KAC 2006 FANTASY BASEBALL - NL STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS
Chris Carpenter (STL) - While Johan Santana stands head and shoulders above the crowd in the AL, you could make an argument for 7-8 National League starters being #1 on this list, which punctuates the depth of ace quality material I the Senior Circuit. I am going to give the defending Cy Young winner the #1 spot by the narrowest of margains, mostly based on an incredible three month run from June-August that went 0.90/.80, 1.11/.76, and 2.17/.83. Carpenter did cost some owners fantasy titles (myself included) with an awful September - but those were almost glorified Spring Training games as the Cardinals by that time were virtually assured the #1 seed in the National League playoffs. Carpenter should win plenty of games again, but beware of a fairly lengthy injury history. The dimensions of the new Busch Stadium will be a symmetrical 335/375/400/375/335, so the home ballpark shouldn't be a factor.
Jake Peavy (SD) - Not even 25 and already has an ERA and a strikeout title on his resume, but also a fairly extensive injury history, including a bizarre broken rib sustained either during his playoff outing in St. Louis or while celebrating the Padres division title a few days earlier - I kind of believe the second theory myself. Also had some outings shortened with shoulder pain during the year. On the plus side, he does have one of the majors best pitchers parks for his home games.
Pedro Martinez (NYM) - When healthy, Pedro showed last year that he can still be the best pitcher in baseball bar none. By the All-Star Break last year Pedro had 138 strikeouts and a WHIP of a nifty .85. I would probably give Pedro the #1 spot if not for a troublesome toe injury that has kept him off the mound for most of this winter. Martinez is one player who you have to watch the injury updates this spring.
Roy Oswalt (HOU) - You can't argue with 20 wins in each of the last two season, toiling an average of 240 innings in the process. The fact that the Astros were battling for their playoff lives in both 2004 and 2005 helped get Oswalt plenty of work late in the season. The worry is that when you include the playoffs, Oswalt has thrown a lot the last couple years - but unless something crops up in his arm I wouldn?t worry too much.
Carlos Zambrano (CHC) - Value is on the upswing based on reports that Zambrano has lost weight this off-season. Has won 43 games the last three years while posting ERA?s of 3.11, 2.75, and 3.26. Has reportedly lost weight and appears focused on a career season.
Dontrelle Willis (FL) - Won a MLB leading 22 games in 2005, but will be hard pressed to match that total on a stripped down Marlins team. Willis answered the critics saying he couldn't last the entire season, posting a fine 2.63 ERA. Also helps himself more than any other NL pitcher at the plate, batting .237 in 224 career AB's.
Mark Prior (CHC) - Has shown flashes of sheer dominance since being the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft, and at age 25 is very capable of leapfrogging past everyone ahead of him on this list. Prior's problems are a myriad of injuries that have occurred over the last two years, and have resulted in mortal ERA?s of 4.02 and 3.67. Prior?s only thrown 285 MLB innings the last two years, so he's due for a big year.
Andy Pettitte (HOU) - As much ink as Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens deservingly received, Pettitte was quietly the Astros best pitcher last year, especially after the All-Star break where he posted an outstanding 1.69 ERA/.90 ratio. Only twice last year did Pettitte allow more than three runs in an outing in what has to be considered the best year of his career.
Ben Sheets (MIL) - Doesn't take a back seat to any of the top eight, but I feel he is the most likely of the top eight to miss significant time. Sheets has come down with bizarre inner-ear infections causing vertigo in each of the last two years and saw his 2005 season end when he hurt a back muscle that was attached to his pitching shoulder. Sheets struck out a whopping 264 batters in 2004 but is yet to win more than 12 games in a season. A high risk pitcher who still has to be taken highly if spring reports are encouraging.
John Smoltz (ATL) - One of the games all-time great competitors and a legitimate Hall Of Fame candidate, one gets the feeling that Smoltz's arm is hanging by a thread, although he wouldn?t let anyone know it. But still is as good as anyone when healthy. With the Braves not being able to find a reliable closer, a return to the bullpen also cannot be ruled out.
Jason Schmidt (SF) - A major disappointment in 2005, Schmidt showed signs of a rebound later on in the season. Ended the year still striking out nearly a batter per inning, an indication that he still has most of his velocity. Went 35-12 with a sub-3 ERA in 2003-04.
Tim Hudson (ATL) - The 'second-tier' starts here, as Hudson actually regressed a little moving to the National League. Also doesn?t strike out a great many, which keeps him out of the elite level. Still pitching for the Braves is usually good for at least 15 wins per season.
John Patterson (WSH) - Not overpowering by any stretch of the imagination, but was strong in four categories, including 185 strikeouts in 198 innings and a 3.13 ERA. Benefits by making use of RFK stadium, but don?t expect much improvement from his 9-7 mark last year as pitching for the Nats means coming out a lot of close games that ultimately get decided by the bullpen.
Brett Myers (PHI) - Would be among the elite if not for pitching in his home park. Myers held the opposition to a tidy .199 average on the road, but .264 with a 4.20 ERA at home.
Brandon Webb (AZ) - Still allows a few too many baserunners for my liking, but is slowly becoming a reliable starter and has posted ERA's in the 3.50 range the last two years.
Kerry Wood (CHC) - We're seemingly ranking K-Wood on potential every year, but has never been durable enough to win even 15 games in a season. However Wood has struck out well over one man per inning in recent years, although his control has never really improved markedly. One intriguing possibility has Wood moving into the bullpen as a potential closer.
Noah Lowry (SF) - The August 2005 NL Pitcher of the Month recorded a 5-0 record with a 0.69 ERA. Has a decent team behind him as well as a good home park. Although he will get strikeouts, he is not particularly overpowering.
Oliver Perez (PIT) - The wild card out of this group without a doubt. Was perhaps fantasy baseball's biggest bust last year with an injury riddled 5.85/1.67 campaign. But don't forget Perez fanned 239 in just 196 innings the previous year. Perez is slated to pitch for Mexico at the World Baseball Classic, you might be able to get a good gauge on him there.
Brad Penny (LA) - The best news with Penny last year is that he stayed relatively healthy. You may remember that one cent had an ERA just over three before getting shut down with a shoulder problem in 2004.
Zach Duke (PIT) - We're usually thinking a lot about Duke in March, usually in the form of NCAA basketball brackets and World Series of Poker reruns. But this Duke was making an impact last August and September winning eight games with an excellent 1.81 ERA. The worry here is the old theory of National league batters faring better the second time around.
Matt Morris (SF) - Has gotten wins in St. Louis the last few years, but his stirkeouts, ERA, and ratio have gone south in the process. The hope here is that he can improve somewhat in a pitchers park.
Mark Mulder (STL) - A premiere pitcher not too long ago, Mulder has posted ratios of 1.36 and 1.38 the last two years along with declining strikeout totals. Saving grace is a team behind him that wins 100+ games per year.
Doug Davis (MIL) - Pitched in a lot of tough luck last year only winding up with 11 wins. On the plus side, Davis surpassed everyone's expectations striking out 208 in 222.2 IP. Is not known as a power pitcher, so he could slide in some categories this year.
Matt Cain (SF) - Outside of Felix Hernandez, Cain is the hottest prospect among starting pitchers. After recording 2.33/.93 in 46 innings late last year, the hype is going to be off the charts. Must be considered for fantasy-cap style games.
Chris Young (SD) - Former basketballer is a prime sleeper for this year. Posted decent #'s (4.26/1.26) in the bandbox in Texas, so he could have a definite breakthrough moving to a pitchers park. Is a candidate for 180+ strikeouts.
Chris Capuano (MIL) - One of my darkhorses for the year. Capuano allows a lot of baserunners, but has slowly improved and also won 18 games last year. Gets good strikeout totals and his secret weapon is a wicked move to first base.
Roger Clemens (HOU) - He has to be ranked somewhere, I'm not just not ranking him that high. We know Clemens will pitch in the World Baseball Classic, but when we see him after that could be anyone's guess. Clemens is not eligible to re-sign with the Astros until May 1. The Rangers, Red Sox, and Yankees have all also been mentioned as possibilites, but Rocket may not decide until June or July, where he could ink with someone he identifies as a contender. Will get picked sooner than he should in most drafts, I'm not a fan of stashing someone away for half a season.
Anthony Reyes (STL) - If you can't get Cain, Reyes wouldn't be a bad option neither as he's expected to arrive in St. Louis for good after breezing through the Cards farm system in no time flat. Will rack up K's, striking out 276 in 239.2 minor league innings.
Jeff Suppan (STL) - Another Cards starter who should be considered for the sheer number of wins he will be guaranteed. Also had a nice ERA at 3.57 last year.
Livan Hernandez (WSH) - In an era where pitchers are handled with kid hands, Livan is a freak of nature averaging nearly 250 IP per year. What you get with all those innings isn't anything particulary special. Livan doesn't strike out a lot, but puts himself in line for plenty of wins staying in games until late where Chad Cordero can take over.
Jason Marquis (STL) - Your last chance to get a Cardinals stater here. Is good for upwards to 15 wins but will get cuffed around in the process.
Derek Lowe (LA) - Dodger Stadium did wonders for his ERA last year, which gave him something else to be known for rather than being a homewrecker in 2005.
Jon Lieber (PHI) - On the plus side, Lieber was able to win 17 games last year. The negative is Lieber gives up a ton of home runs which inflates his ERA.
Aaron Harang (CIN) - The closest thing to an ace the Reds have. Is surprisingly much more effective at home (3.31/1.17) than on the road (4.30/1.35).
Aaron Heilman (NYM) - Has more potential than most of the Mets starters, and had a 3.17 ERA averaging a strikeout per inning last year. A great sleeper candidate this year.
Jae Seo (LA) - Was outstanding with a 8-2 record and a 2.59 ERA in 90 IP pitched last year. Will he keep in up this year, or regress to his 2004 #'s (4.90/1.56).
Greg Maddux (CHC) - My celing for Maddux these days is relatively low, as he's winding down a spectacular career. Still doesn't allow a lot of free passes but gives up a lot of hits and his ERA has now climbed well above 4.
Jorge Sosa (ATL) - An unlikely story, Sosa was a former outfielder, then got cuffed around with the D-Rays for a few years before finding a home in Atlanta last year, winning 13 games with an impressive 2.55 ERA.
Odalis Perez (LA) - Not the greatest attitude in the world, but has to be consideration for being in LA, where he recorded a 3.25 ERA two years ago, but somehow only won seven games in 196 IP.
Tom Glavine (NYM) - A slew of borderline fantasy prospects from the Mets starts here. Glavine still records decent ERA's in the 3.50 range, but his strikeout pitch left him long ago.
Jerome Williams (CHC) - Was considered a star in the making when he broke in with the Giants a few years back. Considering the injuries the Cubs top starters often have, Williams could end up with an increased role.
David Bush (MIL) - Should find a home in the Brewers rotation this year, although he could end up in the bullpen as well, where he has experience.
John Thomson (ATL) - Pitching for the Braves is always good for a bunch of wins, but he gets cuffed around a bit.
Robinson Tejada (PHI) - Put up a nice strikeout ratio in limited innings last year, but has also had arm problems.
Tomo Ohka (MIL) - On the surface his ERA numbers haven't been bad, but isn't thought of as more than a #5 starter.
Brandon Claussen (CIN) - Value gets hurt by his home park where he gave up 15 of his 24 HR, on the road Claussen had a fairly decent 3.46 ERA with 55 K's in 75 IP.
Brandon Backe (HOU) - Will be over-rated on draft day due to what he's done in the playoffs the last couple years. His regular season numbers have been hardly fantasy-quality, but is still young and could improve this year.
Cory Lidle (PHI) - Won 13 games last year, but other numbers were not that impressive and he appears to have gotten a fragile psyche, not a good thing in Philadelphia.
Paul Maholm (PIT) - Like teammate Zach Duke, Malholm had a very impressive late-season run, recording a 2.18 ERA in 41 IP, but most of his time was logged facing other teams that were out of contention.
Jeff Francis (COL) - If you dare to consider a Rockies starter, Francis will probably be your best bet only because he has the highest celing. The scary thing is he actually was torched worse on the road (6.40/1.71) than at Coors Field (4.88/1.52) last year.
