KAC 2006 FANTASY BASEBALL - AL STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS
Johan Santana (MN) – Now we get into the real fun stuff, ranking the hitters for the first seven positions is one thing, but the final three rankings, or 30 percent of the total players – account for 50 percent of the stats. As far as Johan is concerned, he is the one starter who will appear in the first round of most mock drafts. Myself I feel he will come a tad overpriced in most rotisserie formats, as there were stretches last year where Santana was less than dominating. However if he’s less than stellar in the first half, that might be a good time to pry him away from a dissatisfied owner, for he’s been money in the second half the last two seasons, a 1.21 ERA/.75 ratio in 2004, 1.59/.88 last year. Santana gets a slight nod overall over the top National League starters.
Roy Halladay (TOR) – Seems some people have forgotten about him, although unlike other top starters Roy doesn’t have insane strikeout totals. During the month of June he was nearly as untouchable as Chris Carpenter until a line drive in Texas broke his leg and ended his season. The Jays were wise not to rush him back, and his arm got some extra rest in the process. I am very high on Halladay this year.
Rich Harden (OAK) – As is the case with Halladay, only a non-pitching arm related injury kept Harden from Cy Young contention last year. In Harden’s case it was a torn labrum in his left (non-throwing) shoulder which kept him on the shelf for some time and also affected his effectiveness. But when he was healthy there were times Harden was downright dominating. I think both Harden and Halladay will offer more bang for the buck than Santana this season.
Josh Beckett (BOS) – Those who have owned Beckett throughout his career have been frustrated by his annual blister problems, which has limited Josh to 160 IP over the last three years. Maybe the Red Sox team physician has the cure – if so Josh could win a ton of games and at least he hasn’t been overworked.
A.J. Burnett (TOR) – I could rattle off his ERA, WHIP and strikeouts from last year – or I could just say one number – 103. That was MPH one of his pitches was clocked at last season. Perhaps the gun for the game was borrowed from a State Trooper but that’s a number that should get anyone’s attention. Turned some people off by badmouthing the Marlins organization on his way out the door, but it wasn’t like his opinions weren’t right. He should be fine on a Blue Jay team that has opened up the checkbook in a commitment to winning.
Randy Johnson (NYY) – Like Burnett, I sum up Unit with one number, but in his case it isn’t exactly positive. The number is 42, as in his age, making Randy one of a dwindling number of Major Leaguers actually older than this writer. He is still less than two years removed from pitching a perfect game, still strikes out nearly a man per inning, and really wasn’t that bad last year. Johnson just doesn’t have the youth of the five pitchers ahead of him.
Felix Hernandez (SEA) – Expectations are going to be through the roof for the 20-year old, and he proved in just two months last year that he is the real deal. Be aware though that Felix is still technically the Mariners #5 starter, and the team is talking about limiting his innings and possibly skipping him early in the season. As a result, Felix won’t be seeing as many weeks in which he starts twice.
John Lackey (ANG) – Teammate Bart Colon may have come away with the Cy Young hardware, but from a fantasy perspective Lackey was the Angels best pitcher last year – making a quantum-leap improving his ERA to 3.44 from the 4.6’s in previous years. Besides winning 17 games, Lackey also made a huge improvement in strikeouts, recording nearly one per inning. Lackey still allows too many baserunners to be considered an elite fantasy pitcher, his ratio was still 1.33 as opposed to previous efforts of 1.42 and 1.39.
Curt Schilling (BOS) – The pitchers version of Barry Bonds this year, he either rebounds in a big way or he’s near the end at age 39. Normally pitchers coming off a year of 5.69/1.53 don’t merit being ranked this high, but Schilling vows that he is near 100 percent although he concedes that his infamous ankle will be a factor from here on out. Considering his legendary competitive spirit, don’t count him out.
Mark Buehrle (CWS) – Already named the White Sox opening day starter, Buehrle racks up plenty of wins and innings pitched, and sported a fine 3.12 ERA last year – and is still relatively young at age 27. On the downside Buehrle doesn’t rack up a lot of strikeouts and is on everyone’s potential burnout list due to the heavy workload, averaging 230 IP’s since 2002.
Bartolo Colon (ANG) – You would think defending Cy Young winners coming off a 21-win season would be ranked higher. The concern is that Bart could revert back to his 2004 ways, when he won 18 but sported an ERA over 5. At the very worst, you’re assured help in the always funky win department, with 54 victories since 2003.
Barry Zito (OAK) – You never know what you’re going to get from Zito, he could be downright spectacular, or downright mediocre. I also figure this will be a distraction filled season for Barry as well since it is no secret that the A’s can no longer afford his salary, and will be dealt at some point for prospects.
Kelvim Escobar (ANG) – Figures to get plenty of attention in salary cap games this year, and also projects as a major sleeper for those who haven’t forgotten about him. Escobar missed the majority of last year with bone spurs in his elbow, but still struck out more than one batter per inning when he did pitch.
Danny Haren (OAK) – One reason Barry Zito is now considered expendable in Oakland is the depth of young hurlers now in the starting rotation. Haren won 14 games and got his ERA under 4 for the first time last year, and at age 25 figures to get even better. Will be pitching for the Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic.
Freddy Garcia (CWS) – Has regressed some in recent years, his ERA flirting with four in both 2004 and 2005. However manager Ozzie Guillen loves working his pitchers late into games, so 15+ wins is a realistic expectation.
Jon Garland (CWS) – Was a Cy Young candidate for much of the year, and ended up winning 18 games with a fine 3.50 ERA. But he isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher and his ERA will probably be around the 4.00 area this time around, although he’s a good selection if looking for wins.
Erik Bedard (BAL) – Was one of the top hurlers in the first two months of 2005, sporting a 5-1 record with an ERA just under two before suffering a knee injury, and wasn’t nearly the same pitcher afterwards. Still, Bedard should benefit from the tutelage of new pitching coach Leo Mazzone, I’m expecting a big year out of Bedard.
Cliff Lee (CLE) – Took a huge step last year, improving from 5.43/1.50 to 3.79/1.22 while winning 18 games. I wouldn’t go too high on Lee though since he doesn’t work in a pitchers park and doesn’t figure to win that many games again, although he does still have some upside.
Joe Blanton (OAK) – That’s four A’s pitchers out of the first 17. Blanton improved his ERA by 2 full runs last year, finishing at 3.53. However Blanton only won 12 games and isn’t good with the strikeouts.
Kevin Millwood (TX) – Recorded a fine 2.86 ERA last year in Cleveland, but only won nine games and now moves to the biggest pitchers graveyard this side of Coors Field. Expect more wins, but also a higher ERA.
Brad Radke (MN) – A conservative pick at this point in the draft. Radke specializes in having an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 range and a ratio around 1.20 – but not with a lot of punchouts.
Jeremy Bonderman (DET) – This is a perfect example of a ‘post-hype’ player. Bonderman was expected to emerge last year, but his ERA/ratio was still on the dark side of 4.50/1.30. However Bonderman is still only 23, and this year could very well be the season many were expecting last year.
Carl Pavano (NYY) – An injury-riddled bust in his first season in the Bronx, but I still can’t forget his 18 wins and 3.00 ERA in Florida a couple years back. Pavano’s injury problems are still in question, so he bears monitoring in Spring Training.
Mike Mussina (NYY) – Still a threat to win at least 15 games and on some nights can be absolutely unhittable. Still Moose has been in the 4.50/1.35 range the last two years, so his days of being an elite starter appear to be over.
C.C. Sabathia (CLE) – Still only 25, Sabathia has now put together three solid seasons averaging 13 wins with an ERA in the 4.00 area. Is considered a blowout list although his innings pitched usually falls under 200.
Daniel Cabrera (BAL) – The fact that he throws high-‘90’s and strikes out nearly a man per inning should get your attention. Attractive selection with a lot of upside.
Scott Kazmir (TB) – Great candidate for a true breakout campaign this year after striking out 174 in 186 innings last year. Still allows a lot of baserunners (1.46 ratio last year) but could very well become a true ace despite pitching in a very tough division.
Ervin Santana (ANG) – Can he be as good as the other Santana in the Junior circuit. Well, Ervin won 12 games in just four months worth of work and posts decent strikeout totals. A nice sleeper pick.
Jose Contreras (CWS) – I still worry about him blowing up at any time, but finally found consistency on the South Side last year.
Kenny Rogers (DET) – Ranked 112th (both leagues) on MLB.COM’s sight, talk about not getting any love. And this is out of someone who won 14 games with a 3.42 ERA despite missing three weeks with his much celebrated suspension. Sure Kenny is now 41, but also moves into a much better pitchers park. Look past Kenny being an A-hole and he’s not a bad late round pick.
Matt Clement (BOS) – Is a high maintenance pitchers, usually piling up huge pitch counts and not lasting much more than six innings, which costs him chances at wins. Strikeout totals dipped last year while his ERA rose nearly a point to 4.57.
Jeff Weaver (ANG) – ERA was just over four the last two years, and could even go up a tad after making the short trip down the freeway to Anaheim. Still a good bet to rack up some wins on the back end of the Angels rotation.
Kris Benson (BAL) – Personal opinion, if that guy ever got a divorce he’d be an instant Cy Young contender. As it stands now, he figures as a Brad Radke type at best with an ERA around 4.
Justin Verlander (DET) – The second overall pick in the 2004 draft, Verlander already figures to be with the big club after posting a 1.29 ERA in the minors last year, also positing a stikeout per inning. If things go right, Verlander could be a top-30 overall pitcher this year.
Jarrod Washburn (SEA) – Had a fine 3.20 ERA last year and now moves up the coast to a pitchers paradise in Seattle. But Washburn is not a strikeout pitcher and his ERA is likely to go up towards 4 again, he had ERA’s of 4.43 and 4.64 his two previous years in Anaheim.
Paul Byrd (ANG) – Strikeouts went south last year bust can still post decent numbers with a strong offense behind him.
Jake Westbrook (CLE) – You can’t argue with 29 wins the last two years, although his ERA ballooned over a point to 4.49 last year.
Francisco Lirinao (MN) – All you need to know about his potential is 33 strikeouts in just 23 2/3 innings last year.
Bronson Arroyo (BOS) – Not a lot of strikeouts but will always figure to win some games as long as he stays in the Red Sox rotation.
Tim Wakefield (BOS) – Ageless wonder won 16 games last year and is better on the strikeouts than one would think. Turns 40 later on in the season but knuckleballers can last forever.
David Wells (BOS) – Still won 15 games last year, but Wells doesn’t strike out many any more in his advanced age and figures to be moved to a West Coast team at some point. Not recommended.
Bruce Chen (BAL) – Well traveled hurler finally reached some of his potential last year winning 13 games with respectable numbers in the other three core categories. I still see him as more of a #3-#4 starter than a staff ace.
Jonathan Papelbon (BOS) – Has been mentioned as a possible starter, or could come out of the pen – or even close at some point in the not-too-distant future. What is known is that Papelbon throws mid-90’s and has a very high ceiling.
Carlos Silva (MN) – The downside with Silva, he didn’t win a lot in 2005 and hardly strikeout anyone. But he also issues very few free passes and wound up with a fine 3.44 ERA last year.
Gustavo Chacin (TOR) – Another one who won some games last year (13) with a decent ERA (3.72) – however he will be hard-pressed to match those numbers and is not a hard thrower.
Shawn Chacon (NYY) – Posted a sub-3 ERA in 12 starts after getting out of the pitching hell-hole known as Colorado. Even if his other numbers are mediocre, Chacon could still be in line for some wins in the Bronx.
Zack Greinke (KC) – The fact that I don’t have a Royal listed until #47 tells you everything you need to know about that organization, and Greinke sunk to that level with a truly awful 2005. Keep in mind however that he’s still only 25, and that he is still the closest thing to a ‘staff ace’ that team has.
Vicente Padilla (TX) – Had very solid seasons with the Phillies in 2002/’03 but has posted 4.50+ ERA’s the two years since and now moves into an even worse pitchers park.
Scott Baker (MN) – Posted nice numbers in limited work last year, but will be hard pressed to make the Twins rotation.
Kevin Brown (NYY) – I could actually rip off about 30 more pitchers that can be recommended before Brown. The one-time ace finally saw his lucrative contract signed in 1998 run out and although his arm is still sound, his back is shot. Agent Scott Boras indicated over the weekend that Brown’s career is in all likelihood over. With Brown out of the picture Roger Clemens becomes more of a possibility to land in New York.
