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KACSPORTS/PACKERSEDGE 2006 FANTASY RANKINGS - TIGHT ENDS/KICKERS



1. Antonio Gates (SD) – Despite missing the first game after a lenghty holdout last year, Gates actually improved his insane numbers, catching nearly 90 passes at 12 yards per pop. The off-season concern was that Gates might regress with untested Philip Rivers at quarterback, but if you watched the Chargers first exhibition game, you will quickly find that won’t be the case. Throw position scarcity into the equation, and you will not be overdoing it drafting Gates anytime in the third-round in a typical 12-team league.



2. Jeremy Shockey (NYG) – A tentative #2 right now, as Shockey did have a concussion problem early in camp. Shockey became much more of a vertical threat in 2005, improving from 10.9 to 13.7 yards per catch, including four plays of 30 yards or more. Has quickly earned the trust as Eli Manning's security blanket



3. Tony Gonzalez (KC) – Ranked even lower on some cheat sheets, but who thought we’d see the day Gonzo being ranked even this low barring an extenuating circumstance. Reasons for Gonzalez being ranked low include only scoring twice last year as Larry Johnson now gets most of the red-zone scores. Tight ends also traditionally don’t produce in Herman Edwards-led offense. Even with all that said, I look at Gonzalez as a good buy low candidate.



4. Jason Witten (DAL) – After nearly catching 90 catches in his second season, Witten’s numbers dropped slightly in 2005, but was still a good play. Terrell Owens arrival might open things up for Witten, but could also make him a little less a part of the offense.



5. Todd Heap (BAL) – After a couple of injury-marred campaigns, Heap caught 75 passes for 855 yards and seven scores, as just the semi-development of Kyle Boller did wonders. With veteran Steve McNair now behind center, Heap could pick it up even more. About the only Raven I even remotely like in fantasy.



6. Chris Cooley (WSH) – Because he’s listed as a H-back, in some leagues he was eligible as both a running back and tight end. Cooley has never had a rushing attempt however, so I don’t see him retaining that eligibility. Still, Cooley emerged big time as 7’s were lucky, 71 catches, 774 yards, 7 scores. The Skins have beefed up offensively in the off-season, the question now is whether Cooley gets a bigger of lesser piece of the action.



7. Alge Crumpler (ATL) – Alge’s value is a little higher in statistical leagues that reward yards per catch. Crumpler has always seemd to be Michael Vick’s lone target throughout his career.



8. Randy McMichael (MIA) – His numbers dropped somewhat last year, but the hope here is that McMichael will pick it up again with a healthy Daunte Culpepper under center. However McMichael has also been an enigma and has found off-the-field trouble in the past. McMichael is usually the Amazing Randy early in the season, only to fizzle later on.



9. L.J. Smith (PHI) – One of my sleepers for this season, as pre-Terrell Owens it was always the tight end that got a major piece of the action from Donovan McNabb. As it was last year LJS caught 60 passes, now he should be a Chad Lewis with more athleticism. If you notice a trend, you really can’t go wrong with any NFC East tight end.



10. Vernon Davis (SF) – It’s always tough to rank a raw rookie this high, especially in a offense that hasn’t produce in recent years. But if you follow the NFL Draft scene at all, you need no introduction to the paranormal workout numbers Davis had at the pre-draft workouts, surpassing numbers such as Tony Gonzalez, Kellen Winslow II and Jeremy Shockey of years past. Outside of Reggie Bush, Davis should very well be a top impact skill position player this year. One red flag though, Davis is reported struggling trying to get a grasp of the 49ers playbook.



11. Ben Troupe (TN) – His stock is a little lower than he would be if still with the Chargers, or if he hadn’t gotten hurt in a meaningless Week 17 game last year. All of that said, Brees steps into a situation where Aaron Brooks had always done reasonably well – and there is also a particular #2 overall draftpick who can always bail out Brees with a 70-yard TD off a screen play at any moment. Despite having precious little besides Antonio Gates in his receiving corps, Brees accounted for 54 TD’s the last two years.



12. Kellen Winslow (CLE) – Many still have Winslow as a top-ten tight end going into this year, but K2 is going to have to prove to me that he is truly back. When a player misses not just one, but two years with two different serious injuries, more often than not they do not make it totally back. Still at some point Winslow is definitely worth consideration, this is a case where the pre-season really does bare monitoring.



13. Alex Smith (TB) – You don’t hear much about this second year player, but he deserves consideration in fantasy drafts before the other Alex Smith, after catching 41 catches his rookie year. Smith should really be a bargain in salary-cap type games where he can be had at next to nothing.



14. Ben Watson (NE) – The Patriots always feature the tight end, and a lot – the only problem for fantasy purposes is that there are multiple TE’s in the mix including Daniel Graham and rookies Garrett Mills and Dave Thomas. Myself I feel Watson is a little too high on some draft boards.



15. Heath Miller (PIT) – If the rookie year is any indication, Heath is definitely on track to becoming a top-10 tight end. However the best thing that could happen to Miller’s career would be if Bill Cowher really does leave. Cowher offenses historically do not feature the tight end. Anything above 50 catches will be a bonus.



16. Dallas Clark (IND) – For a couple of years I’ve had Dallas Clark as a monster waiting to happen, but now I have to rethink that position. True Dallas is in a dream offense and will make a couple of big plays this year (probably v. the Texans), but the real truth is that the tight end is not an integral part of the Peyton Manning offense, and when it is involved, it could be Bryan Fletcher or Ben Utecht who is just as likely to score.



17. Jermaine Wiggins (MN) – A good fill-in player, Wiggins has chalked up 700 yards and 70 catches the last two season. Jim ‘I was abducted by a’ Kleinsasser, is back from injury – but doesn’t figure to be much of a factor.



18. Leonard Pope (AZ) – I call this guy everything but finished before the start of last year, but Brunell proved me dead wrong – at least on those weeks where he and Santana Moss decided to click. TE Chris Cooley as a red-zone target also helped Brunell on the way to 23 passing TD’s. Brunell should again be serviceable as a QB2 this year, with second-year QB Jason Campbell appearing to be at least a year away.



19. Marcus Pollard (DET) – A solid top-ten or even top-five TE in his prime, Pollard is now limited at this point, although he serves as a bye week fill-in. Another case against Pollard is that tight ends don’t get a huge piece of the action in Mike Martz offenses.



20. Jeb Putzier (HOU) – After two decent, but not eye-popping seasons in Denver – Putzier now follows Gary Kubiak to Houston. There’s some, but not a significant upside.



21. Marcedes Lewis (JAX) – Currently behind Kyle Brady on the depth chart, but Brady is strictly a blocker, so eventually Lewis should see time in passing situations. Myself, I thought Marcedes was a little overhyped at UCLA, but he does have a chance to be a factor.



22. Daniel Graham (NE) – Graham is a talent, and has been a red-zone target in the past – catching seven touchdowns in just 30 receptions a couple years back. But save Graham for next year when he’s likely with another team, there’s just too many bodies in New England.



23. Zach Hilton (NO) – At about 6’8” 270 he is about as big as a hotel – and was a mild find catching 32 passes for 373 yards in the Saints final eight games last year. But word is that Hilton might not be a good fit in new coach Sean Payton’s offense and Hilton has been working with the scrubini’s early in camp. You may be able to wait this out and puck Hilton off the waiver wire early on if needed.



24. Joe Klopfenstein (STL) – He and fellow rookie Dominique Byrd will battle to be the Rams starting tight end this fall. It looks like St. Louis will feature the tight end a lot, so this is a position battle to watch.



25. Jerramy Stevens (SEA) – The good news is that Stevens actually hasn’t been arrested the last two years, even better news was that he finally displaced Itula Mili as the starting tight end. But as of this writing Stevens had sustained a knee injury in camp, and is likely to miss the first month of the season.




KICKER RANKINGS


1. Neil Rackers (AZ) – This is all you need to know about the kicking position for fantasy purposes. Rackers was not even on the fantasy radar kicker for the lowly Bengals a few years back. That all changed last year, where Rackers exploded for 140 on the heels of a team that constantly stalled in the red zone. With the Cards offense likely improved, don’t look for as many opportunities this year. Still, great offense, desert, indoors, I don’t see Rack slipping much.



2. Adam Vinatieri (IND) – Apparently tired of kicking clutch field goals in the harshest of conditions, Vinatieri lands in fantasy heaven in Indy. You could argue that Blue Horseshoe’s offense is so good that it will leave Vinatieri with nothing but a bunch of extra points – but that would be nitpicking. AV should be the most reliable choice on the board.



3. Shayne Graham (CIN) – Again, Graham didn’t come into the league as a big-time prospect – starting off with a cup of coffee in Carolina. Now Graham has had two solid seasons under his belt averaging more than 125 points and hitting 87 percent of his attempts. The Bengals offensive proficiency should ensure continued production out of Graham.



4. Jason Elam (DEN) – You have a solid baseline of 120 points or so per season for over a decade now. Elam’s leg might not be as powerful these days, but until NFL footballs start getting placed in a humidor that shouldn’t be much of a factor.



5. John Kasay (CAR) – Scoring 120+ points in two of the last three seasons keeps Kasay among the elite among fantasy kickers. That is offset somewhat by the fact that he has missed time with injuries in four of the last seven seasons.



6. Mike Vanderjagt (DAL) – Conspiracy theories exist that Vandy purposely yipped his potential game-tying FG in the playoffs just to screw his buddy Peyton Manning just one more time. Meanwhile I’m not sure if Dallas will exactly be the best place for Vanderjagt, when he blows a game there who wrings his neck out first, Bill Parcells, Drew Bledsoe, or Terrell Owens??? That said Vandy’s decline in points the last two years was mainly a product of the Colts offense being too good – Vandy was 23-25 in FG attempts last year.



7. Jeff Reed (PIT) – Defending Super Bowl champions, good but not great offense – Reed seems like a perfect selection. Not the most accurate kicker in the world and gets hurt somewhat by his own park. But 120 points sounds like a very good proposition.



8. Josh Brown (SEA) – Decent kicker with a very good offense working behind him. Has been in the 110 point range in each of the last three years, which makes for a very solid baseline and a known quantity.



9. David Akers (PHI) – You should be able to get Akers for a bit of a discount this year, whether it be in a draft or a CDM Challenge-like game. The injury bug that seemingly struck the entire Eagle team also got to Akers as well, causing him to miss a few games. Akers had been ranked around 2-3 in recent years, and a lot of games in the NFC East Group of Death should come down to FG’s, which should enhance #2’s value.



10. Jay Feely (NYG) – A perfect example of how unpredictable projecting fantasy kickers are. Feely was unable to crack a mere 100 points in his final two years indoors in the A-T-L, and there was no reason to expect him to fare even as good in the windy Meadowlands. So what happens??? Despite a maligned season including three critical misses in Seattle, Feely ends leading the league with 148 points. Feely will probably be overvalued in most drafts, but if you lower your expectations to the 110-120 point range and Feely is still available at this point, go for it.



11. Lawrence Tynes (KC) – We know, the Chiefs tend to finish off drives giving the kicker nothing but extra points. There is the worry that the Chiefs offense will become Jet-like conservative under Herman Edwards, but I don’t see a huge dropoff from Tynes’ 125 pint effort from last year.



12. Nate Kaeding (SD) – Like some Chargers on the fantasy draft board, Kaeding’s ranking is lowered somewhat because everyone is convinced Philip Rivers is going to stink it up. And some still have that playoff miss fresh in their minds. Now work through that and realize that Kaeding has hit 84 percent of his attempts and has scored 110+ points in each of his first two seasons and a mild climate to work from – there isn’t much not to like.



13. Jeff Wilkins (STL) – Kind of the Bret Saberhagen of placekickers, here is Wilkins point totals over his nine year Ram career, 107, 85, 124, 89, 127, 94, 163, 89, 117. You would think that the double-whammy of an even-numbered year and a more conservative offense should doom Wilkins this year. But I would take my chances with a dome kicker late in fantasy drafts.



14. Matt Bryant (TB) – Don’t let the fact that Bryant has bounced around the league like something out of a pawn shop bother you. In fact, Bryant used to work in a pawn shop – which is as good a place as any to find an NFL kicker. Bryant seems to have found a home in Tampa after going 21-25 last year, and is working with a contending team. Bryant will also be a terrific option in the CDM Challenge game.



15. Matt Stover (BAL) – Has been in the league so long that he actually got away with eating a hot dog on the bench during a pre-season game last year. The Ravens offense is never the greatest but Stover has 113 points or more in six of the last seven seasons.



16. Stephen Gostowski (NE) – Who will be the biggest fantasy impact rookie this year – Reggie Bush?? Vernon Davis?? Stephen Gostowski?? Sounds more like a one of these things do not belong deal from Sesame Street. Now get past the fact that Gostowski is a rookie and realize that he is first in line for Adam Vinatieri’s old job. Well OK, Gostowski still has to beat out Martin Gramatica, but how would a Gramatica/Bill Belichick marriage work. Probably about as good as Belichick and whatever broad he just dumped. If the Pats did decide to go with Gramatica while stashing Gostowski on IR, I would not give Martin a very high endorsement.



17. Michael Koenen (ATL) – You won’t see Koenen in many of the pre-season magazines, and if you do they will tell you about the death struggle he will be in with someone named Tony Yelk in camp. Well forget about it, Koenen went 4-4 in the Falcons first pre-season game, including a last-minute game-winner. All four attempts were from at least 40 yards, including a 50-yarder. Koenen then nailed a 51-yarder the following week in Green Bay that would had been good from at least 60. True, Yelk simply didn’t get a chance but I never heard anything about the NFL being fair.



18. John Hall (WSH) – The last kicker from the NFC East Group of Death. Hall should be a good choice for salary cap games because he has missed much of the last two years with injuries. On the down side Hall can always get injured again.



19. Olindo Mare (MIA) – Are the Florida Marlins really about to move??? It wouldn’t be a day too soon for Mare, who always seems to miss off the infield dirt early in the season. Mare’s accuracy actually started to come back last year and the Dolphins are a team on the rise. Another plus, it’s been a quiet hurricane season thus far.



20. Josh Scobee (JAX) – If his accuracy was any better or the Jags had any semblance of an offense, I would feel a little better about Scobee. The biggest plus right now is that Scobee is without competition in camp.



21. Sabastian Janikowski (OAK) – While we’re at it, how is that A’s stadium situation going??? Seabass can’t hit off of infield dirt neither. In fact Seabass had trouble kicking off of anything last year going 20-30. And this year may not be a bargain later as the Raiders don’t look like the best team in the world. On the plus side, Seabass’s job seems to be secure through everything, including his annual all-night bender. Al would never want to admit that the first round draft choice was really a mistake.



22. Ryan Longwell (MN) – In the local paper a couple years back, Longwell talked about loyalty and being a Packer for his entire career. So much for that idea, traitor. But it wasn’t like Longwell was getting plenty of opportunities in the ice box in Green Bay. Now if nothing else, at least Longwell is indoors on a decent team in a weak division.



23. Robbie Gould (CHI) – Not highly regarded, many still haven’t heard of Gould – and if they have it’s because of that wind-blown attempt last year that ended up landing somewhere near Gary. If the Bears offense could even improve a little Gould could be a decent but not spectacular option.



24. Rian Lindell (BUF) – Automatically gets struck out of consideration in most leagues because he’s on a lousy team in the leagues trickiest climate. But if you need a kicker in the last round remember Lindell has scored 113 and 117 points the last two years.



25. Jason Hanson (DET) – It seems like he’s been in the league forever and looks about 50 but is really still only 36. Dome kickers always have to get some level of consideration, but Hanson has not scored more than 101 points in any year this decade.



26. John Carney (NO) – Even in last year’s absolute train wreck of a season, Carney still almost flirted with 100 points. The team appears to be improved and Carney will be back indoors fulltime this season – and does not appear to have competition in camp.



27. Phil Dawson (CLE) – About the best thing the Browns have had going the last two seasons, which tells you about all you need to know about the state of the franchise. Dawson has hit 100 on the nose the last two seasons, and was 27-29 in FGA’s last year, a great accomplishment anywhere but especially noteworthy in Cleveland.



28. Kris Brown (HOU) – Despite the Texans going 2-14 last year, Brown did manage to score 102 points. The bad news is Brown is as inconsistent as ever, including one miss so bad that many wondered if he missed on purpose so Houston could secure the #1 pick in the 2006 Draft. It isn’t like he can blame the wind anymore.



29. Rob Bironas (TN) – I guess the Gary Anderson era really is over, as Bironas had a steady, albeit unspectacular year on a bad team. Anything over 100 points would be a bonus.



30. Joe Nedney (SF) – The fact that Nedney actually stayed healthy the entire year was a miracle enough. Hitting 26 of 28 field goals playing half his games at Candlestick should have got him a Pro Bowl berth. The Niners may be improved, but Nedney keeping his health and accuracy may be another matter.



31. Mike Nugent (NYJ) – He was going to be my 1.00 bargain in CDM last year, no one told me that the Jets were about to take the biggest dive of anyone this side of Green Bay. Nugent was a respectable 22-28 in FGA’s last year, so he could be an option if the team improves.



32. Dave Rayner (GB) – The Packers chose to not to pay for Ryan Longwell anymore, which makes perfect sense considering the team has holes everywhere else. The team has already gotten rid of Billy Cundiff, so Rayner appears to have won the job. However if you have to depend on the Fossilman too much this season your team could soon find itself to be extinct.







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