NO WAY JOSE???
It finally did for Jose Bautista on Monday night after hitting his 39th and 40th home runs of the 2009 season against the New York Yankees, the second of which came after the benches cleared after he was decked in an earlier at-bat. It took 29 seconds for Bautista to circle the bases, after a bat flip, a glare into the opposing pitcher, and finally a couple of fist pumps after finally crossing home plate.
During those 29 seconds the words 'Bautista' and 'steroids' became trending topics on Twitter.
Don't believe, check out this Bill Simmons tweet (still up as of Wednesday morning...)
That was not an aimless statement on an obscure message board. That was coming from a 50 home run hitter among sports and comedy writers. Degree in political science, and a Masters in print journalism. Wrote some of Jimmy Kimmel's material for a couple years. And his Twitter followers are measured in millions as opposed to hundreds or even thousands.
Don't look for Outside the Lines to put Simmons feet to the fire on TV anytime soon...
It has been surprising that Bautista got this far into the season without someone writing something. But then again, (at least south of the Canadian border) Toronto is not exactly known as a baseball hotbed. How many appearances have the Jays made on ESPN this year?? On TBS?? Or even the MLB Network?? Even the Florida Marlins get a little pub thanks to Cy Young candidate Josh Johnson and slugging prodigy Mike Stanton.
Actually one of the local Toronto papers fired the first salvo in it's Sunday edition, the day before the 2-HR game v. the Yankees. The piece, written by the papers associate sports editor, was titled 'Gotta At Least Ask the Question'.
The piece made reference to the anomaly of Brady Anderson's 50 home run season in 1996 and also noted past Toronto players who wound up involved in baseball's PED web, a list that includes Roger Clemens, Troy Glaus, and even catcher Greg Zaun.
Well, someone at least has to answer the question.
And I guess after hitting a mere 59 home runs in portions of six seasons, the question on Bautista is valid, especially considering he is listed at 6' even and 195 pounds soakin' wet, a midget compared to the likes of Jason Heyward (6'5 and room to fill at 240) and Stanton (6'5” 233 and a former prep football standout).
I can give explanations though...
POWER SURGE ACTUALLY BEGAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR – Note that Bautista actually has 50 home runs in his last 154 games. Jose closed out the 2009 season hitting 10 HR/21 RBI in his final 30 games. Also, outside of getting 532 AB's with the lowly Pirates in 2007, Bautista has not really been a regular starter in previous years. But going by his part-time work in past seasons, 25 or even 30 home runs was a reasonable expectation if Bautista was given the chance to play daily, which he obviously has.
BAUTISTA HAS FEASTED AT HOME – The home/road splits this year are eye-opening. On the road Jose has played in 67 games and hit 15 of his home runs, pro-rated to 150+ games that is a nice 35 home run-type season. Bautista however has only played 57 games at SkydomeRogers Centre, where he has hit his other 25 home runs. Not the largest sample size, but pro-rate that out to 155 games and you have 68 HR's, which is paranormal. But since the venue opened in 1989, the Toronto Stadium has always been a home run park, it hasn't always been noted as such – in part because TBJ has had some decent pitchers over the years starting with the early '90's World Series winners and moving on to Clemens, Roy Halladay, and even the current staff. Graphing out some of Bautista's Skydome hits, he would actually have four more HR's playing home games at Fenway Park (wind and weather obviously not in the equation) and a HR hit to left-center at Fenway this year would had theoretically died on the track at Skydome. Coversely, Jose would had lost upwards to seven homers playing home games at Commerica Park (Bautista might want to rule out the Tigers when he becomes a FA). One side note, Bautista had an inside-the-park HR at home on July 7 and also hit a home run that hit the foul pole just above the fence on the road at Oakland. (RESEARCH DONE VIA KATRON.ORG)SKILL SET – Look at the hit charts, and you will clearly see what Bautista has evolved into, a right-handed dead pull hitter, all 40 of his home runs this year has been to left field. If Bautista had a stat-line right now similar to Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera, or Albert Pujols complete with .300+ batting average), that might be something that would raise suspicion. But Bautista has never been a high average hitter, in fact his career average remains at a mere .242.
AGE 29 – Suspicion was raised when Barry Bonds suddenly went from a 40 home run hitter to a 73 home run hitter at age 38, for good reason. A player suddenly blossoming and having this type of breakout between the ages of 28-30 is far from unprecedented.
CURRENT TRAINING REGIMENS – We can talk about PED's etc. all day. Fact is, players take care of themselves, LEGALLY, today than ever before. There was a day, and not long ago, when players post-game routine involved the bar or even the dreaded golden arches, and also let themselves go somewhat in the off-season. Today's players simply chop wood in the training areas more than ever before, and obviously have the financial incentive to do so.
50+ HOME RUN SEASONS STILL VERY POSSIBLE – There have been no 50 home run hitters the past two years. Surprisingly here were also no 50 home run hitters in 2003 (Thome/A-Rod 47) or 2004 (Adrian Beltre 48 in his walk year w/Dodgers). The height of the PED era saw 11 50+ home run hitters from 1998-2001. However, this new era (since testing began), has seen Andruw Jones hit 51 (2005), Ryan Howard 58 (2006), David Ortiz 54 (2006), A-Rod 54 (2007), and Prince Fielder 50 (2007). Andrew Jones' skill set is similar to Bautista, long on power but low average. Howard and Fielder are huge guys and have come close to matching those seasons. Also include Adam Dunn in that group, a perennial 40 home run man. And obviously A-Rod and Ortiz have unfortunately been through the PED blotter. But with nearly twice as many teams as 50 years ago, simple math along with the current training methods in itself improve the probability of players joining the 50+ club.
I'll say what I said when Ryan Howard hit 58 in his first full-season, congratulations, and hopefully he passes every drug test the rest of his life, and that no one implicates him as long as anyone cares about baseball. Unfortunately that's the scrutiny that every MLB player now faces going forward. I heard Justin Verlander say three years ago that he was tested the day after pitching a no-hitter in which he was throwing 100+ MPH in the ninth inning. It would be no shock if Bautista's performance this year has brought on an additional visit or two from the piss man.
Although the potential remains for masking agents or new products not yet detected by testing systems, the good news is that those systems are now in place, and for that Jose Bautista deserves the benefit of the doubt.
