cougars a couple slots lower than they probably should (some say a tradeoff from BYU's 'no play Sunday' rule) and giving them an early Thursday tee time. The past few years BYU has been done by 2:30 PM Eastern the first day of the tourney, it's feels like they were never even in the field. However the NCAA did actually throw the Cougars a bone this year, assigning them to the Salt Lake City regional. If BYU can beat Florida (and that's an if), then knock off #2 seed Kansas St. (a huge IF), the Cougars would be looking at playing the regional semi-finals virtually at home and then can dare to dream Elite Eight, or even if I dare say, Final Four. And this is a little better BYU edition this time around, Jimmer Fredette is a Stephen Curry type who has dropped 40+ on a couple of opponents this year, if he has a hot day or two the Y could put a Davidson type run. If playing multiple brackets, you might want to play loose with one that has this scenario play out.

(8) Texas v. (9) Wake Forest - The Longhorns have been freefalling since the first of the year, I like the #9 ACC representative here. Again, whoever wins will be a prohibitive underdog to Kentucky in Round 2. 

(5) Temple v. (12) Cornell - A lot of people have jumped on the bandwagon of the Ivy League representative, but the Big Red does not own one quality win on the season. I'm going Temple on this one. 

(4) Wisconsin v. (13) Wofford - It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for both Wisconsin-based teams, as both Wisky and Marquette were both expected to struggle. Now both stand a very good chance at landing in the same regional along with Kentucky, which was the case in 2003 when Wisky lost to Kentucky who then got rolled by D-Wade and Marquette. With Wofford, then Temple as the probable opponent, the Badgers stand an excellent chance of making it through the first weekend. 

(6) Marquette v. (11) Washington - I also (along with many others) like Marquette's draw this year. I don't look at U-Dub as a huge obstacle, and #3 New Mexico in round 2 I would also consider a winnable game. 

(2) West Virginia v. (15) Morgan St. -  The Mountaineers will make it past Round One, and I have them getting past the first weekend. But beyond that beware, Bob Huggins-coached teams have made perennial early exits in the past with Cincinnati and the trend proved transferable last year when sixth-seeded West Virginia lost in Round 1 to #11 seed Dayton last year. Anything short of a Final Four this year may cement Huggins status as the Marty Schottenheimer of colleg hoops.

(8) California v. (9) Louisville - Again, Pac-10 v. Big East, have to go Big East...

(5) Texas A&M v. (12) Utah St. - The Aggies will definitely win this game. OK, I was being a smart-ass. But as is the case with BYU, TAM-U could benefit by some home cooking down the road. If TAM-U can beat USU, then the winner of Purdue/Siena, then A&M would be playing in the regionals just down the road from College Station in Houston. If you think Duke is beatable, you may want to make a contribution with a bracket having TAM-U going Elite Eight or even Final Four. 

(4) Purdue v. (13) Siena - Siena is no stranger to being giant killers in the NCAA tourney. and their RPI is #31 against Purdue's #16, who have been lost since losing Robbie Hummel a few weeks back. On CBSsports.com, 36% have Siena winning this game, it would not be a huge upset. 

(6) Notre Dame v. (11) Old Dominion - The Irish are another #6 Big East seed with an excellent chance to advance to the Sweet 16, I would not be surprised if ND were to knock off #3 seed Baylor in Round. But before dismissing ODU, it should be noted that they have a win at Georgetown on their resume.

(7) Richmond v. (10) St. Mary's (CA) - I hate these two playing each other, I will say this might be the best matchup of round one. Richmond is a strong team, but St. Mary's has Davidson-like credentials and is capable of knocking off multiple teams. Villanova is going to have a tough out against whoever win this, 'Nova might want to root for triple-overtime here.

Posted by kacsports at 05:48 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

It's amazing how the NCAA works. All these years screaming about the BCS and fans clamoring for a playoff system to determine a national champion, and the NCAA says they cannot possibly mess with the glamor and the tradition of holding no less than 35 bowl games.

But then take the system that has been in place perfectly for 26 years, a system that everyone demands be left alone, and the powers that be suddenly want to tweak it, and expand the NCAA men's basketball tournament to 96 teams, absorbing the current 32-team NIT field (which the NCAA bought out a few years back) in the process. 

If anyone is able to make sense of the NCAA for me, could you please shoot me a letter???

As I blogged earlier this year, I am actually against the football playoff, because at the top level you would have too many top players already thinking about the NFL v. having to play upwards to three more collegiate games per bono. The 'playoffs' that those players are thinking of are called the Senior Bowl, the NFL Combine, and 'Pro Day' - that's where a lot of players would rather show their skills than in games against top competition where the injury risk would be high. In fact there are two members of the Oklahoma Sooners who missed most of this past year with injury, bad news for the Oklahoma program but the silver lining was the players were able to get rehabbed and prepped for the NFL Draft Day process.

But that's an argument for football. The basketball system doesn't really need major tweaking. It's worked just fine now since 1985. A week+ of conference tournaments leads to 'Selection Sunday', with 31 qualifiers along with 34 at-large teams getting invitations to what has become known as the 'Big Dance'. And since 1982 the NCAA has been fortunate enough to have a willing TV relationship with CBS. So-called experts spend weeks determining which teams are on the cash bubble, and the first two days of the tournament have become an excuse to get away with skipping work and holding various pools in the office regarding basketball programs that most would otherwise care little about. 

But as impossible that the NCAA and various conferences say that changing a football post-season system would be, the same people apparently have no problem ballooning the NCAA basketball field from 65 to 96 teams, and possibly as early as next year. 

The rub is that the NCAA has an out in their $6 billion (with a B) CBS contract. After the network signs off with One Shining Moment three Mondays from now, the NCAA can rip up that contract and pursue a new package with an expanded format with multiple broadcast partners including potentially ESPN and FOX.

The subject of tournament expansion is nothing new, and 100 percent agree the idea of the 64th and 65th teams playing each other for the right to get routed by Kentucky three nights later makes no sense. And then there is the #16 v. #1 games, the #15 v. #2, and even most of the #14 v. #3's. The #14 seeds do have a 15-85 record in the first round, the #15's are 4-96 (last time was Hampton in 2001), and the #16 seeds are a perfect 0-100.

Regarding #16 seeds, I do always note that #16 Harvard did win at #1 Stanford in the women's tournament once, the game being held at Stanford as top seeds get to host games on the women's side - and I only point that out to prove it can happen, and that perfect storm probably will happen one of these years. But with a combined 4-196 record, the #15 and #16 seeds are in essence the Washington Generals v. the Harlem Globetrotters. With each four-game block that goes on during the first round of the tournament, are you really going to plunk money on the DirecTV package that shows all the games if one or two of those games are #1 v. #16 or #2 v. #15???

I will say this - a 96-team field would at least give the bottom markers a chance to make noise. What are now #15 and #16 seeds would become #22, #23, or #24 seeds. Let's take the #24 seeds. Instead of being thrown to the wolves and facing the #1 seed, they would open the first round against the #9 seed. A team, like Winthrop would, instead of having to face say Kansas, would now open against someone along the lines of Louisville or St. Mary's, a game in which the bottom seed would at least have a fighting chance. Win that and the #24 seed would play the #8 seed (who gets first-round bye), a team such as Notre Dame or Clemson. Somehow win that game, and the #24 in all likelihood then gets #1, but in the round of 32, by that time such a Cinderella would at least be a nice story. 

And then there are top seeds, obviously the #1 through #8 seeds get byes to the round of 64. But the #1 seed would no longer open with a cupcake. Instead of easily cruising to a 40-point win over the likes of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, a team such as Kentucky would be looking at the winner of the #16 v. #17 first-round game, a team along the lines of Tulsa, Cincinnati, and New Mexico St. - teams currently NIT bound, and deservedly so, under the current format. An opponent that the likes of KU or UK should still win handily, but not an automatic. The argument for the 96-team field is it would make a lot of the first and second round (currently first round) games that would be much more competitive, it would also mean four days of 16-game slates to open the tourney, which would only be expanded by a few days.

Various ideas are brought out by coaches and writers on a yearly basis. They range from expanding the field to 68 teams, so at least there would be four instead of one 'opening-round game', also allowing three more bubble teams into the party, to upping the field to 72 or 80 teams, or the 96-team idea that has picked up momentum. 

Some coaches have even suggested doing like what various states do in high school basketball, and put all 347 current Division 1 teams in the field. That's not necessary because in reality that's the exact purpose the current conference tourneys, which are in essence satellite qualifiers, serve now. Save for the Ivy League, which still goes Bob Costas-old school style, or some other independents, virtually every team goes into the month of March with a chance to win the National Championship. If you're say, Fordham, and just went 2-26 on the season, you can still win the conference tournament and get a ticket to the big show and potentially cut down the nets at the Final Four. Sure some conferences now award top teams with a double-bye stepladder format, and you and I will be struck by lightning and mauled by a polar bear 300 times before a 5-24 regular season team out of the Atlantic Sun wins the National Championship, but in the current system nearly everybody goes into March with a lottery ticket in their hands.

At the end of the day though, the time is not right to expand to 96 teams, and I don't think the NCAA would be wise to rip up that $6 billion dollar contract with CBS, which is not exactly chump change. Perhaps you could get more from multiple outlets for an expanded tournament, and DirecTV could be a player for all I know - but can you be sure one network only offers say, $1.5 billion for the first round and another network only bids $3 billion for the rest of the tournament. And how about the arena venues?? Would they fill even close to capacity to see say, St. Louis v. Santa Barabara followed by UTEP v. Northwestern in a first-round doubleheader??? Might be a tough sell in the current economic climate. 

My advice would be not to screw with success and don't fix something that's not broke, keep the tourney at 65, or expand to 68 if you must...

Now for my seed projections as of Sunday morning 3/14...

1. Kentucky, Kansas, West Virginia, Duke
2. Syracuse, Kansas State, Ohio State, Villanova
3. Georgetown (big winner this week), Temple, Michigan State, Pittsburgh
4. Baylor, Texas A&M, Tennessee, New Mexico
5. Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue (falling like a rock)
6. Gonzaga, Butler, Marquette, BYU (no play Sunday usually docks them a seed, but can't put Y. any lower than #6)
7. Xavier (literally the 'X' factor), Richmond, Notre Dame, Florida St.
   
8. St. Mary's, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma St. Texas (UT's stock been going down by the day)
9. Louisville, Clemson, Missouri, San Diego St.
   
10. Wake Forest, Washington, Georgia Tech, UNLV
11. California, UTEP, Old Dominion, Minnesota (may be in win or lose Big Ten final)
12. Virginia Tech, Utah State (last at-large in, Florida first team out), Cornell, Houston (cost someone a bid)
    
13. Siena, New Mexico St., Murray St., Ohio
14. Wofford, Santa Barbara, Sam Houston St., Oakland
15. Montana, Winthrop, Vermont, Robert Morris
16. North Texas, East Tennessee St., Morgan St., *Lehigh, *Arkansas-Pine Bluff
    

Posted by kacsports at 03:38 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)