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KACSPORTS/PACKERSEDGE 2006 FANTASY RANKINGS - QUARTERBACKS



1. Peyton Manning (IND) – In my opinion Manning is going way too low in so-called ‘expert drafts’, one of which had a team which took Larry Johnson second overall grabbing Peyton at the end of the second round. I have Manning at around #6 or #7 overall based simply on position scarcity. While at least three backs qualify for the top tier, Manning is head and shoulders among all other quarterbacks. Furthermore, Manning has taken Brett Favre’s place as the one player in fantasy football almost certain to stay in one piece. Some feel burned last year based on Manning dropping significantly from his historic 2004 #’s as well as the fact that Indy had everything clinched by Week 15. I expect a slight upturn based on no Edgerrin James as well as the fact that Indy won’t have the cakewalk they had in 2005 – assuring that #18 will be playing meaningful games in Weeks 15 and 16.



2. Tom Brady (NE) – If you are unable to grab Manning, you could probably afford to wait until about Round 4 to select your quarterback. The best of the rest is headed by none other than the Golden Boy from the team whose very uniforms look like the damn Super Bowl trophy itself. With a sputtering running game, Brady was forced to chuck the rock up 530 times last year, and has thrown an impressive 54 TD’s the past two years. And like Manning, Brady gets extra points in the durability department. Brady also gets a nice Week 15/16 schedule (HOU/@JAX).



3. Matt Hassselbeck (SEA) – Despite injuries that decimated his receiving corps for a good chunk of the 2005 season, Hasselbeck still had a career year with an impressive 25 TD’s over just nine picks. With a healthy and improved receiving corps, H-Beck could very well even top last years career year.



4. Carson Palmer (CIN) – If not for his questionable status for the beginning of the season, Palmer would be either #2 or #3 on this list. A very good strategy would be to find a way to draft Palmer and Chad Johnson in Rounds 2 through 4. At the very worst, you should have the best QB-receiver combo in the entire league – and that often adds up to a possible championship.



5. Donovan McNabb (PHI) – There have been stretches in recent years where McNabb has absolutely carried fantasy teams, including the entire 2004 season where he accounted for 31 passing TD’s plus three more on the ground. Even in the stormy, abbreviated 2005 season McNabb still accounted for 17 scores in just nine games. He’ll never admit it, but the absence of that Owens guy will have an impact, and also don’t look for McNabb to run nearly as much as in the past as the Eagles look to keep him in one piece.



6. Jake Delhomme (CAR) – Having the de-facto #1 receiver in football to throw to is never bad – and Keyshawn Johnson now gives Delhomme a solid second option on a team many pundits have pegged to go all the way. Delhomme has quietly accounted for 55 TD’s the last two years.



7. Eli Manning (NYG) – I’m guessing he’s ranked higher in most publications. The upside is that this is Eli’s third year, threw 25 TD’s last year, and should be morphing at least into a poor man’s version of his older brother. Red flags include the fact that his completion percentage is still relatively low and also that you’re asking for Plexico Burress to remain on the straight and narrow for 17 weeks – and that he doesn’t disappear at the wrong time, as was the case in the playoff game v. Carolina.



8. Marc Bulger (STL) – A risky pick here, if he stays in one piece Bulger could actually end up as the #2 or #3 ranked quarterback for the year. But those are big if’s, and his shoulder has a history of popping out of place with alarming frequency. Threw for nearly 2,300 yards and 14 TD’s last year in just eight games, two of which he was knocked out early.



9. Daunte Culpepper (MIA) – One of the true wild cards – word out of Miami has Culpepper’s recovery from last year’s catastrophic knee injury as nothing short of miraculous. Of course he slipped some last year without that Moss guy and you won’t see him take off and run nearly as often with the post-op knee. But keep an eye out for training camp and pre-season game reports – If Daunte is ready for Week 1 he will be very much worth a high selection.



10. Drew Brees (NO) – His stock is a little lower than he would be if still with the Chargers, or if he hadn’t gotten hurt in a meaningless Week 17 game last year. All of that said, Brees steps into a situation where Aaron Brooks had always done reasonably well – and there is also a particular #2 overall draftpick who can always bail out Brees with a 70-yard TD off a screen play at any moment. Despite having precious little besides Antonio Gates in his receiving corps, Brees accounted for 54 TD’s the last two years.



11. Jake Plummer (DEN) – Already a borderline top-dozen quarterback who threw 27 TD’s a couple years back, Plummer could stop it up another notch if new acquisition Javon Walker proves to be 100 percent. On the downside, Plummer has his intermittent explosive disorder and the team spent the #11 overall pick on former Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler. The potential reward is Plummer has his best year yet, the potential risk is that the Cutler era begins sooner rather than later.



12. Trent Green (KC) – Just call him the safe pick, 80 consecutive starts, and you can book Green for 500+ attempts and a 90+ QB rating. Green was also good for 25 or so TD’s from 2002-04, but dropped to 17 last year – much in part because Tony Gonzalez disappeared as a red-zone threat. Green drops this year as new coach Herman Edwards vows to run the ball down the oppositions throat with Larry Johnson.



13. Kurt Warner (AZ) – Warner is surrounded perhaps by possibly the best array of weapons in his career, quite a statement considering his turn-of-the-century St. Louis days. The problem is the chances of Warner lasting the year aren’t good – he’s only started 22 of a possible 48 games the last three years. A good route to go is to handcuff Warner with rookie Matt Leinart, which could be the equivalent of a top-five quarterback.



14. Drew Bledsoe (DAL) – Excuse me if every time I turned on Dallas highlights last year I kept wondering what Danny White was doing back in the league. If it was the case, Parcells could have always saved a roster space and had him punt as well. Bledsoe had a nice comeback year in 2005, throwing for 25 scores – despite having little besides TE Jason Witten and Terry Glenn and Keyshawn Johnson on weeks they decided to show up. This year Bledsoe has a new acquisition which you have probably heard about. As long as that receiver actually gets on the field that should be of some help. I have dropped Bledsoe in the rankings to the spector of Tony Romo making a serious bid for the starting job.



15. Aaron Brooks (OAK) – I think Brooks should be an excellent QB2 option this year, he always put up decent numbers with New Orleans, and now he goes to a team that always puts it up and has this Randy Moss guy who I hear is pretty good. At least he won’t be any worse than Kerry Collins. Just be aware that the Raiders are also high on second year man Andrew Walter, and he could very well get some starts late in the year.



16. Michael Vick (ATL) – As far as historical comparisons are concerned, I think of Kordell Stewart and Barry Sanders as far as Vick is concerned. Kordell because Vick appears to be following in the footsteps of not being to develop a passing game to go with his running ability. Barry comes to mind because Vick is capable of absolutely carrying you one week and killing you the next. And if Vick is banged up as he was much of last year, then the rushing yardage/TD possibilities go out the window. Vick is a good player to pick your spots with as the year progresses, just don’t look for him to carry you to a championship in Weeks 15/16.



17. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) – If not for the well-documented, near-fatal motorcycle accident, Ben would probably be a few spots higher. The good news is that it appears that Roeth will be ready for training camp and will actually appear in a celebrity golf tournament, which is nothing short of miraculous. There is also talk that the Steelers may open up the playbook a bit for Roeth this year.



18. Mark Brunell (WSH) – I call this guy everything but finished before the start of last year, but Brunell proved me dead wrong – at least on those weeks where he and Santana Moss decided to click. TE Chris Cooley as a red-zone target also helped Brunell on the way to 23 passing TD’s. Brunell should again be serviceable as a QB2 this year, with second-year QB Jason Campbell appearing to be at least a year away.



19. Brett Favre (GB) – Probably the lowest #4 has been rated in the last 14 years or so. You might even be able to find Favre on your waiver wire at some point. He won’t carry you through a season, but there will be specific weeks where Favre finds a good matchup and throws a bushel-ful of TD’s. One such game occurred v. the Saints last year, and Favre gets them at home again in Week 2 this year. Word of warning - #4 is way overdue to do down, and go down for good.



20. Byron Leftwich (JAX) – For as much hype as Byron came into the league with, early indications are he may not ever develop into anything extraordinary. Furthermore, the Jaguars appear to be a team built around the run – and have prospects, but no sure deals in the receiving corps. The sudden retirement of veteran Jimmy Smith also costs Byron his #1 safety valve. Furthermore, there are questions regarding Byron’s fitness level, as he does not exactly pass the eyeball test.



21. Phillip Rivers (SD) – Outside of practices, exhibition games, and some mop-up duty, there is really no baseline to go by - although Rivers should have a good enough supporting cast to be at least adequate this year. Good pick if you like potential upside and possible late-round steals.



22. David Carr (HOU) – It’s almost now or never for Carr, who has only thrown for 48 TD’s in 60 career starts in Houston. Carr’s cause would be helped greatly if receiver Andre Johnson can return to form. At least there is no competition for Carr’s job at this point.



23. Chris Simms (TB) – Jon Gruden has a reputation for improving quarterbacks, but at this point Simms seems to be designated as a game manager in a run-heavy offense. If Michael Clayton bounces back he and Joey Galloway wouldn’t be the worst arsenal of weapons to work for, along with second-year tight end Alex Smith.



24. Charlie Frye (CLE) – MAC Conference product completed 59 percent of his passes in five starts late last year, in the last 35 years only Ben Roethlisberger had a higher percentage as a rookie. Frye’s solidified as starter with veteran Trent Dilfer being shipped out of town. A return to health by Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow would help Frye’s cause, along with the acquisition of reliable veteran Joe Jurevicius.



25. Brad Johnson (MN) – Despite being one of the oldest starters in the league, Johnson currently has the lowest salary. There are already rumbling of a possible training camp holdout. For the first time in recent memory, the Vikings open the year with more of a game manager than a fantasy standout.



26. Billy Volek (TN) – Won some serious dough for a lot of fantasy owners with a few insane weeks late in 2004. Now V finally opens a year as starter – and has some pretty good prospects at receiver as well as tight end. Only problem is Volek is merely keeping the chair warm for some guy who I hear did pretty good in the Rose Bowl.



27. Steve McNair (BAL) – In perhaps the worst-kept secret in the history of the world, McNair was cut loose from Tennessee and immediately inked on with the Ravens. The problem is that McNair has been been listed on the injury report 28 times in the last three years. So it isn’t just the games he’s missed, but those weeks where he’s questionable where you can’t risk waiting for a GTD. And it isn’t like Baltimore has been the greatest place for QB’s over the years.



28. Rex Grossman (CHI) – Was considered a savior when he finally was able to take over for Kyle Orton late last year, but anyone is a savior compared to the likes of Orton and Craig Krenzel – two QB’s the Bears actually had to suffer with in recent years. Bad news is that Chicago has prepared for Grossman’s next catastrophic injury by bringing Brian Griese to town – who is sure to see a few starts this year.



29. Chad Pennigton (NYJ) – Seemed like the real deal just a few years ago, but shoulder problems are hampering arm strength that was already considered questionable. Pennington gets one more chance to get his two cents worth before the Jets decide to look elsewhere.



30. Matt Leinart (AZ) – Considering the Cards impressive receiving corps, I will put the former Heisman winner ahead of the last couple of projected starters. When (not if) he takes over for Warner, Leinart has a good chance of becoming at least a top-ten QB.



31. Brian Griese (CHI) – Wherever he’s gone, Griese has had stretches of brilliance, but for one reason or another can never cement a starting position. Had a 97.5 rating and 20 TD tosses in just 11 games with Tampa a couple years back, and had a sensational season with the Broncos (103 rating, 19 TD’s v 4 INT’s) early in his career. I say he gets Grossman’s job by Week 5 at the latest.



32. Jon Kitna (DET) – The hope is that the veteran could rack up lots of receiving yards with a decent receiving corps and new offensive coordinator Mike Martz calling the shots – but Kitna is also going to have to compete with the younger Josh McNown.



33. Alex Smith (SF) – Former overall #1 pick showed some improvement as his rookie year wore on, but still has miles to go. Norv Turner as the new OC should help, rookie TE Vernon Davis and his freakish talent will also give Smith something else he didn’t have last year.



34. Kelly Holcombe (BUF) – The most likely bet of an open three-man competition to be the Bills starter. Holcombe has the most experience and is the best QB. But J.P. Losman and Craig Nall will likely get starts as well during the course of the season.



35. Matt Schaub (ATL) – 15 years ago the Falcons thought they got a good deal by trading a QB prospect selected in the second round the previous year and getting a first-rounder in return. This time around the Falcons organization knows what they have on their hands and spent the off-season rebuffing several attractive trade offers. The Rams also had a fit when Schaub was selected right in front of them a few years back – had he wound up in St. Louis Schaub could be ahead of Marc Bulger by now. If Michael Vick gets hit by a bus between now and Week 1 I would elevate Schaub to somewhere around #15 on this list.



36. Josh McCown (DET) – He’s been decent, although not great in his time in Arizona. McCown will no longer have a Fitzgerald/Boldin tandem to throw to but a healthy Roy and Mike Williams shouldn’t be too bad of a downgrade – especially with Mike Martz as the OC. Jon Kitna probably starts the year, but McCown has more upside, and will definitely see some starts.



37. Kyle Boller (BAL) – I imagine there is at least one fantasy owner out there who won his fantasy championship based on Boller’s six TD tosses in Weeks 15-16. Problem is there probably weren’t too many owners who would dare play Boller by then, or they had been playing him all season and rightfully were out of the playoffs. Boller’s late season surge may end up being a turning point – although he will likely begin the season behind Steve McNair. It’s said that Boller has bulked up in the off-season and still considers himself the starter – wishful thinking but you got to like the attitude nonetheless.



38. Vince Young (TN) – Although I say he doesn’t start until about Week 12 or 13 at the earliest, the Titans are going to make sure that VY doesn’t spend his rookie year wasting on the sidelines. They are already talking about putting Young in on some situational goal-line packages. It may not be enough to merit consideration for your starting lineup, but it should help Young get his feet wet and gain much needed experience.



39. Tony Romo (DAL) – If you haven't followed him before, now is a good time to start. Was very impressive (19 for 25) in a very rare wire-to-wire pre-season appearance this year. Won the Division 1-AA equivalent of the Heisman trophy at Eastern Illinois. Is making a serious bid at Drew Bledoe's starting job, don't be surprised if he gets some spot starts.



40. Patrick Ramsey (NYJ) – What has happened to all those Tulane quarterback prospects, all of whom were supposed to be the second coming of Brett Favre. Here’s a hint, just because someone goes to school for a C-USA school on the Gulf Coast, scrambles a bit, and puts up decent numbers – doesn’t mean that they are the next Favre. That said, Ramsey steps into a pretty decent situation here considering that Chad Pennington could be on the outs. By this time next year it could be Ramsey and Kellen Clemens vying to be the Jets starter.



41. Matt Cassel (NE) – This could be one of the better kept secrets around. Cassel was hidden behind Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC, and now is behind Tom Brady with New England. Had a nice performance in New England’s season finale last year, going 11-20 with two touchdowns v. no interceptions. Cassell should be top-15 if Brady ever goes down.



42. Gus Frerotte (STL) – Rams backups always have to be looked at, especially with the frequency that Marc Bulger goes down. The journeyman Frerotte should be capable of at least holding down the fort if called upon.



43. Craig Nall (BUF) – Watching him in countless pre-season games with the Packers in recent years, I’ve come away fairly impressed with Nall’s makeup. The Bills are totally disenchanted with J.P. Losman, so I look for Nall to start the year as a solid #2 to Kelly Holcomb.



44. Anthony Wright (CIN) – Journeyman was brought on board in case Carson Palmer is not ready to start the season. Palmer would not be a bad pick since his stock is somewhat lower this year, but bringing on Wright as a handcuff gets you much needed insurance.



45. Joey Harrington (MIA) – This could be a classic example of someone who might be able to change his career around with a simple change of scenery. Joey is now a definite #2 and is no longer being counted on to be the savior of a franchise. Say what you want, but as least it’s an upgrade over Jay Fiedler.



46. Andrew Walter (OAK) – The Raiders passing up on Matt Leinart was said to be a strong endorsement over this lesser-known Pac-10 product. Marques Tuiasosopo appears to be out of chances, so Walter should be waiting in the wings at #2 behind Aaron Brooks.



47. Trent Dilfer (SF) – Veteran stopgap material just in case Alex Smith experiences some more growing pains, or becomes a complete flop.



48. David Garrard (JAX) – Considering the questions surrounding Bryon Leftwich’s durability, Garrard merits consideration. At the very least Gerrard offers running ability when he’s in the game, but not a lot of upside.



49. Aaron Rodgers (GB) – If the Packers don’t contend again this year, one has to think that the organization has to see what they have in their first-round draft pick from 2005. Rodgers will likely see some playing time at some point this year.



50. Jay Cutler (DEN) – Just call him the gift from Santa Claus. That’s the name of his hometown in Indiana. Cutler is actually a better pick for dynasty leagues, I don’t expect him to unseat Jake Plummer this year.










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