Jimmie Johnson (#48/Hendrick) – Coming off three consecutive championships, where else would he open the season ranked??? Don't be surprised if he starts the season slow though – last year Johnson started by going 27th, 2nd, 29th, 13th, and 18th.
Kyle Busch (#18/Gibbs) – He melted down in Dallas Cowboys fashion in the post-season in 2008, but still put together one of the best seasons in stock car racing history, winning 21 races in all competitions. Kyle definitely has the energy to do it, but if he just cut a little slack off his Nationwide and Truck Series schedules, it would pay dividends on the Cup side come September through November.
Carl Edwards (#99/Roush) – An early penalty for failing inspection put Edwards behind the 8-ball early in '08, but it didn't take long for the #99 to establish himself as one of the cars to beat on a weekly basis. His clash with Kyle Busch at Bristol Motor Speedway helped turn Kyle's season around in a bad way, and Edwards ruffled more feathers by instigating a wreck in the fall Talladega race, leading to a garage scuffle with Kevin Harvick days later. It was that Talladega wreck along with a bad finish in Charlotte a week later that kept Edwards from having a legitimate chance at catching Jimmie Johnson for the championship. Like him or not, he is sure fueling some rivalries and has become the class of the Roush garage.
Greg Biffle (#16/Roush) – There is a bit of a gap from the top three drivers down to the other contenders. Biffle made himself an instant threat to win the 2008 Championship by winning the first two races of the 10-race Chase, ultimately finishing third in the standings. Biffle also finished second for the Championship in 2005, but has only been 17th, 13th, and 14th the other three seasons. Older than many think at age 39, Biffle is more veteran than 'young gun' at this point – smart money says he will be in the Chase mix.
Matt Kenseth (#17/Roush) – Earlier in the decade Kenseth was winning races left and right, until he won the 2003 Championship despite only winning one race that entire season. Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson are the only two drivers to participate in the Chase in each of the last five seasons, and Kenseth proved after a shaky start last year that he could indeed be a factor without longtime crew chief Robbie Reiser. Now Matt has to turn some of those top-5's and top-tens into wins, especially in the post-season.
Denny Hamlin (#11/Gibbs) – I am higher on Hamlin this year than most. It's easy to forget that Hamlin was simply on fire last spring, winning at Martinsville, then recording three more top-5's before completely dominating a race at Richmond before some late race misfortune that seemed to set the tone for the remainder of the campaign. With Tony Stewart now departed, Hamlin is now suddenly the elder statesman in the Joe Gibbs garage.
Jeff Gordon (#24/Hendrick) – For the first time since 1993, the entire NASCAR schedule was run without the #24 car making it to Victory Lane. Does that mean that Gordon's career is now running on fumes??? Not necessarily, like most drivers not named Johnson, Kyle, or Carl, Gordon was one of many top drivers who had solid weeks but didn't quite have what it takes to close the deal. Just remember that as recently as 2007 Gordon finished second in the standings, falling only to the onslaught of wins by teammate Jimmie Johnson.
Mark Martin (#5/Hendrick) – Seeking one final shot of at his elusive season title, the 50-year old Martin signed a one-year deal to become the Hendrick's fourth car this year. Even driving for a deteriorating operation at DEI last year, Martin was still a solid top-15 drivers in most races he ran. Look for at least a win or two – and perhaps a final top-five finish for the season, but will fall short of a fairy-tale ending.
Kevin Harvick (#29/RCR) – Believe it or not, the 2009 season basically marks Harvicks ninth season at the wheel of once upon a time was the Goodwrench #3 car. Throw out a spectacular five-win campaign in 2006, and Harvick has only won twice in the other four seasons, one of those being the 2007 Daytona 500. Looking at his performance in winning this year's season opening Shootout, Harvick has chance to win the 500 again this year. The rest of the season will be more challenging, as the RCR cars all seem good enough to qualify for the 12-car Chase, but not good enough to truly challenge for the brass ring.
David Ragan (#6/Roush) – Has come a very long ways in two full seasons in the Roush camp and currently holds the title as 'best driver never to win a Cup race'. Ragan also wasn't able to quite get over the hump in regards to crashing last year's Chase party. The Chase as well as winning that first race are the next two hurdles for Ragan to clear in his still young career.
Jeff Burton (#31/RCR) – As I heard one observer say late last season, Burton is kind of the 'Wake Forest' of NASCAR. He doesn't have the biggest fan base, most race fans don't adore him, but none despise him neither. Most of that is a good thing, Burton has forever has been known as a clean racer and is well know for being an advocate for safety in the sport, especially after the Dale Earnhardt Sr. passing in 2001. He's good enough most years to contend for the title, but the question remains can he ever win a title without getting down and dirty at some point.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. #88/Hendrick) - There was supposed to be no more excuses after motorsports version of the Dallas Cowboys left DEI for Hendrick last year. But outside of a win at Michigan the Hendrick version of Junior was not much better than the DEI version. Give credit for Junior jumping the sinking DEI ship just in time, but he has to turn up the wick at some point and improve on the three wins he has over the past four seasons.
Clint Bowyer (#33/RCR) – Kind of the outsider who has snuck into the Chase in each of the past two seasons, and was even a factor in the Championship after winning the Chase opening race at New Hampshire in 2007. Bowyer starts the '09 campaign behind the 8-ball as he will be riding RCR's new fourth-entry in the #33 car, and thus will have to qualify for the season's first five races on his own, which might not be much of a factor if the car count turns out to be low at venues such as California and Las Vegas.
Kasey Kahne (#9/Richard Petty) – In the month of May, Kahne was the man willing two races and finishing second in another race. The rest of the year though it was the same inconsistent Kahne the NASCAR world has come to known in recent years. Part of the theory comes from driving a Dodge, as he is considered the best driver for a car make whose NASCAR stock has simply plummeted in the last two years.
Tony Stewart (#14/Stewart-Haas) – Ending his ten years association with Joe Gibbs Racing to start his own operation is one of the major storylines from last year and heading into this season. The recent records of owners-drivers in NASCAR is not good, but if anyone can buck that recent trend it can definitely be Stewart, but 2009 will probably be a bit of a transition period for the #14 but at the very least he should contend on the plate tracks and the road courses.
Brian Vickers (#83/Red Bull) – Took quite a chance a couple years back leaving the Hendrick operation for the upstart Red Bull team, and has had to fight uphill since not being able to make the show for several races early in the 2007 season. But by the middle of last year Vickers was starting to prove that he could run with the big boys at many venues. Getting a ticket into the top-12 and the Chase party is now a realistic goal for this third year operation.
Joey Logano (#20/Gibbs) – One of the true wild cards for the 2009 season, as what is touted as NASCAR's latest 'can't miss' prospect takes over the wheel of the #20 Home Depot car. The 18-year old was touted for years as the next big thing, and didn't take long to make an impact at the Nationwide Series level as soon as he was eligible, winning in his third start. Logano got some starts late in the year at the Cup level in anticipation for his full-season debut this year, but found the going to be much more difficult driving in sub-par equipment. Logano will eventually be a star, but patience is going to be needed initially.
Jamie McMurray (#26/Roush) – Ended 2008 as one of the hottest drivers on the circuit, finishing 5th, 7th, 3rd, 3rd, and 3rd, in five of his last six races. McMurray also seems to drive well at Daytona, making him a candidate for a potential win at the Daytona 500. However McMurray is still considered the fifth man in the Fenway-Roush operation, and NASCAR mandates that all teams must contract down to four drivers at the end of the '09 season, meaning McMurray will be auditioning for his future either with Roush – or another team, this season.
Kurt Busch (#2/Penske) – Those salad says back in the Roush stable seem a long time ago now for the 2004 champion, whi has finished 16th, 7th, and 18th in his three years behind the wheel for the #2 Miller Lite Dodge. Last year in particular was a disaster for Kurt, with the lone bright spots being a couple of late-season top five's along with a rain-aided win at New Hampshire. Here's another example of a driver who would improve if he ever got out of a Dodge, or if NASCAR decides on a way to make the Dodge's more competitive.
Martin Truex Jr. (#1/Ganassi) - Survived the off-season by becoming the lead driver for a consolidated Ganassi-DEI racing operation, Truex will continue to drive a Chevrolet. Truex's contract is set to expire following the 2009 season, and it is said that his eyes are already wandering.
Juan Pablo Montoya (#42/Ganassi) – If you are one of those who truly looks at the makes of cars being driven, then Montoya's value may get a bump up, as the Ganassi-DEI merger means that he will be driving a Chevrolet instead of a dodge this season. Montoya's best work tends to come on the road courses and plate tracks.
Casey Mears (#07/RCR) – Can Casey become a top driver in the Cup Series, it would figure that he would never get a better chance than he did with Hendrick Motorsports, but was buried at #4 on the depth chart there, although he did win once race during his tenure. Now with RCR, Mears moves to the Jack Daniels #07 car formerly driven by Clint Bowyer. All three of the previously existing RCR cars have done equally well in recent years, with all three making the Chase last year. That could bode well for Casey's 2009 season perhaps being the best one yet.
Ryan Newman (#39/Stewart-Haas) – If you based a season on solely winning the Daytona 500, then Newman's 2008 season was a success. However the truth was that Newman simply joined a growing trend of Daytona 500 winners who would go on to struggle for the remainder of the season, and the year proved to be the last of a series of declining returns in his tenure with Penske Racing, leading to his release by what was said to be a 'mutal agreement'. But Newman more than landed on his feet by joining Tony Stewart's new operation as his teammate. There will be an adjustment period, but I see now reason why the #39 can't be top-20 caliber on a weekly basis before two long.
Reed Sorenson (#43/Richard Petty) – Five years ago, Sorenson was considered one of the sport's rising stars while contending on a weekly basis in the old Busch Series. Now after a disappointing tenure with Ganassi Racing, Sorenson joins a merged Evernham-Petty operation, with Reed now driving the #43 car of what will now be known as Richard Petty Motorsports.
David Stremme (#12/Penske) – After a one-year absence from Cup competition, Stremme returns in a pretty good ride with the #12 formerly driven by Ryan Newman. At first glance, it appears that the #12 is running without sponsorship – with just the Penske name visible. The real story is that the car is still being funded through 2010 by what was known as Alltel. That company merged with Verizon in the past year, meaning the Verizon logo cannot appear on the car due to NASCAR's mandate that no telecommunications rivals to series sponsor Sprint appear on any car. The #12 team worked around that by having the Penske logo, but Verizon's red and black colors – which was approved by NASCAR.
Elliott Sadler (#19/Richard Petty) – A very eventful off-season for Sadler, as he was replaced in the #19 by A.J. Allmendinger, which led to Sadler threatening to take legal action against GEM Motorsports. The situation was resolved after Evernham merged with Richard Petty, with Salder restored to the #19. I still wouldn't expect much more than top-25 finishes.
Aric Almirola (#8/Ganassi) – The departure of Mark Martin from the #8 car finally puts Almirola in a full-time ride, provided Ganassi-DEI can continue to find enough sponsorship. Thus far in his brief Cup career, Almirola has saved his best showings for Bristol Motor Speedway, a track that for many drivers is one of the last to conquer.
Bobby LaBonte (#96/Hall of Fame) – Seeing the handwriting on the wall with the Petty operation, LaBonte left during the off-season, but quickly found work with what was known as Hall of Fame Racing in the #96 car, ensuring steady employment for the '09 season for the 2000 Series Championship. Don't look for LaBonte to win, but should contribute much-needed steady performances for an operation that had struggled the past few years.
Marcos Ambrose (#47/Michael Waltrip) – After racing part-time in the Wood Brothers #21 car last year, Ambrose will drive the #47 for Michael Waltrip Racing this season. The #00/#47 car finished just outside of the top-35 in points to finish the season, so Ambrose will have to qualify on time for the first five races of the season. If nothing else, Ambrose is an automatic contender in the two road-course races.
Scott Speed (#82/Red Bull) – In a controversial move, Red Bull Racing chose to release A.J. Allmendinger late in the 2008 season, going with Speed for this year. The move came because Speed was already under contract with Red Bull as a Formula One driver a couple years back. Speed did show some ability last year, finishing in the top-five in ARCA an recording top-tens in nine of 16 races in the Truck Series. Still, it may take a while for Scott to get up to Speed.
Michael Waltrip (#55/Michael Waltrip) – Not much more than what you have seen in recent years as far as Waltrip is concerned. He is on record as saying that he will retire at the end of the season if his performances do not improve.
Paul Menard (#98/Yates) – Left the DEI operation really hurting when he left (along with his dad's sponsorship) to move over to Yates Racing this year. It is not like the Yates operation has done much lately, but the sponsorship means Menard will be running for the entire season.
David Gilliland (#38/Yates) – Runs well on the plate tracks and is a name to remember when the series races at Infineon raceway. Except for his near-win at Infineon last year, Gilliland's next most memorable moment was intentionally taking Juan Pablo Montoya out of a race late in the season. .
Sam Hornish (#77/Penske) – Remember the great Open Wheel Invasion??? How long ago was that – about one year??? Well Hornish is the lone survivior, with the likes of Dario Franchitti and Patrick Carpentier long gone. In a week year, Hornish would had still won Rookie of the Year, if he had just qualified for the season-ending race at Homestead. Hornish still has steady employment at Penske but I don't see him going very far.
Robby Gordon (#7/Robby Gordon) – Has switched from Dodge to Toyota for the coming season. Was rumored in several possible mergers, but as of now Robby will continue to run as a single car operation – provided he can get enough sponsorship to run the season.
A.J. Allmendinger (#44/Richard Petty) – After landing the #19 ride for a few days, Allmendinger had to settle for what is now a part-time ride in the #44 car for the Richard Petty operation, and is guaranteed sponsorship for nine races with the potential for more. I like Allmendinger's potential, but his part-time status is all too familiar a situation for Allmendinger, who had to resort to qualifying his way into the show with Red Bull the last two seasons.
Travis Kvapil (#28/Yates) – Still has a ride with Yates racing, but finding sponsorship continues to be a challenge. Kvapil did manage to appear in all 36 races in 2008.
Jeremy Mayfield (#41/Jeremy Mayfield) – After clashing with an owner a few years back, this former two-time Chase participant will now be running his own team. Mayfield intends to run a full-schedule, which at least gets him a top-40 ranking here.
Regan Smith (#78/Furniture Row) – The near-winner of the fall Talladega race, Regan soon lost his ride with DEI and now will be a field-filler with Furniture Row Racing, now doubt looking for bigger and better things.
Brad Keselowski (#25/Hendrick) – If you follow the Nationwide Series he needs no introduction, where he contends on a weekly basis. Keselowski is scheduled for seven races with Hendrick Motorsports this coming season, and could appear in races for other teams. This is a name more to remember for 2010 and beyond.
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