Albert Pujols (STL) – If you’re playing fantasy baseball for the first time, and are drafting first or second, you can’t go wrong taking either Albert or Alex Rodriguez – as their stats are nearly identical. Pujols gives himself consideration for the first spot overall by dramatically increasing his stolen bases last year to 16, one of the higher totals you will see from the position. Pujols is also as good as it gets in the batting average department, hitting .330 or above in each of the last three seasons. The only ‘X’ factor for Pujols this season is how the new Busch Stadium will play offensively, I have a feeling they’ll make it friendly for right-handed hitters. If someone ever hits for the Triple Crown again, Pujols will be the likely culprit.
David Ortiz (BOS) – Is listed as a first baseman in fantasy challenge games, so I will include the likes of Ortiz here rather than have a DH-only list later on with only a half-dozen viable players. With a .300 average, 88 HR and 287 RBI’s in just the last two years. Papi’s about as sure a thing as there is in those three categories.
Mark Teixeira (TX) – Has completed a slow, steady ascent into stardom over the last three years, improving across the board in four categories during that time – culminating in playing every game in 2005 and driving in an insane 144 runs. Playing the Majors second best hitting park, Teixeira is a solid late first-round choice.
Derrek Lee (CHC) – Had his career year in 2005, especially in batting average flirting with .400 for much of the first three months. Always has been a good base stealer for a first baseman. Hitting 46 home runs you would expected more than 106 RBI however. Although he was neck in neck with Pujols in the MVP race for much of last year, Lee still doesn’t rank as high as Al because Derrek has only played at that level for one year.
Travis Hafner (CLE) – Was on his way to a monster break-out season which got derailed somewhat after getting on the receiving end of a beanball in mid-July. Has hit over .300 with over 100 RBI in each of the last two seasons and statistically was actually better on the road than at home last year. Only played the field once last year, so Hafner is eligible only at DH in most leagues.
Todd Helton (COL) – His stats started to decline in an injury riddled 2005 season, and his value would drop to a Lyle Overbay/Sean Casey level if he ever got traded from Colorado, which with his salary becomes a bigger possibility each July 31. Last year Helton was .353/57/13/52 at home compared to .287/35/7/27 on the road. Be warned of the trade possibility before drafting.
Paul Konerko (CWS) – Was rewarded for back-to-back 40 HR seasons with a new five year contract shortly after the White Sox World Series Championship last fall. Does his best work at home where he slugged .580 last year v. .492 on the road.
Lance Berkman (HOU) – Jeff Bagwell appears out of the Astros plans for good, meaning Lance will be a first baseman from now on – and qualifies there as well as in the outfield. Had a slow start after mending from an off-season knee injury, but came around and posted his usual solid numbers.
Ryan Howard (PHI) – An essential in many salary-cap type games this year, Howard hit 22 HR/63 RBI in essentially a half-seasons worth of work. With Jim Thome traded, Howard will have a monster year playing in one of the Majors most hitting-friendly parks.
Carlos Delgado (NYM) – Hopefully arriving in Shea Stadium will work better for Delgado than it did for Carlos Beltran last year. Delgado has a pretty solid baseline and did well in Florida last year, which is not exactly a hitters paradise neither. Expect the usual 30 HR/100 RBI while flirting with a .300 average.
Justin Morneau (MN) – The 2005 season was a modest disappointment for Morneau, first he was hit with everything but the black plague before the season started, then was beaned in the second game of the season. Morneau struggled some after that but also flashed some of his enormous power potential. A better gauge of Morneau’s possibilities was when he hit 19 HR/58 RBI in a half-season in 2004. Morneau is a tremendous physical specimen and will be one of the better breakout players this year.
Adam Dunn (CIN) – I continue to peg Adam as the best threat to hit 50+ home runs this coming year. But the power comes at a price, any average over .250 is considered a bonus. Dunn walks a lot which helps in the runs scored department. Qualifies at both first and in the outfield.
Richie Sexson (SEA) – Doesn’t play in the best hitters park and is not great with the average, but proved he is healthy again last year and is a given for 35+ home runs and has also driven in 120+ runs in two of the last three seasons.
Jim Thome (CWS) – May be on the decline after hurting his elbow last year, but don’t forget Thome hit 190 home runs between 2001-04, although that was in plus-hitting parks in Cleveland and Philadelphia. Lower your expectations slightly on the South Side, and expect 30 HR/100 RBI as the White Sox DH.
Prince Fielder (MIL) – After seeing most of his time exclusively as a pinch-hitter or as a DH in interleague games, the trading of Lyle Overbay gives the starting first base job to Fielder. Has just prodigious power, just ask the passing cars that were hit by batting practice home runs while he was still in Nashville. 30+ home runs will not be a surprise, although veteran Corey Koskie figures to spell Fielder on some occasions.
Brad Wilkerson (TX) – Fell from 32 to 11 home runs last year, but keep in mind that the dimensions of RFK Stadium seemingly run all the way to the Maryland and Virginia borders. Now Wilkerson moves to a hitters paradise and also steals some bases, and is also eligible in the outfield.
Batting average suffers somewhat but I think that will even improve this year.
Aubrey Huff (TB) – Has averaged 28 HR/101 the past three years, and is far enough along on the clock to start earning big dollars, which means Peter Gammons will spend half of July speculating where Huff may end up. Also eligible in the outfield.
Chad Tracy (AZ) – Not thought of as a power prospect in the minors, Tracy improved from 8 to 27 home runs in about the same amount of AB’s last year and also hit over .300. Is still over 25 so the power could develop even more. Is slated to see time at third base this year which would give him 1B/3B/OF eligibility.
Sean Casey (PIT) – If you think Casey could return to his 2004 #’s (.324/101/24/99) feel free to knock him up about five spots higher. A more realistic scenario will have Casey stats falling between that and his massive 2005 dropoff (.312/75/9/58).
Nick Johnson (WSH) – Was very solid the first half of the season in the BA department, but wasn’t the same after a DL stint. Will hit #3 in the Nationals order but don’t expect a lot of home runs.
Lyle Overbay (TOR) – ‘O’ is now in T.O, but expect more of the same. A decent batting average along with about 20 HR and 80+ RBI. Is now 29 so the upward trend will start to level off.
Jason Giambi (NYY) - .271/32/87 went beyond the wildest expectations of most last year. I’m still not optimistic that Giambi can do it again in 2006. And you have to be leery of the remote possibility of Giambi getting busted on the roids, an offense now means a 30-game suspension, and probably the end of Giambi’s fantasy value for good.
Dmitri Young (DET) – Keep him healthy for the entire year (which has not happened the last two years) and you have a chance at 30 HR/90 RBI.
Mike Sweeney (KC) – Injuries have reduced Sweeney to a 20 HR/80 RBI man, although he still hits for a fairly high average. Expect Sweeney do be dealt at some point during the season.
Frank Thomas (CWS) - May be on his last legs, and has missed most of the last two seasons, but had an impressive 12 HR and 26 RBI in just over 100 AB's last year, a very good ratio. Eligible at DH only.
Chris Shelton (DET) – Hit a very impressive .300/18/59 in four months worth of work after being called up last season. I would put him a few spots higher except he will be battling Carlos Pena for playing time.
Mike Jacobs (FL) – Now for a very deep sleeper, Jacobs hit .300 with 11 HR/23 RBI after a late-season call-up to the Mets, and was promptly dealt in the Carlos Delgado trade. Multiply those numbers over an entire season and you have near-MVP material. However factor in bad team plus bad hitters park and your expectations should become much more realistic. Value gets enhanced more if he were to qualify at catcher
Adam LaRoche (ATL) – Strictly has been a platoon player for the Braves, but that will change after ageless Julio Franco was actually wooed away by the Mets. He is at that magical age of 26 and did hit 20 HR/78 RBI last year. The case against LaRoche is that he can’t hit left-handers worth a darn and he has A.D.D, a small detail that still makes you wonder if he can make it to the next level.
Shea Hillenbrand (TOR) – The only first baseman available this year you also gives you eligibility at third. For the record Lyle Overbay arrival plus Corey Koskie departure means Shea sees most his time at the hot corner and DH this year. Power numbers are not spectacular but Hillenbrand will get you a solid batting average.
Dan Johnson (OAK) – With Erubial Durazo’s career in jeopardy, Johnson gets a full-time shot for the foreseeable future. Based on last year’s numbers, Johnson has upside and is a good bet for 20+ home runs and a threat for near 90 RBI.
Kevin Millar (BAL) – Was signed by the Orioles recently and figures to replace the disgraced Rafael Palmeiro at first. Player in a plus-hitters park gives him a chance to approach some of the numbers he achieved (25 HR/96 RBI) a few years back with the Red Sox.
Nick Swisher (OAK) – By appearing in 21 games last year, Swisher qualifies at first as well as the outfield. Did hit 21 home runs last year and has always been considered as a power prospect, but hitting for average has a ways to go.
Jay Gibbons (BAL) – Appeared at 22 games at first, go he gets the 1B/OF eligibility. What you see is what you get, 20+ bombs, a flirtation with 100 RBI if you’re lucky, and a batting average that won’t help you and is slow as molasses with no chance at recording a stolen base.
Ben Broussard (CLE) – Gets about 450 AB's and has flirted with 20 home runs the last few years.
Lance Niekro (SF) – Hit 12 HR/46 RBI in a half-years worth of work last year and should start this year with J.T. Snow departed.
Carlos Pena (DET) – 18 HR/44 RBI in a half-season’s worth of work not bad, but Pena is a strikeout machine which will always hold down his average as well as playing time. Becoming more or less a Russell Branyen-type player.
Tony Clark (AZ) – Finally had the breakout people were expecting 6-7 years ago hitting 30 HR’s and over .300. However prospect Connor Jackson is knocking at the door, which may make Tony expendable by mid-season.
Craig Wilson (PIT) – Actually flirted with 30 home runs just two years ago, but missed virtually all of last year with injuries, and is now stuck behind Sean Casey and Jeromy Burnitz on the depth chart.
Eric Hinske (TOR) – That Rookie of the Year campaigan only seems like it was ten years ago. Has only hit 42 home runs the last three years while hitting not much over .250
Phil Nevin (TX) – Bitched about Petco Park forever, and got his wish and went to Texas, and managed to do even worse. What management bitches about is his $10 million contract, which will almost force Nevin to get at least some playing time somewhere.
