KACSPORTS 2010 NASCAR FANTASY DRIVERS PREVIEW


  1. Jimmie Johnson (#48/Hendrick) – After four consecutive championships is there anywhere else to reasonably put him?? His detractors point that his four Chase Championships are a product of the #48 simply being good at the venues that serve as the final ten races of the season. The fact is no one has won more than Johnson period over the past four years, and Johnson is also the best driver in NASCAR since 2002 (His 47 wins compare with 25 for Tony Stewart in the same time period). If you are looking for weaknesses, OK Johnson is not the best on road courses and the team will sandbag slightly in the middle portions of the season while doing their homework for NASCAR's playoffs. But come September, no matter how the standings of the first 26 races shake out, don't make the mistake of putting the #48 anywhere other than being the favorite.




  2. Tony Stewart (#14/Stewart-Haas) – 2009 was supposed to be a transition year for Stewart after ending his 10-year association with Joe Gibbs Racing and becoming an owner/driver. It didn't take long to realize that Smoke was just as good as ever with his new ride, although some detractors noted that Stewart/Haas had merely become a satellite Hendrick operation. The downside was that the final third of the season was somewhat of a disappointment, and that Stewart's slump actually seemed to start not long after his dramatic July win at Daytona. Still 2009 exceeded most expectations, and look for Stewart to again land in Victory lane about as often as he shaves.




  3. Denny Hamlin (#11/Gibbs) – Made headlines recently by tearing the dreaded ACL in his left knee while playing basketball, no word on whether he was fouled on the way to the hoop by Brad Keselowski. If any ball-and-stick sport this would be a devastating development. But by all reports the injury should have little impact as far as driving is concerned. One small concern from a fantasy perspective is that Hamlin might have surgery on the knee after the '10 season, the recovery time for which could cut things close for the start of 2011, if Hamlin is out of the championship picture the last few weeks he could theoretically get surgery out of the way early. The silver lining was that before the hoops mishap Hamlin was getting major run as a possible successor to Johnson for the Cup after a red-hot finish (3 top-3 finishes in final four races) to the '09 season. Trick knee or not, Hamlin will be a force and the man to beat at tracks such as Richmond, Martinsville, and Pocono.




  4. Mark Martin (#5/Hendrick) – At age 50, Martin was the story of the season, winning five times and only falling short of that elusive first championship to teammate Jimmie Johnson – validating Martin's decision to return full-time. Martin will go at it at least one more year in the Hendrick stable, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him stick around even a little longer. A fitness fanatic, don't make the mistake of thinking that age is even close to catching up to him.




  5. Jeff Gordon (#24/Hendrick) – After a career in the same ride that has lasted about the same timespan as the career of Brett Favre, Gordon seems to be taken for granted these days. Gordon's still good, he's still a contender most weeks, but has not won a title since 2001 – although it's said that he would had won two additional titles had the old season-long points format had been used in the Chase era. About the only rap on Gordon is that he doesn't dominate like in the late 90's (that now belongs to Jimmie) and that he's only the third best on his own team. Actually, there are 30+ drivers on the Cup circuit who would love the opportunity to be the third-best driver on Hendrick.




  6. Kyle Busch (#18/Gibbs) – Kyle's 2009 season got off to the wrong foot after getting caught up in an accident towards the end of the Daytona 500 which was none of his own doing, and that seemed to effect him for months as a string of incidents throughout the course of the season led to Kyle shockingly missing the 12-driver Chase. But make no mistake, Kyle is among the most talented drivers in the sport, and Gibbs Racing wisely inked him to a recent long-term contract. The problem with Kyle is simply a case of someone who takes the 'second place is first loser' saying to heart, and to truly contend for a championship Kyle is going to have to settle for those days when he has merely a top-5 or top-10 car. If Kyle wins a championship in the next three years, it would be a surprise to few.




  7. Carl Edwards (#99/Roush) – Expected to be one of the prime contenders for the 2009 Championship, Edwards wound up having a horrible year by his standards. The closest Edwards came to a victory was at Talladega when he was wrecked right before the finish line by part-time rookie Brad Keselowski. And that was one of Edwards good days at Roush-Fenway Racing struggled as a whole the entire years. I would not be surprised if Edwards re-emerges early this year. California and Las Vegas in particular are two tracks the #99 runs well at. And if you believe in karma Edwards is due to become a first-time father around the time of the Daytona 500. Edwards is flying a bit under the radar this year, which will probably be good.




  8. Kurt Busch (#2/Penske) – 'WE'VE GOT A FIGHT, WE'VE GOT A TUSSLE, WE'VE GOT A WAR!!!' No, Kurt was not having a redux with Jimmy Spencer, that was actually the now-famed call from a PRN radio announcer in the final laps of a race in Atlanta when Busch got around a car that had just gambled with a two-tire stop, the last obstacle to Kurt winning the race and reaffirming himself as a top driver after a very subpar 2008 campaign. The Blue Deuce ended up finishing fourth in the Chase and also had one other win on the season. Most don't think Kurt can duplicate that effort this year, mainly because crew chief Pat Tryson has moved on after Tryson and Busch clashed at various times during the season. Also since Penske Racing is not considered a heavy hitter like Gibbs/Hendrick/Roush, the expectations are also not as high. Also Brad Keselowski comes on board as a teammate, meaning that Kurt is not only no longer the most hated driver in his family, but not even the most hated on his own team. Busch seems to do best at tracks such as Atlanta or Darlington, where there is little margin for error – at those venues he is more daring that others.




  9. Juan Pablo Montoya (#42/Earnhardt-Ganassi) – One of the breakthrough drivers of the 2009 season, Montoya earned himself a Chase berth but could not close the deal in winning a race on the season. The closest JPM came was in the Brickyard 400 where a controversial pit-road speeding penalty cost him a race that he otherwise dominated. In the closing weeks of the season Montoya found himself in tangos with Tony Stewart as well as college football analyst Bob Griese. A couple weeks later on his Twitter feed, JPM announced that he was having 'Mexican with the crew', which meant that perhaps Griese guessed right when suggesting that JPM was 'having a taco' during the ill-fated ESPN promo. Montoya's skirmish with Stewart during the season-ending Ford 400 might have last effects however. Montoya is known as a colorful driver, but also one who doesn't back down – which mean he is likely to find controversy a couple times during the course of a typical year.




  10. Kevin Harvick (#29/RCR) – Two words, contract year. One of the main storylines as the chairs leading up to Silly Season 2011 approach is whether Harvick will leave the only team he has known in his ten-year Cup career. Harvick's career with RCR has been checkered, running hot and/or cold at various times. And for a good portion of the '09 season the RCR entries were Arctic like cold before Harvick in particular turned up the wick in the season's final races, culminating with both he and teammate Jeff Burton finishing top-three at Homestead. Harvick opens the 2010 season with a 107-race winless streak, dating back to his 2007 Datyona 500 win.




  11. Greg Biffle (#16/Roush) – For as much as Carl Edwards struggled for much of the 2009 season, the rest of the Roush-Fenway stable was even worse, leading to Biffle's worst season since arriving in Cup. A late bloomer, one has to wonder if Biffle is already on the other side of his career. Of note is that R-F is in the process of phasing in a new motor, but the #16 team will not be using it for at least the first several races of the '10 season.




  12. Ryan Newman (#39/Stewart-Haas) – For as hot as Tony Stewart ran the first-half of last season, Newman (after a few horrible results early on) wasn't far behind, and some thought that it might be the #39 that would get to Victory Lane before the #14. But Newman struggle mightily the second half of the season, punctuated by a near-disastrous incident at Talladega that he incredibly walked away from. Winning a race, as well as returning to the Chase, are the main goals this season for Newman.




  13. Matt Kenseth (#17/Roush) – As seen on tape on the scoreboard following every game at Lambeau Field (urging fans to drive home safely) Kenseth started the 2009 season more than well enough winning the first two races, the rain-shortened Daytona 500 as well as California. Then came Las Vegas, when in a pre-race interview, Kenseth poor-mouthed his car and said he'd be lucky to score a top-ten. Turned out he wasn't kidding, as the #17 gave up the ghost not long after the green flag. That set the tone for the rest of the campaign, with Kenseth not only not winning again, but missing the Chase for the first time in his career. The #17 was used late in the year for the new motor that Roush-Fenway is phasing in.




  14. Kasey Kahne (#9/Richard Petty) – Considering RPM is not one of the big-players right now make Kahne's 2009 season all the more impressive, which included two wins, one of which unexpectedly came on the road course at Infineon Raceway. Kahne stumbled down the stretch after making the Chase, and many questions are already coming as 2010 is Kahne's free agent year, not to mention that RPM is also switching to Fords. Early indications are that Kahne is not sold on staying with the #9 team, and could be looking elsewhere – which may end up making more noise than what he actually does on the track in 2010.




  15. Brian Vickers (#83/Red Bull) – Vickers vindicated his risky move from Hendrick Motorsports to the upstart Red Bull operation a few years back by winning a race (from the pole at Michigan) and also qualifying for the Chase, finishing in the top-12 for an incredible 10 consecutive races. But Vickers fell so dramatically after making the Chase that many forget that Vickers still had a tremendous year in total. Whether the mid-season #83 or late-season #83 shows up this year remains to be seen, but still at only age 26, Vickers has a ton of good racing remaining.




  16. Clint Bowyer (#33/RCR) – For the first part of the 2009 season, Bowyer was by far the best thing RCR had going, made more impressive due to the fact that he moved from the #07 team and took on an entirely new crew. However Bowyer slumped after that and was not able to make the Chase for a third consecutive season, along with the other RCR entries, Bowyer did rally late in the season, finishing top-12 in six of the final seven races.




  17. Jeff Burton (#31/RCR) – Endured one of the longest slumps of his decade-plus career, which is saying something considering the struggles he had mainly going sponsorless towards the end of his tenure with Jack Roush. Burton had a great end to the season, finishing second in the last two races. Will that be momentum heading into this year, or is it a case of being a two-track wonder and faring well in races where some others may had already been looking towards the off-season. Considering RCR in particular ran well late, I would expect it in part to continue into this season.




  18. Joey Logano (#20/Gibbs) – The 2009 season was about Logano taking his lumps, getting seat time and eventually improving. Logano got his first win out of the way in a rain-shortened race at New Hampshire but was actually more impressive scoring a pair of top-fives late in the season. A Chase berth this season would not be out of the question, I would say 2011 at the latest. But give him time, he does not turn 20 until May.




  19. Dale Earnhardt Jr. #88/Hendrick) - While the other three Hendrick entries battle for championships, Dale Jr. comes in first in the merchandising department but has fallen far short on the track over the past two years. I'm guessing the excuses run out this season. There were portions of many races in 2009 where the #88 looked strong, only not to make it for the entire distance. Dale Jr. will always have the biggest fan base and a ride in Cup as long as he wants it, but if he ever wants a legit shot at being a contender, this year may be put up or shut up.




  20. David Reutimann (#00/Michael Waltrip) – MWR impressively stepped up last season, led by Reutimann, who contended in several races before breaking through in a rain-marred race at Charlotte. Biggest knock on 'The Franchise' is that while he does well on 1 ½ mile tracks, he tends to struggle everywhere else. Martin Truex Jr. comes aboard as a teammate this season, which will give the Waltrip stable more credibility.




  21. Brad Keselowski (#12/Penske) – Anyone who has watched the Nationwide Series the last two seasons knows the man has talent, the bigger issue is earning the respect of rival drivers – and Denny Hamlin wasn't the only one pissed off with Brad towards the end of the season. Keselowski also showed he could compete in a limited Cup schedule, much of which was with a fifth Richard Hendrick car. It remains to be seen how Keselowski can fare in a non-Hendrick ride, and I suspect there will be an adjustment with Penske. Again, the key is going to be improving relations with the other rank-and-file drivers.




  22. Marcos Ambrose (#47/Michael Waltrip) – The Tasmanian Devil is hit or miss, on the road courses and venues such as plate tracks and short tracks, Ambrose is money and does not back down to anyone. It's not like Ambrose is terrible in the other races but he's going to have to show improvement to have a chance at earning a Chase berth.




  23. Martin Truex Jr. (#56/Michael Waltrip) – Formerly the #55 car and will be using the #55's owners points to begin the season. Truex's swan song in the #1 for Earnhardt/Ganassi was a disappointment from previous seasons, but did finish with three top-tens in the final six races. Truex's arrival is a coup for the Waltrip team, and I see no reason why Truex can't be as competitive as Marcos Ambrose and David Reutimann.




  24. Jamie McMurray (#1/Earnhardt-Ganassi) – In a strange twist of fate, McMurray returns to his Ganassi roots this season after mostly bombing out in his tenure with Roush-Fenway. McMurray did get a late win at Talladega last year, meaning of his three career wins, two have come on plate tracks along with that pinch-hit win (for Sterling Marlin) at Charlotte in the fall of 2002. He obviously likes the plate tracks, but I no longer look at him as a contender on a weekly basis.


  25. A.J. Allmendinger (#43/Richard Petty) – One of the better stories of the last couple of years as Allmendinger pounded the pavement and got a part-time ride with RPM, which eventually became a full-time gig after strong results in the Daytona 500 as well as some other early races. Allmendinger got an early start driving the Ford for RPM in the final races of '09, and fared very well finishing 10th, 13th, and 10th. We'll see if the momentum continues into this season.




  26. David Ragan (#6/Roush) – For much of 2008 Ragan flirted with a Chase berth and it only seemed like a matter of time before he won a race. Needless to say, Ragan did not just take a step back last year, he regressed a couple of steps. Ragan is still just a pup, but he is going to be one driver on the spot and in need of turning things around before he finds himself on the outside looking in.




  27. Sam Hornish (#77/Penske) – He was the consummate checker or wrecker last year, scoring a top-5 or top-10, then followed by a few 35th type finishes. In year three with the #77 team, a breakthrough is expected. If he could cut down just a little on the early trips to the garage Hornish could flirt with a top-20 finish.




  28. Elliott Sadler (#19/Richard Petty) – A threat of legal action before the 2009 season allowed Sadler to remain in the #19 car after the Gillett/Evernham merger and also has a secure ride this year. Sadler is a nice play on restrictor plate tracks, he recorded three top 10's in those four races last year. Other than those races Sadler is rarely a factor.




  29. Scott Speed (#82/Red Bull) – Red Bull took a major risk a little over a year ago terminating A.J. Allmendinger to bring Speed on board, who had previously been on Red Bull's Formula One team. If you throw out a top-five at Talladega, Speed's best finish in the Cup Series last year was 15th. Speed has been more competitive in the Nationwide Series, some of that is going to have to start showing up on the Cup side this year.




  30. Paul Menard (#98/Richard Petty) – Perhaps the biggest thing helping Menard's Cup career these days is having his dad's hardware store as a sponsor, which immediately puts him ahead of the game of many others in the current economic climate. Now Menard has to prove that it's more than the sponsorship money keeping him on the circuit. Constant change in the operation remains an issue, as Robert Yates Racing was consolidated by RPM in the off-season.




  31. Bobby LaBonte (#71/TRG) – It will be the old past champions provisional that will have LaBonte in the field for the duration of the 2010 season. The last time LaBonte won a race was the final race of the 2003 season when he was still with Joe Gibbs Racing.




  32. Casey Mears (#90/Keyed-Up) – Like the rest of his RCR teammates, Mears had a strong finish to the 2009 season, but it was too little, too late as Mears wound up being the most prominent driver without a steady ride for the 2010 season. Despite having seats with RCR and Hendrick Motorsports, Mears has never been able to turn the corner and become a contending driver. Mears did sign on with a start-up operation which is committed for at least the first five races of the season. Mears does have the talent that should put him ahead of the other field-fillers.




  33. Regan Smith (#78/Furniture Row) – When it comes down to dollars, the Furniture Row Operation is a mom-and-pop operation compared to the top teams. Racing part-time with Regan and Joe Nemechek last year, Furniture Row says they are committed to racing Regan for the entire 2010 schedule.




  34. Robby Gordon (#7/Robby Gordon) – The economic trouble may cause Robby to cut his own one-car operation to a part-time schedule this year. At this time it is said that Robby has sponsorship secured for eight races thus far. Not a factor in most races these days, although he annually makes noise in the two road course events. Even there now, he will be up against it with a patchwork crew and budget.




  35. Travis Kvapil (#34/Front Row) – John Andretti ran the #34 as a Chevrolet last year and made 34 of the 36 races and did finish in top 35 in points. There are conflicting reports that the team may instead buy the points from the contracted #26 Roush/Fenway team or the old #44 RPM team. Way too confusing to explain, the #34 is more or less a R&D team that will probably employ several drivers in various races.