RISE AND FIRE
Welcome to what may sadly be the last great dance, the last NCAA tourney before the TV contract is renegotiated and the field possibly expanded to possibly as high as 96 teams, a subject that I covered in my last blog. Don't know what would be worse, the field expanding or the TV contract moving to ESPN, my cable rates then going even higher, and worst of all - Gus Johnson being left out in the cold.
There is no shortage of bracket projections in the media these days, with a couple of networks doing bracket specials in an endless 24/7 loop. The following is just my possible take on how the tourney may play out.
The trend that can't be ignored is the glass slipper has gone away the past few years, all four #1 seeds made the Final Four two years ago and recently a #11 beating a #6 has been referred to as a monumental upset.
However I see a little more turbulence this time around, regular staples North Carolina and Connecticut incredibly did not make the field this year, while Kentucky is now a #1 seed - last year at this time UK's coach was literally (and I mean literally) being run out of town. Tells how much bringing in a marquee coach and recruiting a couple of blue chip NBA Lottery one-and-doners will get you turned around.
My #1 rule for bracketology is to simply stay away from the #16's, #15's, and even #14's. Maybe Vermont will become the first #16 seed in 26 years to knock off the #1. But what is the upside?? You get a mere one game up on the competition. And it probably means that for one wild upset that you do nail, you probably also picked four or five other upsets that won't happen. If Vermont were to beat Syracuse, you at least have a lot of company taking an L on that one, if you don't like the Orange, wait until the regionals before predicting an upset, and in general - shoot for the rounds of 32 and 16 to make your upset picks.
Also, there is not a lot of depth this year, as evidenced by the likes of Georgetown (finished eighth in the Big East regular season), Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Baylor, and a fast freefalling Purdue team all earning top-four seeds in their regionals - a few teams out of that list could not make it past the first weekend.
And one other general statement, look out for the Big East teams to potentially dominate this tournament, as that conference has become hoop's answer to the powerful SEC in football.
Now to target specific games and regions with the purpose of mapping out specific strategies to pull off that special bracket...
(8) UNLV v. (9) Northern Iowa - I almost have to flip a coin on this game, and it is in fact about a push in Vegas. With a final RPI ranking of 17 after winning their conference tourney, UNI got about as raw a deal as anyone in the field. I would like their chances of winning this game, but I like UNLV's chances as well. The winner of this game gets #1 overall seed Kansas, so don't wast too much time on this one, if playing multiple brackets I'd say split them up.
(5) Michigan St. v. (12) New Mexico St. - Everyone loves the #12 v. the #5, but I'm not too excited about the #12 offerings this year. Michigan St. get much more respect in the polls (#11 and #12) than in the RPI (#28). That said, I like Tom Izzo's crew as a darkhorse who could give Kansas a run in the round of 16.
(6) Tennessee v. (11) San Diego St. - The Aztecs made damn sure this time that they didn't get a raw deal from the selection committee, winning the Mountain West tourney. Mission accomplished. But as Mike Leach would say, that was LAST (BLEEPIN') WEEK!!! SDSU does have a nice #18 RPI, but they go only seven deep and don't shoot well from the line. I says the Aztecs shot their wad in the conference tourney and Bruce Pearl's crew should advance to Round 2.
(4) Vanderbilt v. (13) Murray St. - As much as I don't like the 12's this year, there are two very attractive 13's, both of whom will go off this week as only four-point underdogs. Vanderbilt is not exactly a perennial power, and could be ripe for the picking.
(7) BYU v. (10) Florida - It seems like the NCAA is hellbent on an annual basis to get rid of BYU as soon as humanly possible, seeding the Cougars a couple slots lower than they probably should (some say a tradeoff from BYU's 'no play Sunday' rule) and giving them an early Thursday tee time. The past few years BYU has been done by 2:30 PM Eastern the first day of the tourney, it's feels like they were never even in the field. However the NCAA did actually throw the Cougars a bone this year, assigning them to the Salt Lake City regional. If BYU can beat Florida (and that's an if), then knock off #2 seed Kansas St. (a huge IF), the Cougars would be looking at playing the regional semi-finals virtually at home and then can dare to dream Elite Eight, or even if I dare say, Final Four. And this is a little better BYU edition this time around, Jimmer Fredette is a Stephen Curry type who has dropped 40+ on a couple of opponents this year, if he has a hot day or two the Y could put a Davidson type run. If playing multiple brackets, you might want to play loose with one that has this scenario play out.
(8) Texas v. (9) Wake Forest - The Longhorns have been freefalling since the first of the year, I like the #9 ACC representative here. Again, whoever wins will be a prohibitive underdog to Kentucky in Round 2.
(5) Temple v. (12) Cornell - A lot of people have jumped on the bandwagon of the Ivy League representative, but the Big Red does not own one quality win on the season. I'm going Temple on this one.
(4) Wisconsin v. (13) Wofford - It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for both Wisconsin-based teams, as both Wisky and Marquette were both expected to struggle. Now both stand a very good chance at landing in the same regional along with Kentucky, which was the case in 2003 when Wisky lost to Kentucky who then got rolled by D-Wade and Marquette. With Wofford, then Temple as the probable opponent, the Badgers stand an excellent chance of making it through the first weekend.
(6) Marquette v. (11) Washington - I also (along with many others) like Marquette's draw this year. I don't look at U-Dub as a huge obstacle, and #3 New Mexico in round 2 I would also consider a winnable game.
(2) West Virginia v. (15) Morgan St. - The Mountaineers will make it past Round One, and I have them getting past the first weekend. But beyond that beware, Bob Huggins-coached teams have made perennial early exits in the past with Cincinnati and the trend proved transferable last year when sixth-seeded West Virginia lost in Round 1 to #11 seed Dayton last year. Anything short of a Final Four this year may cement Huggins status as the Marty Schottenheimer of colleg hoops.
(8) California v. (9) Louisville - Again, Pac-10 v. Big East, have to go Big East...
(5) Texas A&M v. (12) Utah St. - The Aggies will definitely win this game. OK, I was being a smart-ass. But as is the case with BYU, TAM-U could benefit by some home cooking down the road. If TAM-U can beat USU, then the winner of Purdue/Siena, then A&M would be playing in the regionals just down the road from College Station in Houston. If you think Duke is beatable, you may want to make a contribution with a bracket having TAM-U going Elite Eight or even Final Four.
(4) Purdue v. (13) Siena - Siena is no stranger to being giant killers in the NCAA tourney. and their RPI is #31 against Purdue's #16, who have been lost since losing Robbie Hummel a few weeks back. On CBSsports.com, 36% have Siena winning this game, it would not be a huge upset.
(6) Notre Dame v. (11) Old Dominion - The Irish are another #6 Big East seed with an excellent chance to advance to the Sweet 16, I would not be surprised if ND were to knock off #3 seed Baylor in Round. But before dismissing ODU, it should be noted that they have a win at Georgetown on their resume.
(7) Richmond v. (10) St. Mary's (CA) - I hate these two playing each other, I will say this might be the best matchup of round one. Richmond is a strong team, but St. Mary's has Davidson-like credentials and is capable of knocking off multiple teams. Villanova is going to have a tough out against whoever win this, 'Nova might want to root for triple-overtime here.
