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KACSPORTS/PACKERSEDGE 2006 FANTASY RANKINGS - RUNNING BACKS



1. Larry Johnson (KC) – If you took my advice at this time last year and made LJ a mid-round pick even though he was still #2 on the depth chart, there’s a good chance you won your league championship. You’ve probably seen the projections spelled out in other publications. If you take LJ’s averages from his last nine games and projected them out to a full campaign you have a 2,400 rushing yard season and 31 TD’s, which would both be records. But perhaps a even bigger endorsement comes from NY Giants radio analyst Dick Lynch, who compared Johnson’s attributes to that of Jim Brown during a broadcast late last year. When old-timers mention anyone in the same breath as the unstoppable Brown, that should get anyone’s attention. Word from new coach Herman Edwards is that he plans to run the ball extensively this year, with backup Priest Holmes or whomever becomes the #2 back also seeing significant action. Johnson’s last nine games would also have translated in 464 carries on the year, expect that to be pared into the 400 range, however 2,000 yards and 25 TD’s are still reasonable expectations.



2. Shaun Alexander (SEA) – If you’re drafting #2 this year, it’s not bad to have someone coming off a year in which someone who scored 28 times while flirting with 2,000 yards sitting in this position. With Shaun one also gets the benefits of a player with six games v. the run-challenged NFC West. Of course you have to live with the Madden jinx this year with Shaun, but those who wind up on that cover are usually just off a career year and have nowhere to go but down. Considering Alexander is now 29 and has the big money contract, there could be at least a slight dropoff. I imagine Larry Johnson gets the Madden 2008 cover.



3. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) – Last year’s consensus #1 pick checks in at #3 on almost all boards. LT’s track record also includes a minimum of 15 scores in each of the last four seasons. But even after sustaining an injury in Week 12 that the time didn’t disclose the full severity of, there were red flags. There was the slow start with only 124 total yards (none receiving) in Weeks 1 and two plus an outing in Philadelphia where he was held to seven yards on 17 carries. Also backup Michael Turner proved his worth spelling LT down the stretch in ’05, so you may see Tomlinson with a somewhat lighter workload this time around. But if LT’s value has slipped, it isn’t by much.



4. Ronnie Brown (MIA) – Is climbing up a lot of draft boards pre-training camp, especially with Ricky Williams suspended for the year and not exactly lighting up the joint (no pun intended) in the CFL. Brown’s first four games of 2005 (when Ricky was also suspended) would translate into a 1,200 yard rushing season. You would had liked to see more than five TD’s, but that should improve, especially with QB Daunte Culpepper and an improved team in general around him. Brown is the present and the future for the Dolphins, now he just has to prove he can carry an entire workload.



5. Tiki Barber (NYG) – There are reasons to not consider Tiki, he’s 31 and the Giants like to pull him near the goal-line. But then you have to consider five+ yards per carry and a career best yardage total that flirted with nearly 2,400 yards, which in most leagues takes the pain out of scoring ‘only’ 11 times. 200+ yard rushing games in both Weeks 15 and 17 helped propel teams in many playoff formats. This certainly looks anything but a case where the end is near, Barber makes an excellent mid first-round choice.



6. Clinton Portis (WSH) – I’ve been down on Portis the last two years, saying that his trade from the Broncos and into the rugged NFC East hurt his fantasy value. But Portis had a sensational second half last year rushing for nearly 900 yards and seven scores. Now comes veteran offensive coordinator Al Saunders from Kansas City, whose MO is to have his teams run the ball extensively. Divisional games will remain tough, and you would like to see Portis score a bit more. I've lowered Portis slightly due to his recent shoulder injury, and trading a first-day 2007 pick for T.J. Duckett tells me the injury might be a little more serious.



7. Rudi Johnson (CIN) – After the top-six on this board, Rudi is probably the safest bet from the rest of the field. The last two seasons have seen Rudi rush a shade over 1,450 yards along with 12 TD’s in each season. Another plus is durability, Rudi is one of only four backs in the league to start every game the last two seasons. One cause for a possible downturn is that the team really likes third-year back Chris Perry, and he could get some more carries this year. As long as Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense remains intact I do not see any real reason for a letdown for someone at age 26 on a contending outfit.



8. Cadillac Williams (TB) – Started his rookie year like a house on fire, beating some 1987 scab for having the most yardage in his first three games than any player in history. Then Williams struggled with moderate injury problems while Michael Pittman picked up the slack. Still, the final numbers (1,178 rushing yards/4.1 avg.) was very acceptable. Cadillac is every bit as good as his former Auburn running mate Ronnie Brown, but gets downgraded slightly since Pittman is still very much in the picture.



9. Steven Jackson (STL) – The first of a few third year rushers who come into the year off somewhat of a sophomore slump. But despite being banged up at times as well as underutilized, Jackson still racked up 1,366 yards along with ten scores. Early reports out of camp say the team will focus on the run much more with the new coaching regime With Marshall Faulk all but done, Jackson could conservatively flirt with 1,500 rushing yards this year. If you felt burned by drafting him in ’05, don’t left that keep you from taking him again this year.



10. Edgerrin James (AZ) – You can make a convincing argument either pro or con regarding Edgerrin this year. On his side will be the fact that he will be set in an offense with plenty of other explosives around him. On the downside is that the 2005 Cardinals offense ranked 1028th out of 1029 teams since 1970 in rushing yards. You can blame last years backs, but you also have to blame the offensive line as well. Edge still ranks among the elite backs who is unchallenged as starter, but there are unknown factors.



11. Brian Westbrook (PHI) – You don’t think of Westbrook (5’8” 203) as an every down back, but the Eagles say he will carry the load this year. If you projected his 11+ games worth of work last year you would have ended up with around 1,800 total yards. Westbrook also finds the end zone more than you would think, 27 TD’s in 40 career games. Also a very good pick to a sheer statistical league where receiving yards are a category.



12. LaMont Jordan (OAK) – He wears #34, a great number in the history of Raiders football. However Jordan doesn’t exactly bring back memories of Bo Jackson for me personally. He comes a little too short, and a little too squatty – to pass the eyeball test with me. Furthermore his first-year numbers in Oakland were a dissapointment, with his rushing average dropping from 5.2 the year before in part-time duty with the Jets, to 3.8. The only saving grace was that he caught 70 passes out of the backfield. Word out of the Bay Area this year is to expect much more running, and less receiving – from Jordan.



13. Reggie Bush (NO) – Signed, sealed, and delivered as of July 30th. Did you really expect him to sit on the $5 million he's making for plugging NCAA07 and what not - and go into next year's draft??? I didn't think so neither. Bush is ranked lower than this on most draft boards. But the reality is that if you drafted strictly by this board you probably will not land Bush. Someone in your league will take the chance on Bush as one of the first 40-50 selections on the board - and Bush may very well still be a bargain. This may be your lone opportunity to get this freakish talent 'cheap' - for at this time next year we could be talking about Bush as a top-five overall pick.



14. Willis McGahee (BUF) – Famous last words, last October McGahee proclaimed himself as the best running back in the league, which was a pretty heavy statement although he was having a good year at that point. In the second half however, Willis averaged a meager 3.3 yards per carry and only scored once – In fact McGahee is not especially stout punching it in short-yardage situations. Add to the mix that the Bills offensive line doesn’t look any better and McGahee’s off-season attitude wasn’t the greatest, and you have a very risky situation for this year.



15. Kevin Jones (DET) – Was supposed to be one of the breakout stars of 2005, no one however saw him regressing a couple of spots last year. But it seemed like everything around him imploded last year – the hope is that Mike Martz as offensive coordinator will be of help to everyone, including Jones.



16. Julius Jones (DAL) – One disappointing Jones from last year sometimes deserves another. Jones found himself on the sideline with lingering injuries for much of last year, during which time rookie Marion Barber made himself way too much of a factor.



17. Reuben Droughns (CLE) – Good news, Droughns is an undisputed #1 back and sees a lot of carries. The bad news, Droughns crossed the stripe only twice last year and isn’t much of a factor in the receiving game. The Browns offensive line got an immediate blow on the first day of camp when pricey free-agent pick-up Charles LeBentley suffered a season-ending injury.



18. Chester Taylor (MN) – 4 year, 14 million dollar contract says that Chester will finally get his crack at being an NFL featured back. Spelling Jamal Lewis at times last year, Taylor was good but not spectacular averaging just over 4 yards per carry. One hope is that the Vikings will lean on one back in the new coaching regime, but Brad Childress was involved in a RBBC operation in Philadelphia. Nonetheless, Taylor should be a good pick for salary-cap style games where his salary should be minimal.



19. Warrick Dunn (ATL) – If you like high-volume yards and a great average, Dunn is your guy – rushing for over 1,400 yards and a nice 5.1 average last year. The downside is no goal-line carries and there are some games during the season where WD is simply not part of the game plan. As is the case with Michael Vick, it’s up to you to figure the weeks where Dunn will come up big. The trade of T.J. Duckett increases Dunn's rating slightly, although rookie Jerious Norwood may actually be an upgrade as a #2.



20. DeShaun Foster (CAR) – He’s been good in the amount of time he’s been able to stay upright in Carolina. Problem is Foster has about lost his chance to be a featured back with the Panthers. Foster will be fighting with rookie DeAngelo Williams for playing time, and Williams and Eric Shelton appear to be the best goal-line bets. Best case scenario has Foster being about the same as Willie Parker.



21. Frank Gore (SF) – Is on a lot of sleeper lists, and appears on the rise even more with Kevan Barlow out of town. Durability and a shaky O-line are the remaining concerns.



22. Corey Dillon (NE) – Rushing production fell sharply in an injury-plauged 2005 season, although 12 touchdowns were a saving grace. The fact that the Patriots also drafted Laurence Maroney does not bode well long-term. That said, Dillon seems to have gotten wiser in his old age, and has hired a personal trainer for the first time. I wouldn’t write off Dillon by any means.



23. Tatum Bell (DEN) – No one plays poker regarding a running back depth chart quite like Mike Shanahan. True, Tatum is sitting once again as a change-of-pace #2 back. I will still rate Bell ahead of any Bronco back because he's the best bet to rack up 800-900 yards over an eight game period. You're not making this pick for Week 1, more for later on in the season.



24. Willie Parker (PIT) – While Tatum Bell is a great upside pick, what you see from Willie is basically what your going to get. But if that’s 1,200 yards rushing, that isn’t bad for a RB3. Just don’t look for Willie to get the goal-line touches because Jerome Bettis is gone. The Steelers will find someone, anyone – to handle that load.



25. Thomas Jones (CHI) – His 2005 numbers were just fine, 1,359 rushing yards, a 4.3 average – and nine scores. But Jone-sy already had enough to worry about second-year man Cedric Benson without getting hurt during his enterance physical.



26. Jamal Lewis (BAL) – Has about the worst numbers of any starting back last year, but you have to cut at least some slack since jail wasn’t exactly the best place for an off-season conditioning program. Veteran Mike Anderson comes on board as insurance, but Lewis still appears to be the rest the Ravens got – expect improved but not great numbers.



27. Fred Taylor (JAX) – Greg Jones' season-ending injury keeps Taylor as the starter for now. Fred has been good but not spectacular in pre-season. Rookie Maurice Drew should factor in at some point.



28. Mike Bell (DEN) – I would say Mike Shanahan's announcement on the undrafted rookie from Arizona being his #1 back would be shocking news, but nothing out of Shanahan shocks me anymore. If you draft Bell, don't expect him to carry the load for the entire season, just so you don't be surprised when Bell plows for a couple of two-yard gains early in Week 5, then Shanny turns to Cedric Cobbs who goes 18-95 with two TD's. Expect the unexpected.



29. Joseph Addai (IND) – Call this an upside pick. The race between the LSU rookie and veteran Dominic Rhodes appears to be too close to call, and the two could definitely split carries. But Blue Horseshoe hasn’t traditionally featured RBBC, so follow the pre-season developments closely. If Addai wins the job he could be very comparable to Edgerrin James in past years.



30. Wali Lundy (HOU) – Why fantasy players need something more current than the supermarket magazines. It appears that starter Domanick Davis is out for the first six weeks of the season, and could even be cut from the team. This sixth-round draft pick currently has the upper hand over Vernand Morancy to open the year as Houston's starter - but neither is a high-quality pick at this point.



31. Deuce McAllister (NO) – Projecting that he is 100 percent recovered from a torn ACL, Deuce figures to at least be still good for at least some use, even if Reggie Bush is in the fold. Look for some carries along with goal-line duty, the workload would increase with a prolonged Bush holdout.



32. Travis Henry (TN) – A 1,350 yard rusher a few years back in Buffalo, Henry has been named Tennessee's starter despite a less-than-stellar pre-season. Not highly recommended though because he not likely to start long and the Titans in general are a mess.



33. Kevan Barlow (NYJ) – Recently traded to replace the injured Curtis Martin, and kind of a band-aid acquisition for the Jets. Barlow's upside remains limited.



34. Samkon Gado (GB) – We now reach the end of the projected starting backs, although the free agent find is mostly there by default. Veterans Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport appear to be far from being ready to contribute. Gado is the likely opening day starter, but look for Green Bay to also scour the free agent wire.



35. Dominic Rhodes (IND) – You may remember Rhodes going nuts after taking over for an injured Edgerrin James, however that was five long years ago – the majority of backs on this board now were not even around. Reconstructive knee surgery are among the challenges Rhodes had to deal with since. Use him for the first four weeks or so then find a trade suitor.



36. Ahman Green (GB) – Word out of Green Bay is that Green should be ready at some point during the pre-season. Even before joining all the other skill position players on the injured list last year, Green’s production had fallen off significantly.



37. LenDale White (TN) – If Chris Brown indeed is on the outs, LenDale could get a fantastic opportunity as a rookie. However LenDale did not impress in his pre-draft workouts and also fell short in the character department. But it wasn’t like he was all that horrible at USC.



38. DeAngelo Williams (CAR) – Outside of Reggie Bush, DeAngelo probably ranks #2 among the running backs who came out this year. The downside is that for the moment DeShaun Foster serves as a semi road-block. Should DeShaun get hurt DeAngelo could become a top #15 back easily.



39. Marion Barber (DAL) – His averages last year were the same as Julius Jones, but got the same number of scores (five). In the late season games Barber got much of the short-yardage work so it is possible that he could be nearly as valuable as J. Jones even if both are healthy.



40. MeWelde Moore (MN) – Unfortunately the Saints don’t show up on Minnesota’s schedule this year, that is the team MeMoore has feasted on the last two years. That said, Moore could very well beat out Chester Taylor as the starting back. However Moore does not and will not get the rock near the goal-line.



41. Laurence Maroney (NE) – Three years from now, it could well be Maroney who winds up being the best non-Bush back from this draft. For now however, Maroney will have to earn the respect of coach Bill Belichick. This is probably a better selection for 2007 and beyond than for this year.



42. Cedric Benson (CHI) – This pick could go either way, Thomas Jones could get hurt and Cedric the Entertainer could become a top-15 back. Or Benson could fall behind Adrian Peterson to #3 on the depth chart. What is known is that whoever starts for Chicago in any given week should be a good choice. .



43. Michael Turner (SD) – Anyone doubting the Burner’s talents coming out of Northern Illinois a few years back have to be re-evaluating that though process right about now. You would like to see how he would do with a heavy workload, Turner never got more than eight carries in any one game. However that 5.9 average still looks pretty spiffy. Should LT go down Turner could well become not just a top-15, but top-10 back.



44. Michael Pittman (TB) – Hard to believe he didn’t get more than 70 carries last year, but by averaging 6.2 a crack Pittman still made plenty of highlight reels. Problem is that touchdown vulture Mike Alstott is still in town – Alstott had six scores last year to Pittman’s one.



45. Chris Brown (TN) – It's been a typical pre-season for Chris Brown, problems with injuries and threatening to leave camp. Unless he gets a trade his value can't be too high.



46. Chris Perry (CIN) – After redshirting his rookie season, Perry showed he’s more than capable of playing in this league, averaging 4.6 a crack in limited action. Chances of Perry playing are not good behind the durable Rudi Johnson, but Perry will fly off the waiver wire immediately should Rudi go down.



47. Jerious Norwood (ATL) – . Norwood wasn’t talked about much on draft day or during his Mississippi St. career, but he’s been clocked at 4.33, one of the fastest times at the combine. Recent trade of T.J. Duckett speaks volumes as to Norwood's future in the Atlanta organization.



48. Cedric Houston (NYJ) – With Curtis Martin running on fumes, Houston should be a fine late-round pick just on the basis of him becoming a featured back at some point this season is very good. Just don’t expect much more than what you’ve been seeing with Martin the last couple of years.



49. Najeh Davenport (GB) – Has proven he can be a featured back in this league, but just can’t seem to stay healthy for more than one start. Still Najeh is still on the upside of his career and his broken ankle should be easier to recover from than Ahman Green’s quad.



50. Maurice Drew (JAX) – If all goes well, Drew could find himself battling with Greg Jones to be the starting back by year’s end. You could also get a bonus with Drew possibly returning kicks – he took six to the house during his UCLA career. Just keep him away from the nerd on the wi-fi at Waffle House at three in the morning.



51. Derrick Blaylock (NYJ) – A lot of people have wanted to see what Blaylock could do handling the load, he was good enough to literally keep Larry Johnson in diapers in Kansas City. You would imagine that he will get a shot at least at some point in 2006, although third-down specialist might end up being his best role.



52. Mike Anderson (BAL) – I don’t look for him to have it nearly as good as in Denver. But with the loss of production out of Jamal Lewis the last few years, Anderson could get yet another shot.



53. T. J. Duckett (WSH) – Trade to Washington means Duckett is a definite #2 behind Clinton Portis. But move T.J. back up if it appears that Portis will be sidelined into the regular season



54. Duce Staley (PIT) – Don’t think of him as he was even just a few years ago. The hope here is that Staley takes over Jerome Bettis’ role as a goal-line back.



55. Brandon Jacobs (NYG) – A smashing disappointment as a rookie but Big Blue likes goal-line backs. Still, you’ve got to do better than 2.6 a carry.



56. Brian Calhoun (DET) – His stock fell leading up to draft day, but Calhoun was such a stud at Wisconsin last year that declaring was a no-brainer for him. Mike Martz should be able to make some use out of Calhoun in upcoming seasons.



57. Vernand Morency (HOU) – With Domanick Davis' injury woes, Morency is in play in a possible committee with sixth round rookie Wali Lundy. The 2005 third-round pick is looked at more as a third-down receiving type.



58. Maurice Morris (SEA) – Has done good, but not spectacular – when filling in for Shaun Alexander. Not a consideration unless SA goes down.







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