KAC 2006 FANTASY BASEBALL - RELIEF PITCHER RANKINGS
Mariano Rivera (NYY) - The best fantasy position of all to analyze are the closers - and there are a number of strategies to utilize. One is to grab one or two or the premiere closers early, or to grab one of the surprises off the waiver wire early in the season. Of the top tier closers, Rivera doesn't produce the most strikeouts, but you can't argue with his record over the last decade which has produced totals of 43, 36, 45, 36, 50, 28, 40, 53, and 43 saves. You know the Yankees are going to win games, and plenty of those will continue to be closed out with Rivera.
Brad Lidge (HOU) - His post-season blowups were well documented, but fortunately he doesn't have to face Pujols or the White Sox every day during the regular season. Lidge matched most of the lofty expectations in his first full season as closer, saving 42 games despite missing about 10 days at mid-season. ONLY struck out 103 in 70.2 innings last year, down from an incredible 157 in 94.2 innings in 2004.
Francisco Rodriguez (ANG) - Like Lidge, K-Rod matched his high expectations in his first full year in a closers role, saving 45 games despite a brief stint on the DL. The combination of well over a strikeout per inning plus playing for a contending team will continue to keep K-Rod among the top tier of closers.
Joe Nathan (MN) - Saved 43 games last year, seemingly 20 of those came in three weeks in which I sat him down in CDM Diamond Challenge. When he?s on a roll, Nathan shuts down the opposition 1-2-3 in about no time flat and strikes out well over a man per inning. The only slight negative I see with Nathan is that I feel the Twins as a team are going to start turning in a downward direction this year.
Huston Street (OAK) - Just a year removed from the University of Texas baseball program, Street took over as Oakland?s closer at mid-season and closed out 23 games with an outstanding 1.72 ERA. Street doesn?t have the greatest MPH on his fastball but has already taken his place among the top closers.
Eric Gagne (LA) - I was one of the few that didn?t rank Gagne #1 last year, as I just had a hunch that an injury could be around the corner - and that indeed came to fruition. The good news was that Tommy John surgery was not needed, and that Gagne could be ready for opening day. Latest reports out of Florida have Gagne just beginning to find his release point on his curve, so expectations should be tempered somewhat. Still, Gagne K'd 22 in the 13 innings he pitched last year at not near 100 percent. Remembering the historic numbers Gagne racked up from 2002-04 he could very well be ranked #1 again at this time last year - so 2006 is your chance to get him 'relatively' cheap.
Billy Wagner (NYM) - Still one of the premiere closers in the game, recording ratios of .87, .77, and .84 the last three years. Also trading Philadelphia for Shea will not possibly hurt, and Wags had a 1.51 ERA last year. I have him bumped down a few notches though because there?s a lot of mileage on the left arm.
B.J. Ryan (TOR) - He's got the thinning hair and the mullet, so Toronto will be perfect for him. Lot of people worried about Ryan last year, but his only problem was that the Orioles simply didn't win many games in the second half last year. The rest of his numbers (2.43/1.14, 100 K in 70.1 innings) are just fine. Also goes 6?6? and 260, Ryan has proven himself as a solid selection.
Bobby Jenks (CWS) - Had the White Sox gone down quietly to Boston in the first round of the playoffs, Jenks would have been one of this year's better sleepers. However the White Sox's championship run put Bobby on everyone's radar. There are concerns about Jenks (6?3? 270) showing up in shape, and has had to deal with some rough spots down in the minors. However Dustin Hermanson closed out a ton of games for the South Siders last year and there shouldn't be any reason why Jenks can't do likewise.
Jason Isringhausen (STL) - Staying healthy has always been a concern, but Izzy has closed out 86 games for the Cards over the last two years. Doesn't have exceptional strikeout totals, but pitching for a perennial contender should be enough to keep Izzy a top-ten reliever for the foreseeable future.
Chad Cordero (WSH) - Cordero and his Dan Harrington cap style was a godsend for fantasy teams in the first three months of 2005, as he was saving a Nats win seemingly every night. But Cordero?s value went down as the team slumped in the second half, and his arm also seemed to be overworked by that report. Cordero is also not a power pitcher and is forced to depend on pinpoint control. I also see the Nationals struggling in the powerful NL East this year, and Cordero may be hard-pressed to match his 2005 #'s (1.82/.97/47 saves). FASCINATING FACTOID ABOUT CHAD: Spanish speaking reporters at last year's All-Star Game were shocked to find out that Chad didn?t know the language, as his parents raised him in an English speaking environment.
Francisco Cordero (TX) - Slipped a little after saving 49 games last year, and was actually cuffed around a little (3.39/1.32). Home ballpark that he pitches in is of some concern.
Derrick Turnbow (MIL) - A perfect example why you shouldn?t panic if you find yourself short on closers after your draft, as Turnbow was on nobody's radar this time last year. If you nabbed Turnbow off the waiver wire after his first save or two in April you would have been rewarded with 39 saves, seven wins, and a 1.74 ERA. That said, Turnbow could just as easily be this year's bust. If Turnbow struggles or gets hurt, the Brewers could turn to prospect Jose Capellan, who has high 90?s material himself. Still, Turnbow should still be a quality closer, he held opponents to an amazing .090 batting average following the All-Star break last year.
Armando Benitez (SF) - Missed most of the season after tearing his hamstring in a freak incident early on, but made a successful return down the stretch. Benitez had 47 saves and a .82 ratio as recently as 2004, so chances are good that he should do well this season.
Jose Velverde (AZ) - Not the Big Unit, but at 6'4" 255 he's pretty close. When he's been healthy the last few years, and it hasn't been often - Valverde has shown dominating stuff, and closed last year by closing 15 of 17 games. He should be able to hold off Brandon Lyon and others to be the D-Backs closer this year.
Trevor Hoffman (SD) - If you analyze the closers for all 30 MLB teams, you notice that very few teams employ the same closer for longer than 2-3 years. Mariano Rivera and TH51 are the glaring exceptions. Hoffman has lost some velocity, but has still racked up 40+ saves the last two years, still a solid option.
Eddie Guardado (SEA) - Many have forgotten about Everyday Eddie since leaving Minnesota, but the left-hander returned successfully from injury and saved 36 games with a decent 2.72 ERA. Still a solid mid-tier closer.
Keith Foulke (BOS) - One of the wild cards of this year. Foulke has been a top-ten closer before, but has also had rough stretches - including an injury riddled campaign in 2005 with a sky-high 5.91 ERA. If he looks good in spring training, move Foulke up your draft board as Boston's closer should always be good for producing plenty of saves.
Tom Gordon (PHI) - Comes back from the dead to closes for seemingly the 20th time this season. Never closed for the Yankees, but was still very effective as a setup man. Even at age 38, I don't see Flash in that bad of a situation with the Phillies.
Todd Jones (DET) - Another closer who was just an afterthought at this time last year, as it appeared that Jones had been reduced forever to mop-up duty and making waves in Sporting News columns. But Jones wound up saving 40 games with the Marlins with a 2.10 ERA/1.03 ratio. Should be somewhat reliable again as he is expected to close for the Tigers.
Brian Fuentes (COL) - The closest thing to a recommended Rockies pitcher, as Fuentes averaged well over a strikeout per inning, and also had a sub-3 ERA that was actually better in Coors Field. Still I?m not convinced that this is not an anomaly - if you take Fuentes make sure you have a backup plan.
Ryan Dempster (CHC) - Recorded plenty of saves (33) in about ¾ of a season's worth of work in a closers role and also struck out about a man per inning. But Dempster was a high-wire act on many nights and had a ratio of 1.43. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Dempster losing his job at some point this season.
Mike Gonzalez (PIT) - Unproven closer is wild (35 walks in 50 IP last year), but also strikes out more than a man per innings. There?s potential but not a sure thing.
Chad Orvella (FL) - I think the D-Rays will be vastly improved this year and Orvella appears to have some nice potential. Unproven commodity but appears to have the inside track at closing in Tampa.
Chris Reitsma (ATL) - Is expected to open the year as Braves closer with Kyle Farnsworth moving on. Should get a good number of saves early on but there's a good chance Joey Devine will take over at some point in 2006.
Travis Bowyer (FL) - The Marlins have sold off most of their parts to everyone but the United Arab Emerits in the off-season. But Bowyer is one of the prized prospects the team got in return, and has the inside track of winning the closers job. Bowyer was featured in last year's Futures game and has a fastball that approaches 100 MPH.
LaTroy Hawkins (BAL) - We've seen LFH implode at a couple of locales before, but we've also seen him be dominant at times. LFH is expected to open the season as Baltimore's closer before prospect Chris Ray proves himself as ready.
Mike MacDougal (KC) - Has been a work in progress for a few years, but seems to be slowly finding his control. Pitching for the lowly Royals remains the main problem, but bid an extra buck because his player ID on Yahoo is 6666.
David Weathers (CIN) - Veteran closest thing the Reds have to a closer right now, the team officially considers themselves to be 'closer by committee'.
Chris Ray (BAL) - LaTroy Hawkins is probably the present, but Ray is likely to take over at some point this season.
Joe Borowski (FL) - If Travis Bowyer proves to be not quite ready, Borowski could well end up as the Marlins closer. Saved 33 games for the Cubs back in 2003.
Danys Baez (LA) - Ended up closing 41 games in Tampa last year, and could be a nice April fill-in if Eric Gagne proves to be not quite ready.
Dustin Hermanson (CWS) - Was a top-ten closer for much of 2005, closing 33 games. Could fill in again if Jenks falters or be dealt elsewhere.
Joey Devine (ATL) - Gave up the 18th inning home run to Chris Burke and also gave up a couple of big grand slams in September - but Devine is still considered the Braves closer of the future, and could take over that role at some point this year.
Kyle Farnsworth (NYY) - Had he'd stayed with Atlanta, I would have him near the top ten after saving 16 games late last year. Unfortunately there is little shot at saves as long as Mariano Rivera is healthy.
Brandon Lyon (AZ) - Saved a ton of games early in the year but then hurt is elbow and didn't do well once he finally came off the DL. Could step in again if Jose Valverde gets hurt but Lyon has always had a somewhat shaky record.
Guillermo Mota (CLE) - Got hurt then lost his closers role in Florida last year. There's an off-chance that Mota could challenge for the closers role should something come up with Bob Wickman. But it appears that Mota's M-O is that of an eighth inning specialist.
Jeremy Affeldt (KC) - Has bounced around between starting and relieving, and could find himself back in the rotation this year. Affeldt remains the Royals pitcher with the most potential.
Jose Capellan (MIL) - Former starter who was moved to the bullpen when he struggled in AAA last year. Still has a very high celing, so you may want to check out his exploits as the season moves along.
Rafael Soriano (SEA) - His player ID is 6662, not quite 6666 but.... Averaged well over a strikeout per inning before needing Tommy John surgery a couple years ago. Has most of his velocity back and I project him as becoming a closer a year or two down the road.
Mike Timlin (BOS) - The Red Sox turned to the veteran in a pinch last year, and could do so again should Keith Foulke again struggle.
Jesse Crain (MN) - Just a couple years ago, it was thought that it would only be a matter of time before Crain became a Major League closer. One problem is that Joe Nathan is firmly entrenched; another is that Crain has mysteriously lost a ton of velocity. Crain did have a nice 2.71 ERA last year, but struck out only 25 batters in nearly 80 innings pitched.
Ryan Wagner (CIN) - My deepest sleeper, Wagner has struggled mightily the last two years. My take is that I think the Reds rushed Ryan too quickly when he was brought up literally straight out of college a few years back. That said, no one has a solid hold of the Reds closing job, so Wagner could still emerge if he gets his act together.
